6

Leaving, on a southern train, only yesterday, you lied. Promises of what I seemed to be, only watched the time, go by. All of these, things I said to you.

*********************************************

There’s a point in every election cycle where everything becomes white noise. Races you know are competitive, some poll says they aren’t. Races you know aren’t competitive, some poll says it is. Polling this late in the game is notoriously tough to believe, so you have to have an eye for what is what.

First, watch less polling and boasting by organizations about “what they’ve done” so far. Watch more for anomalies in early voting and where money moves. Elections aren’t horse races, they’re bean-counting. When resources move, it’s because votes could move.

In other words, let me give you a sleeper- Linda Coleman in NC-2. She’s tonight’s candidate of the night, a late-cycle mover who took some time to catch national eyes. She was recently put on “Red-to-Blue,” and the money has followed her in. Early vote for Democrats and non-white voters are popping in her district. She is the final type of piece in the potential Democratic Wave. Donate to her here. Volunteer for her here or here.

*********************************************

The other thing to watch in the final days is the tone of Republicans. Back in my home district, my state representative called the Democratic candidate a domestic terrorist. In New Jersey, rich-guy Bob Hugin is drumming up old, discredited attacks alleging Bob Menendez frequented Dominican prostitutes. Donald Trump is talking about a migrant caravan and birthright citizenship. This is all fear-mongering.

But what’s that mean? Don’t just assume this means Republicans are afraid. Let’s not forget, this is what motivates their base voters. They should be running scared, and hopefully are, but this is also what passes as Get Out The Vote for the GOP in 2018.

*********************************************

I’ll expand on this after the election, but Democratic field campaigns need a serious overhaul moving forward. It’s time to get organizers off of doors more, change their metric goals from dials to volunteers recruited, realize hitting doors more is good, that “street money”/paid canvass operations are not bad, but also that you need to give volunteers more options than just canvassing. Not all volunteers are able to go knock doors.

The one other piece we need to consider is who we spend our time on. We spend a ton of time mobilizing new and inconsistent voters, but we actually lost 2016 because some historically Democratic voters turned on us. It’ll be a while before we can nationally try to just forget about them- and we probably ethically shouldn’t then.

*********************************************

GOTV Playlist-

  1. Stone Temple Pilots- Interstate Love Song
  2. Pearl Jam- Black
  3. Notorious B.I.G.- Ten Crack Commandments
  4. The Rolling Stones- Angie
  5. Jay Z- Encore

*********************************************

Barring a recount I have to work, the plan for my DC Friends is to be in DC by the night of 11/15 for a night out. I haven’t decided yet if it will be on the Hill or in town.

*********************************************

I love my Phillies, but one of the things we are going to find out this Winter is if they love themselves. They’re a cash-rich franchise, in a big market, with very little committed payroll in the long term. If they want Bryce Harper and/or Manny Machado, they can afford them. Patrick Corbin? Why not. Craig Kimbrel? Absolutely. J.A. Happ, Dallas Keuchel, or Charlie Morton would all be upgrades too.

It’s good business for the Phillies to go sign these guys. Bryce Harper sells tickets. You aren’t going to lose money signing a superstar. With an 80 win team this past season, there’s no reason a big signing can’t thrust the young Phillies into contention.

The question is if they want it as badly as us fans do.

*********************************************

Tonight’s story of GOTV Past? The Iowa Caucus of 2008. Just after New Year’s, in the bitter cold, we went through the motions of GOTV for Senator Dodd. It was clear we weren’t going to win, but we were hoping for a surprising finish ahead of someone. It didn’t happen. We had walk packets and signs though for people to knock doors or do visibility leading up to the caucus. Some folks came down from Connecticut. The most intense part was coaching our captains on making a deal with the other campaign of their choice, in hopes of getting a delegate.

I remember emailing a friend the morning of the Caucus, predicting an Edwards, Clinton, Obama finish. If turnout had been a normal 125k, I was right. It was 250k caucusers who attended that night. I was in Grinnell, at the college that night, and witnessed an insane turnout. It was a liberal enough site that Hillary didn’t even win a delegate. That was kind of the story that night.

*********************************************

7

People asking me if I’m gonna give my chain back, that’ll be the same day I give the game back, and ya know the next question, yo, yo where Dame at? Let’s start the Indian dance to bring our reign back. What’s up with you and Jay man, are y’all okay man?

*********************************************

Today’s GOTV playlist:

  1. Diamonds from Sierra-Leone- Kanye West
  2. Crazy- Aerosmith
  3. It’s Good to be King- Tom Petty
  4. PSA- Jay Z
  5. Victory- Puff Daddy

*********************************************

Tonight’s candidate of the night is Donna Shalala. The former HHS Secretary in the Clinton Administration served over a decade as President of the University of Miami. Now she is running for Congress in FL-27.

If Donna doesn’t win, our majority is in doubt. So is winning the White House in 2020. Donate to Donna here. Volunteer here.

*********************************************

I’ve seen a lot of disgusting negative attacks in my day, and I’m not against negative campaigning, but State Rep. Joe Emrick went to a new low back home. He basically accused Amy Cozze of being a domestic terrorist for putting glitter in a parking ticket envelope. No, seriously. This is so far and away over the top that he should be ashamed.

Donate to Amy here.

*********************************************

Tonight’s GOTV past story? The 2014 Bonnie Watson Coleman/Cory Booker Central Jersey operation. I’m one of the worst cycles for Democrats in recent memory, we elected the first African-American Congresswoman in New Jersey history, with 61% of the vote. We did so in the whitest district of any member of the Congressional Black Caucus.

The memories about this race are numerous and kind of awesome. I remember staying in a hotel room as a team on route 1. I remember figuring out that local committee people liked to hang out in the office at night after we left (we found the beer cans- good choice guys). I loved going between the four counties in the district and feeling like I was in a different world.

I really enjoyed the winning though.

*********************************************

I love the Sixers young talent, but nothing in the first few games suggests they’ve made the leap from very good to title contender. Tonight’s loss to Toronto is the latest evidence. I’m not saying I’d trade four firsts for Jimmy Butler, but I’m not saying I wouldn’t either.

*********************************************

We apparently have an O’Keefe style right-wing infiltrator in Mecklenburg County trying to get Democratic operatives, candidates, and activists to say crazy things.

One week. 🙃

8

Sometimes I feel like I don’t have a partner, sometimes I feel like my only friend, is the city I live in, the city of Angels. Lonely as I am, together we cry.

*********************************************

Today was a weird day. It began with the news of a school shooting in Matthews, a community in southeast Mecklenburg County. Fortunately, it was not a mass-shooting, it was a dispute between two people. Unfortunately, the victim died. Coming on the news of the heinous shooting in Pittsburgh, it’s all enough to make you quite sad. It’s enough to shake your faith in humanity.

The gun control debate has become quite tiring. Neither side has nudged any closer to the other. That’s sad, because most of the public agrees- some people shouldn’t have access to guns. The mentally ill, convicted felons, domestic abusers- none of them should have a gun. Almost everybody agrees. That won’t fix everything, but it will at least help some things.

*********************************************

Tonight’s GOTV playlist:

  1. Red Hot Chili Peppers- Under the Bridge
  2. 50 Cent- Piggy Bank
  3. Eric Clapton- Layla
  4. Rihanna- S.O.S.
  5. Aerosmith- Living on the Edge

*********************************************

Tonight’s candidate of the night is Jon Tester. Senator Tester has served as a leader in Montana’s State Senate, and for two terms in the U.S. Senate. Despite the state’s Republican tilt, Tester has managed to keep winning.

Tester is the kind of Senator who is a majority maker. If Democrats can keep him in the Senate, a majority will be in reach soon. Donate here. Volunteer here.

*********************************************

Tonight’s story of GOTV past- the 2008 PA HDCC. The story of that cycle was winning in spite of everything. Yes, Barack Obama won Pennsylvania big, but not necessarily in the most competitive House seats. We also had a cool dozen Democratic State house members and staffers indicted in conjunction with the “BonusGate” investigation. Despite that, we grew our 102-101 majority to 104-99. It remains the high water mark for PA Dems since 1992.

*********************************************

For my money, this is my wish list for the Phillies off-season:

  1. Bryce Harper
  2. Manny Machado
  3. Patrick Corbin
  4. Craig Kimbrel
  5. Cole Hamels (if available)

*********************************************

9

Please allow me to introduce myself, I’m a man of wealth and taste. I’ve been around for a long, long year- stolen many a man’s soul to waste. I was around when Jesus Christ had his moment of doubt and pain. Made damn sure that Pilate washed his hands, and sealed his fate. Pleased to meet you, hope you guessed my name. But what’s puzzling you is the, nature of my game.

*********************************************

I figured out something today as I was thinking- My ideological leanings are off in 2018’s politics. I’m definitely in agreement with Democrats on things like taxes, unions, reproductive rights, the environment, public education, and a host of other things. I just don’t hate Republicans like most partisan activists hate each other.

I’m trying to figure it out. I really am.

*********************************************

Today’s candidate of the day is Susan Wild, the Democratic nominee in PA-7, my home district. Susan was not initially my pick back in the primary, but she is absolutely mine now. I share her political values and think she’ll vote right.

Susan is going to Washington to make sure Lehigh Valley residents have access to quality health care. Her opponent will go to Washington to vote for Donald Trump’s agenda. I can’t have that from my Congressperson. Join me in donating to her here. Volunteer here.

*********************************************

Today’s GOTV playlist:

  1. The Rolling Stones- Sympathy for the Devil
  2. Aerosmith- Cryin’
  3. Notorious B.I.G.- Back to Cali
  4. Oasis- Wonderwall
  5. Rancid- Timebomb

*********************************************

I almost feel bad for Clayton Kershaw. For as great as we’re told he is, he quite literally can’t win the big one. Tonight he simply got out pitched- by David Price, no less. That’s David Price that three weeks ago was considered a loser in big games too, but then morphed into Mr. October.

Maybe it’s time for the Dodgers to accept what is. Clayton Kershaw and Kenley Jansen are that bad on the big stage. I’m not sure what else to say.

*********************************************

Tonight’s GOTV story from the past- the year was 2013, the setting was the shadow of Gotham. It was Rockland County to be exact, the place my parents once lived before I was born. Our candidate was David Fried, now a judge in Ramapo. I was air dropped in just a couple weeks before the September primary with my “cop partner” Sally, and we won an upset for the nomination. While our cast of former Clinton Administration/Campaign hands came up like 200 votes short in the end of the Executive’s office, the late night data and beer festivals and meeting President Clinton was a thrill.

*********************************************

I’ll expand on this tomorrow, but I’m calling a 2006-esque 30 seat gain for Democrats in the House, and a 225-210 Majority. That could be a problem.

10

Dear mother can you hear me laughing? It’s been six whole months since I have left your home. It makes me wonder why I’m still here. For some strange reason it’s now feeling like my home. And I’m never gonna go.

*********************************************

Ten days. Tonight’s candidate of the night is Claudette Williams. Claudette is an immigrant from Jamaica, a former Sargeant Major in the Army, Mt. Pocono Councilwoman, and mother. She’s running in PA’s 176th House district, nestled in Northeast PA’s Monroe County. It’s a 51% Democratic district that Barack Obama won, but Hillary Clinton did not.

This is the kind of seat we need to win. Claudette is the kind of candidate that we need to elect. Volunteer here. Donate here.

*********************************************

So I fell asleep last night with the Red Sox set to go up 3-0. Then Ian Kinsler threw a ball away and it’s the Red Sox who need to win game four.

I don’t really love either team. In fact I hope both lose. But they can’t. So let’s hope that the series stays at least competitive.

*********************************************

GOTV stories from the past- tonight’s story from campaigns past is NJDSC 2012- the coordinated campaign for Bob Menendez. I had Central Jersey for the Menendez Campaign, covering Middlesex, Mercer, Monmouth, and Somerset Counties, covering the Congressional districts of Frank Pallone and Rush Holt. We won by a large margin, the largest since Bill Bradley in 1984. That’s not the main story though.

The main part of that story that is memorable was the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy. I never saw destruction like that. Long Branch looked like a bomb dropped there. Our get out the vote plan was wiped out by the unprecedented damage.

The remarkable part was the recovery. We found hundreds, even thousands of paid canvassers on the campus of Rutgers, union canvassers, and even local activists. We sent buses all over the state, turning out voters just days after a catastrophe. The good old days.

*********************************************

Tonight’s five GOTV songs:

  1. Green Day- Welcome to Paradise
  2. Stevie Wonder- Signed, Sealed, Delivered
  3. The Game, feat. Lil’ Wayne- My Life
  4. The Rolling Stones- Sympathy for the Devil
  5. Foo Fighters- Everlong

*********************************************

My Senate projections at this point-

  • Current breakdown- GOP 51 Democrats 49
  • Potential Democratic pick-ups, in order of likelihood- Nevada, Arizona, Tennessee, Texas, Mississippi
  • Potential Republican pick-ups, in order of likelihood- North Dakota, Missouri, Florida, Indiana, Montana, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania
  • Prediction- Democrats win Nevada. Republicans win North Dakota and Missouri.
  • NEW SENATE- GOP 52 Democrats 48

*********************************************

Notre Dame stayed undefeated tonight. I am quite happy. I’m unhappy they beat Navy though. I always like Navy- my grandfather was a Korean War Navy vet.

11

And then there were 11… pictured above are some hot dogs from JJ’s Red Hots over on East Blvd. in Charlotte. How did I find the place? My sister told me about it. How did she find out? “Diners, Drive-In’s and Dives.”

My verdict? I’m a fan.

*********************************************

Democrats face a lot of structural disadvantages in American legislative elections. There’s money, gerrymandering, voter consistency, and the electorate self-sorting, to name a few. Despite all of that, despite the late-breaking nature of the Kavanaugh confirmation, there seems to be an expectation of Democratic victory in 11 days. I’m struggling to see why?

Yes, Donald Trump is polarizing, but his not-so-hot approval ratings aren’t that crazy off of President Obama’s in 2010- which was a terrible year for Democrats, but see the list above for why things aren’t all created equal. The last big wave in a midterm for Democrats was in 2006, Dubbya’s second midterm, when he was considerably less popular than Trump is today (and the nation was less gerrymandered)- and Democrats nabbed 30 seats. For context, 30 seats would give Democrats a narrow 225-210 majority.

There’s lots of unfounded assumptions about 2018. Don’t assume them.

*********************************************

My playlist today is all over the place. I’m currently on TLC’s “Waterfalls,” but was just listening to Motörhead. Earlier it was Aerosmith’s “Crazy.” Get out the vote time makes for odd behavior. It makes for even odder musical choices.

*********************************************

Tonight’s candidate of the night is Congressman Jared Polis. Congressman Polis is the Democratic nominee for Governor of Colorado. If Polis is elected, he’ll be the first openly gay man to serve as Governor. He’d be doing so in a swing state, no less.

Donate here. Volunteer here.

*********************************************

Tomorrow the Governor is coming down to turf, so in honor of him, I figured I’d do my Governor race projections. There are 36 Governor elections being held in 2018, and the current split of governors is 33-16-1. 26 Republican Governorships are up this year, with 12 being open. Nine Democratic seats are up, and 4 are open. If I were predicting today, the Democrats will hold all nine of their seats, with the toughest races ending up in Colorado and Connecticut. In addition, I would predict Democratic pick-ups in Maine, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, and Nevada, giving Democrats a net gain of eight seats, up to 24. I would predict a narrow loss in Florida, and competitive losses in Georgia, South Carolina, Arizona, Kansas, New Hampshire, and South Dakota. The split will be 25-24-1, as it stands.

*********************************************

Early hot takes on ESPN on whether or not the Sixers are still a top three team in the East warm my heart. To be clear, you shouldn’t even consider this until Christmas, but that’s even more clear here. Let’s see if Fultz is growing into the player they hoped by New Year’s, how Zhaire looks when healthy, and if the team can pick up a difference maker via trade. Nothing that happens in October means that much.

12

The dirty dozen- you have left the teens. We are 12 days from the 2018 Election.

Today, the question is whether the news still matters and influences this election? The dropping stock market, the Saudi government killing people, bombs being sent to many of the major figures of the American left, the fallout over Brett Kavanaugh’s appointment to the high court- does any of it matter?

We’ll know in twelve days.

*********************************************

Today’s candidate of the day is Andy Kim. Andy’s race against Donald Trump’s favorite New Jersey Congressman, Tom MacArthur. You may re-call MacArthur as the author of the ACA repeal.

He has to go. Andy is the guy to beat him. A national security staffer in the Obama Administration, Andy will make South Jersey proud. Donate to him here. Volunteer here. This race is razor close, and could be the difference in winning or losing the House.

*********************************************

The Phillies have been celebrating the ten year anniversary of the 2008 World Series win on social media of late, and I obviously am enjoying it. Every time I think back to being in that stadium the night of game three, or watching Brad Lidge strike out Eric Hinske to win, I get a smile on my face just remembering what a beautiful, happy time the Fall of 2008 was for me.

When I think of the World Series though, my mind returns to the Fall of 1993, when a ten year old Rich went with his father to see Game 4 of that World Series at Veterans Stadium, a game the Blue Jays won 15-14. Lenny Dykstra hit two homers in that slugfest, one that was eventually lost on the first (and less famous) Mitch Williams loss in that Series.

Sure, the result was disappointing- but it was the experience that counted. I still have the programs from that game at home somewhere, and the leaf covered cover stands out in my mind.

I love 2008, but 1993 is forever on my mind.

*********************************************

Donald Trump is coming to South Charlotte tomorrow, and I couldn’t be happier. The reason Mark Harris is in a tight race with Dan McCready, besides McCready being an ideal candidate in an ideal time, is that the traditionally Republican, higher educated, wealthier white areas in and around Charlotte don’t like Trump and this GOP. Sending Trump to campaign for Harris here is just dumping salt into that wound. Frankly, it’s what Democrats should want. The district runs hours to the east, all the way to Fayetteville. If Trump were campaigning out there, to his base, he may be able to excite his base and narrow the enthusiasm gap.

Anyhow, I’m glad the President could be of help to our cause here.

*********************************************

I made a big decision tonight- I started Jared Goff over Big Ben in my fantasy football league. I’m lucky to have two very good QB’s in a dynasty/keeper league. Goff better deliver, I can’t keep riding Saquon.

*********************************************

When this election is all set and over, one of the things to watch will be how many “establishment style” candidates made pick-ups for Democrats, and how many of the more “progressive rhetoric” Democrats made gains. To be clear, I think they’re all pretty close on most ideological questions, I think the gap is style and willingness to compromise. It will be interesting to see if Democrats do better with more aggressively progressive Gubernatorial nominees in places like Georgia and Florida, or with more “traditional” liberals in places like Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. It’s also possible that the data shows no difference, or is inconclusive. The importance could be instructive though heading into 2020- did activist favorites like Beto flip Texas, did a more old-school candidate like Bredesen flip Tennessee, did both win, or neither? Democrats may be wise to look at that before jumping head first into more “resistance” style politics for 2020.

*********************************************

I’m going to close tonight on a subject of personal debate- capitalism vs. socialism. Since 2016, I have been extremely critical of socialism, and those who self-describe themselves as socialists. It is often a dealbreaker for me in party primaries. I am not a socialist. I don’t support “the people” seizing the “means of production.” I’m not even comfortable with the “99% vs. 1%” rhetoric some of the left embraces. I don’t tolerate AOC or Bernie Sanders, much less support them.

That is viewing this in the context of an “or” debate. Since I don’t support socialism, I’ve accepted as fact that I support capitalism. What if I put “capitalism” under the same scrutiny. To be clear, I don’t accept that tax cuts for the rich and de-regulation are a “must” part of capitalism, they are a choice made by elected officials in a republic, but they aren’t intrinsic to capitalism. Europe has capitalism without them. With that established, what if I scrutinized capitalism much like socialism?

Capitalism does a good job financing the society we have, but is that a good defense of it? What about our crumbling infrastructure, underfunded schools, homeless veterans, tens of millions without health insurance, and all of our other social failings are not being financed by the political decisions made by our republic, under this capitalist system. As a liberal American, and even in fact as a true believing Christian, there is no way I can say that what we have for an economic system is doing the things I want our economy to do- provide for the common welfare, provide meaningful labor for the masses, enrich our societal fabric, and help the less fortunate. What we have doesn’t work.

I still believe in the theoretical concept of free enterprise and markets. We need our system to look much more like a European capitalist country though- more regulation, the wealthy paying their fair share of the taxes, and a national budget that reflects our values and needs.

So perhaps I’m at least scrutinizing my own position a bit more than those on the socialist-left are scrutinizing their’s.

13

There are 13 days remaining in the 2018 Election, also known as less than two weeks. Information about the election appears to depict a close race. Turnout should be considerably lower than a Presidential election, despite the crucial nature of these elections. Governorships, the Senate, the U.S. House, state legislative seats, and thousands of county and local offices are at stake- but the majority of voters won’t show up. Let that sink in.

More after the jump…

*********************************************

Clayton Kershaw dropped another dud in the World Series/Playoffs. The guy is going to end up with a sub-3.00 career ERA and a boatload of individual awards, but he’s about as unclutch as they come.

By the way, I know he and Sale were both less than great last night, but this trend of pulling guys early drives me nuts. If the game’s tight, at least get six innings.

*********************************************

And so the bomb went off- not literally, thank God. CNN, Hillary Clinton, and Barack Obama all received “suspicious packages,” all of which thankfully didn’t explode. It’s a serious enough situation that even Donald Trump talked about unifying. It’s dead serious. George Soros, Eric Holder, and Maxine Waters have also been targets, and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz has been listed as a return address.

This shouldn’t be construed as a left/right thing. Donald Trump is not the “liable” party here, he’s not sending these explosives. His rhetoric is enabling nuts though, nuts of all stripes. Let’s not lose sight of the reality- Donald Trump’s dividing us, and it could be fatal for some.

*********************************************

Today’s candidate of the day is Joe Donnelly. The Senator from Indiana was a surprising winner in 2012, but now is battling for his second term in Mike Pence’s home state.

Whether you believe Democrats are going to win back the Senate in 2018 or 2020, Donnelly is part of the math. Donate to him here. Volunteer for him here.

*********************************************

It seems increasingly clear that the people voting early are the most motivated voters- the regular voters. In fact, Nate Silver even suggests that the election looks similar to 2014, more so than 2016.

What this suggests, as I’ve said throughout this cycle, is that 2018 is a persuasion election, not a base election, at least if your goal is electing a Democratic Speaker of the House. Get mad if you’d like at that statement, but American elections will be decided in the suburbs for some time.

*********************************************

Tonight’s House projection- Democrats 232 Republicans 203.

*********************************************

14

Two weeks. Two weeks. This will all be over in two weeks. The ads. The mail. The coverage of the midterm- all over.

I voted yesterday. I voted straight Democratic, although I checked them individually. I must say I wasn’t really proud of my vote this year, amazingly. There were at least one or two races where I had misgivings with our candidates. With that said, the idea of voting Republican, so long as Trump leads their party, was worse. I don’t love the post-2016 Democratic Party, but I deeply dislike what the Republican Party is being lead by more.

*********************************************

Today’s candidate of the day is Senator Bob Menendez. There is no doubt that Senator Menendez has had a tough couple of years, but let’s not forget- he’s been cleared now. He remains a leading Democratic voice on foreign policy, on immigration, on raising wages, protecting health care, and bringing home federal dollars for New Jersey. He’s actually outstanding at doing the job of Senator.

Democrats need him to win, too. Bob Hugin is a pharma executive and Trump stooge. He made his money gauging the public for medicine. Donate here to stop him.

*********************************************

Has Manny Machado’s antics lowered his value in free agency? My answer is no. Would I like him to be more mature if the Phillies give him $300 million? Yes. I’d also like him to keep being an impact player like he has. Sure, I prefer signing Bryce Harper, but I always did. Frankly, I want both. Machado is a game changer.

*********************************************

Try not to over read early vote numbers- they obviously matter, but with many caveats. It’s a small sample size, for one. Two, we don’t know enough about the voters. If they’re Democrats or Republicans who would regularly vote, that’s no win for anyone? Possible surge voters? That’s good. New voters? Gold. Until you show me that, I can’t tell you who’s winning. All I do know is Democrats should be outright winning early vote- and that’s not clear.

*********************************************

Donald Trump is coming to Charlotte on Friday to do a rally for Mark Harris, the social conservative nut that thinks wives must submit to their husbands. I’m not going to watch this national disgrace, but I’m tempted to go people watch the line.

*********************************************

What if I win? That’s the question I keep asking myself about tonight’s lottery. If I win, then what? Would I ever work again? Would I go back to Easton? Would I even stay in America? I would buy a share of the Phillies though, for sure.

Good thing I won’t win.

*********************************************

Today’s Senate Projection- Republicans 52 Democrats 48

*********************************************

15

There are 15 days left until the 2018 midterm elections. The national narrative seems to be heightened interest in voting this year- potentially on both sides, which may mean blunted Democratic gains. The other part of this narrative is Trump’s rising approval. It seems that some folks are buying into a counter, Republican wave that negates much of the Democratic wave.

I think people are missing the main point here- not all enthusiasm is equal. As Nate Silver put it on Twitter, even above average Republican interest for a midterm would get crushed if Democratic interest in voting hit low-end Presidential levels, and vice-versa. This means that the question is, a.) is Democratic interest in this election truly extraordinary, and b.) does it extend beyond the base?

More after the jump…

*********************************************

I’m not that interested in this World Series. I am, but I can’t be. I didn’t pick the Red Sox or Dodgers to win. I pretty much despise both. Both fail the “Yankees test”- do I like when they beat the Yankees. If I’m happy to see the Yankees beat a team, I don’t like that team. That’s the case for both here.

For what it’s worth, Chase Utley doesn’t tip my allegiance to the Dodgers at all- he’s not playing. I also don’t think Southern California should even have sports, no one cares there. On the other hand, I can’t cheer for MassHole franchises or anything Curt Schilling likes.

Just kill me already.

*********************************************

This 2018 Election is not a base election for Democrats. This is not to say Democrats should totally abandon their base, it’s to say that their base can’t do much more for them. Democrats hold pretty much all the African-American based and majority-minority based seats. Democrats dominate urban areas that tend to have unmarried and non-white, Democratic voting women. Motivate your base all you want, this election is about educated, suburban white people. How they vote seems to determine this election.

The good news is that white voters appear to be separating along educational lines. The latest NBC/WSJ polling is showing a dramatic divide- college educated white men are narrowly breaking Democratic, while non-college educated white men are going Republican by 40%. College educated white women are giving Democrats a lead of over 30%, while non-college educated white women give the GOP a narrow lead.

The good news for Democrats? College educated whites are who lives in swing districts.

*********************************************

I feel like I missed out majorly on a life experience by not getting up to the Smokey Mountains with my family the past few days. My family and extended family were up in Plumtree, NC for a few days. I intended to go see them. Work made it impossible to go up to Grandfather Mountain.

Themes the breaks!

*********************************************

I love that state legislative elections are centering around the basics- education, health care, taxes, clean drinking water, and infrastructure, again. None of these national distractions. Nothing divisive, really. These issues effect us all, and reflect genuine disagreement.

*********************************************

Today’s candidate of the day is Dan McCready, the Democratic candidate in NC-9 for Congress. Running in a seat Republicans have held since the era of JFK, McCready is exactly the kind of candidate who could win in Southern North Carolina.

Dan’s race could be key to who controls the House. You can donate to him here. You can volunteer here.

*********************************************

For every revolution, there is a counter-revolution. I said this yesterday, but I applied it to modern American politics. Apply it to some other revolutions and events though for a minute. The failure of the Articles of Confederation, Shays Rebellion, and the acceptance of English Common Law were all pushback against the American Revolution. The Reformation was a counter-revolution against the revolution that made the Vatican the center of the Western World. The sexual revolution of the 1960’s directly lead to the rise of the moral majority. The Magna Carta didn’t last long after it’s revolutionary signing. Revolutions always welcome a response. While we don’t always celebrate that response, it is often times very popular.

And it can lead to some dark places.