11

And then there were 11… pictured above are some hot dogs from JJ’s Red Hots over on East Blvd. in Charlotte. How did I find the place? My sister told me about it. How did she find out? “Diners, Drive-In’s and Dives.”

My verdict? I’m a fan.

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Democrats face a lot of structural disadvantages in American legislative elections. There’s money, gerrymandering, voter consistency, and the electorate self-sorting, to name a few. Despite all of that, despite the late-breaking nature of the Kavanaugh confirmation, there seems to be an expectation of Democratic victory in 11 days. I’m struggling to see why?

Yes, Donald Trump is polarizing, but his not-so-hot approval ratings aren’t that crazy off of President Obama’s in 2010- which was a terrible year for Democrats, but see the list above for why things aren’t all created equal. The last big wave in a midterm for Democrats was in 2006, Dubbya’s second midterm, when he was considerably less popular than Trump is today (and the nation was less gerrymandered)- and Democrats nabbed 30 seats. For context, 30 seats would give Democrats a narrow 225-210 majority.

There’s lots of unfounded assumptions about 2018. Don’t assume them.

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My playlist today is all over the place. I’m currently on TLC’s “Waterfalls,” but was just listening to Motörhead. Earlier it was Aerosmith’s “Crazy.” Get out the vote time makes for odd behavior. It makes for even odder musical choices.

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Tonight’s candidate of the night is Congressman Jared Polis. Congressman Polis is the Democratic nominee for Governor of Colorado. If Polis is elected, he’ll be the first openly gay man to serve as Governor. He’d be doing so in a swing state, no less.

Donate here. Volunteer here.

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Tomorrow the Governor is coming down to turf, so in honor of him, I figured I’d do my Governor race projections. There are 36 Governor elections being held in 2018, and the current split of governors is 33-16-1. 26 Republican Governorships are up this year, with 12 being open. Nine Democratic seats are up, and 4 are open. If I were predicting today, the Democrats will hold all nine of their seats, with the toughest races ending up in Colorado and Connecticut. In addition, I would predict Democratic pick-ups in Maine, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, and Nevada, giving Democrats a net gain of eight seats, up to 24. I would predict a narrow loss in Florida, and competitive losses in Georgia, South Carolina, Arizona, Kansas, New Hampshire, and South Dakota. The split will be 25-24-1, as it stands.

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Early hot takes on ESPN on whether or not the Sixers are still a top three team in the East warm my heart. To be clear, you shouldn’t even consider this until Christmas, but that’s even more clear here. Let’s see if Fultz is growing into the player they hoped by New Year’s, how Zhaire looks when healthy, and if the team can pick up a difference maker via trade. Nothing that happens in October means that much.

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