I used to pray for times like this to rhyme like this, so I had to grind like that to shine like this, in a matter of time I spent on some locked up $hit, in the back of the paddy wagon cuffs locked on wrists.
See my dreams unfold, nightmares come true, it was time to marry the game, so I said yeah I do, if you want it you gotta see it with a clear-eyed view…
Tomorrow is the 2018 Election in the United States of America. Tomorrow, 435 seats in the House, over a third of the Senate, most of the Governors, and almost all of the state legislatures are on the ballot. It is the first federal election held nationally since 11/8/2016, when Donald Trump was elected President by a minority of the people.
I have already cast my ballot in Pennsylvania, by absentee. I hope you will do your civic duty as well. While our democracy can annoy us all, those who don’t participate don’t deserve it.
One of the amazing things about this election has been the rise of the citizen candidate. Small-business owners, veterans, union guys, and moms are just some of the normal, common people that stepped up to run. It should make you feel better about our democracy, I hope.
There is a flip side that we’ll see tomorrow though- many of them will lose. Even in this wave, this backlash election, over 80% of Congress will return. The percentage in some state legislatures could be higher. Incumbents enjoy huge advantages in American politics.
But- look to the bright side- the energy in this country right now is unprecedented. Let’s see where it goes.
So I’ve predicted a 50-50 Senate GOP Majority (because of Pence), a 230-205 Democratic House, and a 25-24-1 Democratic split in Governor’s mansions. What if I’m being too conservative? What if a bigger wave hits? What would it look like?
On the Governor side, I said Democrats will win Maine, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, Florida, New Mexico, and Nevada. Georgia is obviously very close, but what else would tip? South Dakota is a popular choice, as are Kansas and New Hampshire. Some are hoping Vermont or Arizona get in here, thoug that seems less likely. A dozen Governorships seem possible though, in more than just our dreams.
In the Senate, it feels like the national climate has both already propped up Democrats in a lot of swing and Trump states like Ohio and Pennsylvania. That same climate seems to be hurting Democrats in North Dakota and Missouri trying to save their seats. Could the Democrats win back the Senate though? Obviously a Heitkamp and/or McCaskill win would do wonders for the math. The Democrats have to pick up a net of two seats, which is very hard, but not impossible, even if those two women lose. Any road to a majority begins with wins in Nevada and Arizona late tomorrow night. Then the Democrats would need to flip both Tennessee and Texas- both difficult, but literally tens of thousands of new voters came out of the woodwork to vote early in both seats. Democrats will need to hold their slim leads in Montana, Indiana, and Florida as well, or shock us in a state like Mississippi. On the high end, Democrats could win four seats tomorrow night, and get to 52 Senate seats. That’s the high end though.
Then there’s the U.S. House. I upped my thinking from 30 to 35 in recent days, but what if it’s bigger? What if Pennsylvania supplies five, California six, New Jersey four, Texas four, Florida three, and North Carolina four, just for starters? That’s 26 seats, and an almost certain majority on the backs of six states. There are 44 more states with varying degrees of competitive seats. There are seats in Maine, Michigan, Georgia, Iowa, Colorado, Washington, Kansas, Illinois, New York, and others. There are 100 competitive seats on the board. If the ground moved 3% left in the closing month, as Nate Cohn from the New York Times suggested, the road to 50 seats for Democrats is plausible. A 245-190 Majority is possible.
Obviously the most important, but hardest to forecast races are state legislative ones, and if Democrats are truly successful, they will be the biggest winners. If you start hearing of whole chambers flipping, you’ll know a wave is coming. The over/under here is probably a half-dozen, though that isn’t scientific.
Today’s GOTV playlist:
- Meek Mill- Dreams and Nightmares
- Aerosmith- Dream On
- Jay Z and Linkin Park- Encore
- Linkin Park- In The End
- Nas- One Mic
Lots more tomorrow…