Goodbye, 2018

It’s all over. The election is over. With a little over a week’s time now gone by, it’s fair to make some assumptions about 2020, and re-write some assumptions about 2018.

  • Winners from Tuesday- Amy Klobuchar and Sherrod Brown jump out to me. Based on what the battleground looks like, these are the only two contenders who saw their chances significantly upgrade. Small ups for Eric Garcetti and Kamala Harris with the West in such play.
  • No Longer Swing-States- Let’s throw Virginia, New Mexico, and Colorado in the “Blue” column. Texas and Georgia ain’t really swing yet. Ohio, Florida, and Iowa delivered mixed signals, but shouldn’t be centerpieces in the Democratic strategy right now.
  • The Berniecrats weren’t players- Show me a swing seat they won. Show me a narrow seat he campaigned in?
  • Lefty Heroes didn’t do the heavy lifting- Beto, Gillum, and Abrams all appear, at the moment, to have come up short. This was an establishment wave. That doesn’t say it wasn’t diverse, liberal, exciting, or anything else, but it was establishment campaign models that won. If you couldn’t win in 2018, you just can’t win. You won if you ran a traditional campaign.
  • The Senate Democrats… won?- Hear me out. They probably lost one to two seats this cycle. Losing is bad. Democrats were defending ten Trump-state seats. If all they lost this cycle is two, call it a win. Especially with two better cycles ahead.
  • History was made- Whether it was Colorado, the Kansas City suburbs of Kansas, Pennsylvania, Iowa, or any number of places, history was made. “Firsts” were made all over the country.
  • You saw the future- The re-alignment we are in is showing the long-term future. The House will be more Democratic If suburban, educated whites are coming over. The Senate will be more Republican as the population becomes more lopsided.

With all of that, it’s worth understanding- things change fast. No one saw Hillary losing in the Rust Belt until the ground had shifted. The last two years were very unique. The next two are likely to be, as well.

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