There’s 50 days to go. National polling remains remarkably steady. RCP shows a 7.1% Biden lead, which is remarkably consistent since the conventions. FiveThirtyEight shows Biden winning 76 in 100 simulations, which is also remarkably steady. 538 also shows Biden up 7%, 50.5-43.5%. Perhaps most importantly, Biden is consistently polling at 48% (Hillary/Kerry) or higher, while Trump has not surpassed his 46% from 2016 at all in recent polling. The polling is remarkably steady. The race does not have much in common with 2016. Both averages in the polls here show undecideds as a low number, about 6-7%. Biden’s lead, in the RCP average, is 5.3% bigger than Hillary’s on this date. In short, Biden has a steady, durable, substantial lead. Right now this race looks much more like 2012 than 2016. The likely tipping point state is Pennsylvania, right now.
Today’s insane story is a Georgia ICE detention center apparently had a doctor performing a massive number of hysterectomies on Latinas in custody. This is clearly, massively f***ed up, and deeply disturbing. There are some reports coming out that this may not be what it seems, and I hope they’re true, but this is something to watch.
On a happier note, I saw an old college friend for the first time in over a decade when I dropped her a Biden-Harris sign. She’s about to be a mother, which is awesome, and she’s currently a public defender in Lehigh County. As a strange aside, she was in law school with my little sister just a couple years ago.
Tomorrow we move into the 40’s for days remaining. I’m ready for this to get to zero.