2020, in a nutshell.

We’re one day closer to this election being over, thank goodness. Joe Biden’s 538 lead is steady at 7%. His RCP lead is also at 7% nationally today. That’s good for 5.9% better than Hillary on this same date. Stability is the name of the game this year. New polling puts Biden way up in Virginia and Wisconsin, up in North Carolina, and up in one Florida poll and tied in the other. The Wisconsin poll seems significant, but the state of the race in Florida could be decisive with Bloomberg getting ready to weigh in. This week Biden has held leads greater than 5% in polls that when combined with “safe” states, equal 257 electoral votes. I’m not counting Pennsylvania or Florida in there (Pennsylvania would count if I said last week), but either of them or North Carolina would get the job done.

If Pennsylvania goes red again, which feels unlikely but not impossible, write down my reason I believe it’s possible: the Governor’s decision to include real estate in his earlier shut down orders. Pennsylvania was the only state in the union to do so, and the decision angered a well organized, relatively bi-partisan industry, with a fairly active state level PAC and lobbying effort. Just keep this in the back of your mind.

Nothing else for today, we’ll be back tomorrow.

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