48.

We have major problems

Well, we’re another day closer to the election. Not much changed today in the polls. FiveThirtyEight lowered Biden’s lead to 6.9%, while RCP days it’s down to 5.9%. Why? Rasmussen came out with a poll giving Trump a 1% lead. Should you take it seriously? Well, YouGov and Reuters put out polls showing Biden up 9% today. Rasmussen is showing Trump at least 5% higher than any other pollster this week. Without Rasmussen, all the other polls on RCP average out to Biden by 6.75%. On 538’s numbers, without Rasmussen, it’s Biden by roughly 7.5%. This race remains not very close.

Out in the states, the polling is remarkably stable too. Like nationally, the reality is that there are very few undecideds. Less than 10% of the electorate, both nationally and in the states, are still undecided. While Biden’s leads fluctuate in size, almost no poll puts him outside of 2% from 50%, if not higher. That’s the number to watch. These polls look a lot more like 2012 than 2016.

Ok, so the picture above… wow. 23% of Americans aged 18 to 39 think the Holocaust is a myth or exaggerated. Almost 2/3 didn’t know 6 million Jews were killed. I mean, this is beyond alarming. These very, very lost people get to vote in our country, if they want. I don’t hold my generation’s politics in super high regard, but this is totally scary. And shocking.

In an unrelated, but funny note, I present the greatest thing on Twitter. Thank me later.

Quick Senate note- the Democrats need to pick up at least three seats. Assuming they are favored to lose Alabama, that makes it four. Polling in Arizona and Colorado suggests the Democrats are in good shape to make pick-ups. Polling suggests Maine is moving that way too. That puts the Senate on North Carolina, Iowa, Montana, Georgia, and South Carolina as the most likely tipping points (in order). For what it’s worth, that’s my map.

That’s all for tonight. We’ll be back tomorrow.

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