So, it’s the day after the first political earthquake of the Fall. RBG has died. Donald Trump has vowed a nominee this week. Mitch McConnell has vowed a vote. If they get their way, everything from health insurance to LGBTQ rights, immigration rights to Roe v. Wade, and so much more will simply go away. The Democrats can try to deny a quorum by not showing up, or they can pledge to put more judges on the bench if McConnell. Those are their best options. And they carry significant political risk. Otherwise they have to hope that Romney, Collins, Murkowski, and some combination of retiring Senators and endangered Senators buckle on Moscow Mitch. They didn’t in 2018, and it was rewarded. Don’t hold your breath.
The 2020 campaign remains stable with 45 days to go. If you throw out Rasmussen, Biden hasn’t lead by less than 5% in a national poll counted by RCP this month. In their average of the polls, compared to 2016, Biden is doing 5.5% better than Clinton, with less days remaining. His 6.2% lead is basically in line with 538’s 6.6%. If you remove Rasmussen, just looking at yesterday, Biden’s lead is almost 8% on 538. Removing Rasmussen from RCP shows an 8% lead the last three days, nationally. Even assuming a 6% national win at 140 million votes, Biden wins by 8.4 million votes. Hillary won by 2.9 million. No, he won’t lose the electoral college unless this race dramatically narrows.
Democrats raised between $46 and $80 million after RBG’s death, depending on what your time frame was. That was all grassroots dollars. When you hear about the enthusiasm that supposedly exists for Trump, there is often a weird acceptance that he has the advantage here. The grassroots donations say that’s not so.
Random, but when a conservative tries to argue to you that Trump’s Middle East diplomacy, consisting of giving guns to unstable autocrats in exchange for embassies in Jerusalem, is better than Obama’s Iran deal on the grounds that Iran didn’t comply, and we gave them money, remind them no, and hell no.
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