As we approach the six weeks mark, what’s new? Well, today’s national polls on 538 gave Biden 5-12% leads across the board, and a 6.8% average lead for now (mostly skewed by a couple of Republican pollsters this week). Over at RCP, the lead is 6.5%, fueled by similar polls, and Biden is running 5% ahead of Clinton at this time in 2016. In short, nothing new.
An encouraging and important number NBC’s polling- about 3/4 of the electorate doesn’t care about the debates. I believe Biden will steamroll Trump like Hillary did in the debates, but what should a debate tell us that these last four years did not?
Another observation from recent polls- aside from Biden running at or very near 50%, Trump basically runs very close to his approval. What this means is that the remaining undecideds, who are far less numerous than in 2016, are likely not in the approving column of Trump. There’s a fairly good chance that their undecided status is less about Biden himself than the Democratic Party. Given the relative unity in the party, Joe should aggressively address than 5-10% of the electorate.
I feel like I have to remind people that weeks ago, Michael Cohen’s book told us that Trump hired a “FauxBama” to fire, as a personal ritual. This dude is a grade A weirdo. If you want to retire him, sign up to make calls into Pennsylvania this week. I promise it won’t hurt a bit.
We might have the worst ad of the cycle. For real.
Because, I have to. Yes, have to. For your entertainment, not mine.
We’ll be back tomorrow, six weeks out.