There are just 40 days to go. The race in the states is pretty interesting. The University of Wisconsin shows Biden with solid, but not overwhelming leads in PA, MI, and WI. Two Iowa polls give each man a three point lead, after the DMR poll showed a tie. A couple of polls show Ohio tilting back to the Democrats. SurveyMonkey shows Biden opening leads everywhere. Georgia is basically a tie. Fox News polls are good for Biden in NV and OH.

Nationally, it’s a steady race. Biden’s lead on 538 is 7.1%, and the polls generally put him up 5-10%. Biden’s lead on RCP is 6.5%, which is still 3.6% better than Hillary on this date in 2016. Hillary was back climbing around this point in 2016, but still not near Biden. Hillary ultimately won the popular vote by 2.1%, which was .8% off her polling lead. A Biden error of .8% would still mean an electoral victory.

Kimberly Guilfoyle, the RNC prime time speaking disaster, was in Palmer today. The press says she had 100 people. Pictures I received don’t seem to confirm that many people. At least they had the event outside. Given that I have nothing nice to say, I’ll just leave it there.

The race remains “as is.” Tuesday is the first debate, usually the biggest. Ballots are currently being cast. We’re not really 40 days from this election being decided.

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