When I started this process out, just over ten months ago, this is not the script I had in mind. Yet, here we essentially are, kind of where I expected things. Biden won the primaries by eventually building the coalition of white and black blue collar voters that Bernie Sanders could not defeat. Biden immediately was then staked out to a lead against Donald Trump because of generic Democratic strength with non-white voters AND strength with white voters, particularly old and educated ones, that hadn’t been seen since Jimmy Carter’s 1976 campaign. Throw on Covid and suddenly Biden’s lead has approached landslide levels. Even so, here we are essentially battling in Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the big six from last time, and Biden is clearly stronger in them than Clinton ended up being- as I figured. As I thought from the start, Biden would put Ohio and Iowa back in play, but I did not expect conditions this year to legitimately put Georgia and Texas in play. In short, Biden ended up being who I thought he was. 2020 was not what I expected though- and yet it looks like the ending I expected.
So the race- not much moving. 538 puts Biden up 8.8%. They give Biden a 90% chance of victory. That seems pretty good. RCP puts Biden up 7.9%. He’s over 50% in every poll they count, other than the two outliers (Rasmussen and The Hill), where he’s at 49%. He leads every battleground state as well, other than Arizona, despite the Rasmussen, Trafalgar, and Susquehanna state polls messing with the averages. Biden’s overall lead is 5.6% better than Hillary’s at this same point. His 51.4% polling average is also favorable to Hillary’s 45.5% closing number. There simply are less undecideds, Biden has more support, and Trump is in a bigger hole. The Economist gives Biden a 96% chance to win. This race simply doesn’t look like 2016.
Some quick reads for you all. How Biden’s Malarkey Factory Fights Back. These folks deserve saint hood. Latino Turnout Could Decide Pennsylvania. While this shouldn’t surprise you, it might. Allentown, Reading, Bethlehem, and Hazleton are just *some* of the places future campaigns should invest their time and resources into turning out in droves. Entirely not campaign related, but Japanese robot Gundam shows off it’s dance moves. This is so 2020.
Four years ago I kicked off “Get Out The Vote” weekend with a Chelsea Clinton rally in Elizabeth City, NC, followed by a mad dash to the county board of elections site in town to deal with the crowd standing in line to vote. If I’m being honest, I was both far less confident in that outcome and far happier with the experience of the campaign. I had an easier job, woke up looking at the bay side of the Outer Banks every morning, and didn’t realize just how bad our party had become at running national campaigns yet. About the only bad thing I can say about my 2016 experience four years later is the Presidential outcome. This time I have a laundry list of personal and professional grievances with the experience, but I’m beyond confident in the outcome I see coming. It looks like Bob Casey in Allentown tomorrow, Andrew Yang in Bethlehem on Sunday, and a special guest in the Lehigh Valley on Monday. Let’s see where things end up…