Polls and polls, and polls… We have our first local Lehigh Valley polling, showing Joe Biden up 51-44%. It also shows Congresswoman Susan Wild up 52-39%. If that’s where PA-7 is at this point, that’s ballgame in PA.
To be honest, the national polls show a race that matches that. After polls from YouGov, Reuters, and Rasmussen showed the margin for Biden at 8% or more, the RCP average is now 6.6%. Comparing this to Hillary’s lead at the same point, that’s 3.4% better. If you prefer 538’s numbers, they have Biden up 7.6%. Hillary won by 2.1% in the popular vote. Had she won by 2.6%, she probably pulls back PA, MI, and WI, and the election. At 3.1%, she probably pulls in Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina. Giving even a 4% margin of error on Biden’s leads (as opposed to .8% in 2016), Biden would get the 2.6% needed to win. In reality he probably gets that and more. I’m not sure if this is 2008 or 2012, but it’s not 2016.
On top of all this, the Senate is slowly slipping away from the GOP as well. Democrats have solid leads in Arizona and Colorado, persistent leads in Maine and North Carolina, and are in jump ball races in Iowa, South Carolina, Montana, and Georgia. Recent polls have shown steep climbs in Iowa and Georgia for Democrats recently. Things are looking very upward for Democrats.
More a bit later…