My current projection.

Rather than talking national polling in this post, we’ll focus on some state polling. Specifically the NYTimes/Siena polls showing Biden leading 49-42% in Pennsylvania and 47-42% in Florida. These polls are basically in line with other recent polling in both states. If you look over the recent Pennsylvania polling on RCP, Biden is averaging over 50% and leading by 6.4%, which is very close now to their national average. Biden is consistently hitting 49% across all the polls. In Florida, RCP has Biden leading by 2% at 47.8%-45.8%. He leads in all but one poll they used, though only once hitting 50%. In both states, the number of undecided is roughly 1 in 10, or less. Biden would probably carry Pennsylvania as is, but probably needs a slight bump to lock up Florida. In any case, Trump has huge problems in both. If he loses both? It’s over.

Meanwhile, the President remains hospitalized at Walter Reed. The campaign remains stopped in place. While I might give the edge to the North Carolina Senate race for weirdest race in the country this weekend, we’ve never seen a Presidential race like this. While people try to game out what will happen under each scenario, the truth is that we don’t totally know. This situation probably won’t move the decideds, but what will it do to undecided voters? It’s hard to game that out, but there’s a pretty good chance it won’t change the result.

So much is being made of the Biden campaign pulling down their negative ads. I know this isn’t what some people want to hear, but the decision makes sense. This is on brand for Biden. It also is highly unlikely Biden would gain using these ads during Trump’s hospitalization. Sure, Trump is continuing to attack- with the same garbage that hasn’t worked so far. Their campaign is a clueless operation. That’s why the polls are where they are.

Back this afternoon…

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