Imagine that…

We are now down to 30 days to go. There’s a strong consensus that Joe Biden is winning, and by a rough average of 8%. His lead is bigger than Hillary’s at this same point, by roughly 4%. Hillary won the popular vote by 2.1%. If she had won by 3%, she would have actually won. Joe Biden is in strong position to win.

If the election were today, I have Biden winning the electoral college 375-163. I have him winning the popular vote 52-45%. I have Biden sweeping the “big six”- PA, MI, and WI right now by 5% or more, and AZ, NC, and FL considerably closer. I have him pulling in OH, GA, and IA right now as well, albeit very close. The race *should* narrow down the stretch, and some states could move back towards Trump, but it could widen and put TX and SC in Biden’s column. For now though, I don’t have it very close.

Then there’s the matter of the Senate. Democrats look poised to flip AZ, CO, and ME. They look likely to lose AL. That puts the Democrats at 49 seats. They would need one seat and the Vice-Presidency or two seats to claim the Senate. The most likely tipping point seats appear to be NC and IA, both of which have been narrow Democratic leads lately. Then you get into a group of very close seats that would determine the durability of a Democratic majority. There’s a tough defense in Michigan that Democrats need to pay attention to. Democrats would look stupid if they blew the Senate on this defense. Then there’s a group of Democratic opportunities that range from extremely possible to a bit of a reach. Democrats have a chance (in plausibility order) of winning MT, both GA seats, SC, TX, MS, KS, AK, and KY. If I were a gambling man today, I’d say the Democrats win a net of six seats, for a 53-47 majority.

It would be too much to go through the individual House races and try to predict them all, but we can make some macro projections. First off, there aren’t enough Democrats really “in danger” to flip the House. There are probably at least as many Republicans in real danger, if not more. On the other hand, the Dems generic ballot lead is all over, and probably isn’t 2018 level strong. I’d expect Democrats to fall somewhere between even money and a dozen seats to the positive.

Lots more over the next 29 days. Buckle up…

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