Four years ago right now, Hillary Clinton had a 5.7% lead. Today Joe Biden is up 4.1% more. It felt like she was pulling away in the polls at this point last time, Biden actually is. Biden’s 9.8% lead is the largest at this point since 1996. The ABC/Washington Post poll puts Biden up 12% this weekend. 538 has the lead up to 10.3%. This race is lopsided.
Yesterday I was out observing early vote sites around Northampton County. I’m happy to report people are showing up.
So more on the Hillary comparison. The main differences I see with 2016 are pretty straight forward: her negatives were much higher, there were way more undecideds, even when she held big leads she wasn’t at or near 50%, she was the first woman nominee, Comey, Russia, and no major crisis. Almost none of that applies to Biden. For all of those reasons, I believe it’s safe to accept these polls. Also, the pollsters adjusting the polls to account for education levels is helping Trump, and it’s still worse.
So I’m feeling good. More later…