21.

Without toss-ups…
With toss-ups…

In 2016, Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton by narrowly pulling out Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. His margin in those three states was roughly 75K votes. Add on Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona, and his margin was roughly 450K votes. Flip those states? It’s a Democratic landslide. Throw in Ohio, Iowa, and Maine-2, which all flipped from Obama to Trump? You have a battleground.

Right now, I’m calling Joe Biden to flip all of these states but Iowa. I’m predicting victory in Nebraska-2 as well. At this time I’m not calling flips in Iowa, Georgia, or Texas, but all are possible. Had Hillary won the popular vote by 3% (her polling average lead was 2.9% that morning), she flips PA, MI, and WI. With only a small bump past that, she wins FL, NC, and AZ. If Joe Biden holds a 10% lead on election night, every state I’ve named here goes blue. A 10% win is an easy 400+ electoral vote win. I don’t presume a 10% final victory. I do presume a healthy win though.

I’m not sure I’m as confident in the Senate though. The Democrats have plenty of opportunities, but a lack of sure things. They have solid leads in Arizona and Colorado, but also look like they’ll lose Alabama. Maine, North Carolina, Iowa, and Montana all look super close, as Democrats often lead, but haven’t closed the deal. In Michigan, their incumbent seems to be treading water. Yet at the same time, South Carolina, Kansas, Alaska, Texas, and both seats in Georgia seem competitive. And of course Kentucky is still out there. A 56-44 Democratic Senate isn’t crazy. Neither is a 51-49 Republican one. I still think the Democrats win, but I wouldn’t bet anything valuable.

The House? It doesn’t seem to be in play. If races like SC-1 aren’t really in play, is the House? If races like PA-6 and 7 aren’t in play, how do the Republicans defend themselves in tough defenses? I’d bet on Democrats winning a dozen new house seats.

There are some interesting Governor races in Montana and Missouri, and seemingly a solid Democratic win in North Carolina. The Democratic Party looks to be headed to crushing defeat in West Virginia, Indiana, New Hampshire, and Utah though. Don’t expect too much change here.

Three weeks. Three more weeks…

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