Nice mail…

Two posts for three weeks out. Let’s start with the state of the race. 538 says Biden leads by 10.5%. That’s not close. The Economist’s model gives Biden 343 electoral votes and a 91% chance of victory. That’s also not so close. RCP did give Trump a slight bump in their average, putting him only down 10%. Biden’s lead is around 10% and sat over 50% in almost every poll. His current lead is 2.9% bigger than Hillary’s, which is slightly closer than it’s been in recent days- because she was in a bit of a surge at this point in 2016.

The biggest discussion of this race at this point is pretty simple- what could change? The most obvious thing that pops into mind is the 2016 “Comey Letter.” Tonight I asked a friend exactly when that happened, as I believed it was about 13 days out. The Comey letter was released October 28th, 2016, a full 11 days out from the Election. The equivalent in this election would be October 23rd, a Thursday. There’s big problems with this working again. For one thing, Joe Biden has higher favorability than Hillary did at this point. Also he doesn’t have an investigation that hung over him for months before that moment. Also, there aren’t all the other factors- a party seeking a third term, a historic candidate facing sexism, Russia (at least we hope not as bad), or facing a somewhat unknown opponent. Even so, that’s the kind of change it would take to turn this race. It just would be much harder to pull off.

Obviously, elections aren’t over until they actually are over. Millions of votes have been cast though. With three weeks to go, the time is up, and the time is now. Please vote. Just vote.

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