It was a big day for Donald Trump. First, the Economist model didn’t change. So it didn’t get worse. Then the RCP average fell to 8.9%. That’s still bad, but it’s best case! It’s still 3.3% worse than 2016 at the same point though, which is bad for him. Meanwhile 538 has him 10.6% down. The race remains a blowout, regardless of how hard Steve Bannon tries to impress Trump for a pardon.
The money race is really close in Northampton County. At least among donors writing checks of $200 or more. My bet is if we could see $50 or less donors, it’s not close. While there are the hardliners, Trump isn’t gaining here.
Today is a mostly virtual day for me. I’ll have a lot more tonight. Most of the coverage of this race is silly season now. One thing to note? 40k ballots are in for Northampton and Lehigh Counties. Democrats have cast 69.5%. That’s back breaking.