Well, we’re two weeks out. Above is my current projection of the race. The simple truth of the matter is with his current lead, Biden would win, and win pretty healthy. He’d probably carry PA/MI/WI each by over 5%. He probably carries NC/FL/AZ each by over 3%. He would very narrowly pull out OH/IA/GA right now. Last but not least, he holds MN/NH/VA/CO by close to double digits, and NV comfortably. I don’t think right now he carries TX, but that could make this a historic blowout.
In the Senate, I think things are more competitive, but still leaning Democratic. Democrats seem in strong position to pull off AZ and CO pick ups, but likely to lose AL. At this point Dems remain favorites in MI and MN to hold, and slight favorites in ME, NC, and IA to flip the Senate. Then you have a real toss-up in MT, and very slight GOP favorites in KS, AK, both GA seats, SC, and TX. Even MS and LA are now on the board for the Dems too. With Dems holding financial edges almost everywhere, right now I predict a 53-47 Democratic Senate.
The House isn’t even in play. With some of the supposedly competitive seats producing lopsided polls in favor of the Democrats, it’s hard to see where they pick up seats. I’m predicting Democrats pick up 12 seats, going to 244-191.
The one ray of hope for the GOP are the Governor’s races. Taking back NC may look like a pipe dream, but MT is leaning their way. Defenses in WV, IN, UT, and NH all appear safer than earlier in the year. Their one semi-competitive protection, MO, is leaning their way.
That’s all for now…