13.

Barack Obama was in Philadelphia today. That is generally a good thing for Democrats. Joe Biden continues to lead by 5-9% in poll after poll of the Keystone state, which when you consider the extent to which pollsters are trying to find the “missing” Trump voters from 2016, generally means things are good. Public polling has consistently shown Biden winning the all important swing 1st, 7th, and 10th Congressional districts. Early voting numbers show a ridiculous Democratic leaning in ballots requested and returned. By every measure, Joe Biden is poised to carry Pennsylvania. If he carries Pennsylvania, he’s almost certainly President.

So, what can go wrong, right? Do you fear under performing in Philadelphia and it’s suburbs, or Pittsburgh and Allegheny County? Or do you fear a repeat failure in the Lehigh Valley or NEPA? Or maybe it’s just Western PA? Honestly, none of the above seems likely to be any worse than 2016 to me. So what am I watching at this point?

  • Getting ballots in.
  • Counting issues.
  • Foreign Interference in counting.

Obviously things will narrow a bit in the closing days. We all know that. They almost have to. At this point I see a race that ends between Biden by 5% (51-46%) and Biden by 9% (54-45%) when the dust settles. I believe either way he wins the electoral college, but one is very easy, the other might be a little longer wait.

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