11.

And soon, like a miracle, it will be over.

Well, we’re almost there. Over 50 million votes have been cast. How’s it look? 538 says it’s a 9.7% race in favor of Biden. Their forecast gives Biden an 87% chance of victory. Meanwhile, the Economist gives Biden a 91% chance of winning, and 346 electoral votes. The RCP average has it Biden 51.3%-42.4%, an 8.9% lead for Biden. That’s 4.1% larger than Clinton’s lead four years ago. These are actually pretty steady numbers, although 538 and the Economist are showing slight movement towards Trump. Ultimately though, the race is heading steadily towards a Biden win.

The eleven day out mark is significant for two reasons. One, Anthony Scaramucci spent 11 days as the incoming White House Communications Director, so we are one Scaramucci away from the election. Two, it was 11 days out in 2016 when James Cody dropped his infamous letter on Hillary Clinton. It is worth noting that Clinton’s RCP average lead on that date was only 3.9%, as she battled Russia, misogyny, trying to win a third term for her party, and Trumpism. Did Comey decide the race? No. Did he probably tip the race away from her? Probably. She was already stuck below 50%, with lower approval, and big obstacles in her way. Being called a crook didn’t help.

We now head into the second to last weekend of the election. The Bidens, Bernie, and Bon Jovi are all in PA. Cher is on the road. Millions of people are voting. We’ll have more later today…

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