Predictions, predictions. As we enter the final week of the election, things are becoming clear now. Joe Biden will easily win the popular vote. The Democrats will hold the House. We know the tipping point states for President and control of the Senate. We know the House battlegrounds. So what’s my call?
President- Joe Biden. I’m not predicting a win, I’m predicting a blowout. 375-163. If you look at elections post-2000, the battlegrounds tip towards the winner as a group. Hence, Biden will win PA-MI-WI fairly easy, NC-FL-AZ by modest margins, and OH-GA-IA in squeakers. He has the enthusiasm, the middle, and surge voters. It will show. Perhaps the significant part of my prediction is this- the legal nightmares Democrats have will be small at best.
Senate- Democratic. This is going to be the close part of the night. The GOP will take Alabama, meaning Democrats will need four seats to flip the chamber. AZ and CO are coming. NC seems like it is, but it’s not quite a lock yet. ME looks great, but ranked choice voting might save Collins. IA is feeling as good as those two, to me. Then you get into some interesting races. Both Georgia seats suddenly look very winnable. Texas and Kansas remain on the board very late. South Carolina is a jump ball. Montana remains very much in play thanks to having the better candidate. Mississippi is the sleeper of sleepers. And somehow, Louisiana and Kentucky occasionally look good. Meanwhile the GOP has MI and MN to play for, and that’s it. I’m predicting the Democrats pick up five seats.
House- Democratic gains. This is a bit of a surprise, but Democrats are about to make gains all over the map. Predict a dozen pick-ups. This is where the tsunami is at.
More to come later…