Into the single digits we go… and the race is mostly unchanged. RCP puts the race at 7.8% for Biden, mostly because they count Rasmussen’s ridiculous “Trump +1%” poll (perfectly timed for the GOP). Compared to 2016 at this same point, Biden is 4.9% better than Hillary at the same time. According to RCP, Biden is up 9% in Michigan, 5.5% in Wisconsin, 4.8% in Pennsylvania, 2.4% in Arizona, 1.8% in Florida, and 1.2% in North Carolina. This is closer than the national race, but not really very close for this point. Meanwhile 538 remains at Biden with an 87% chance of victory. That’s pretty good, but his 9.4% lead in their polls is even stronger than RCP’s. They also counted the Rasmussen garbage in there, but also had several polls showing the race at double digits. Finally the Economist model has Biden at a 95% chance of victory, and 346 electoral votes. Basically nobody gives Trump as good of a shot to win as he had in 2016 at this point.
Nevertheless, Donald Trump was here today. I guess he has to try (and spread Covid everywhere). He made stops in Hanover Township, Lititz, and Altoona today. The Lititz and Altoona stops can only be read as trying to strengthen his base, which is not good this late. This would seem to suggest Hanover was also about fortifying his base, which isn’t good for him. Meanwhile both Northampton and Lehigh County courthouses we’re full of voters- Democratic voters. Democrats continue to run a roughly 50k ballots returned advantage in PA-7 as they cross the 100k ballots cast mark. I maintain my belief about the state of this race.
I suspect Joe Biden’s internal polling is better than the public polling. Why? Upcoming stops in Georgia, Texas, and Iowa, all suggesting they believe they can play offense in the closing days. I do think we’ll see some more Pennsylvania stops though. Basically, if Joe wins PA, you can write off this race. Everything suggests he will, but you don’t gamble on it. Nobody wants to be second guessed like the Clinton folks for their schedule in the final two months.