7.

Welp…

Well we have one week to go. Joe Biden leads. 538 says the lead is 9.2%. They give him an 88% chance of victory. Meanwhile, The Economist says Biden’s odds of victory are 96%. RCP is bullish on Trump, putting him only down 7.1%. In the battlegrounds they say it’s only 3.5%. It’s worth noting they’re factoring in a lot of right-leaning pollsters like IBD, Emerson, and Rasmussen to get these numbers. Even so, they have his numbers at 4.9% better than Hillary’s at this point four years ago. Biden’s lead is substantial.

Lines stretched outside the courthouse all day.

One week out marked the end of early in-person voting in Pennsylvania. The system is new, and far from perfect, but overall it worked well. I went to the Northampton County Courthouse to hand out Biden goodies and answer voters questions, but ended up mostly helping county workers get voters to fill out the necessary paperwork to get their ballot and vote. I’m happy to report that every voter in line that finished their application by 5pm received a ballot, and only a hand full in a long line failed to finish and hand in their application by 5pm. The line stretched outside the building virtually all day, from the lower level inside (the elections office), to the rotunda security, then out of the building to the street. The scene in Easton was mirrored by even bigger lines in Allentown (Lehigh County). Going into the day, more than 94,000 ballots had been returned in the 7th Congressional district. Democrats has a 2:1 advantage in ballots returned going into the final day of in-person early voting.

Every morning

Doug Emhoff will visit Allentown tomorrow to kick off a canvass from IBEW Local 375. Doug is of course the husband of Kamala Harris. Doug becomes the first of the four main principles on the Democratic ticket to visit the Lehigh Valley in 2020. One may recall that Tim Kaine visited the region twice in 2016, but Hillary did not. For contrast, John Kerry visited twice, his wife once, and both Barack and Michelle Obama stopped by in their campaigns. I’m going to put a pin in this and leave it here for now, it is what it is. There is no bigger swing area of a swing state, but predictive analytics hate close areas. We’ll re-visit later. I’m glad Doug is coming in and giving our folks something to cheer. Predictive analytics make Democratic campaigns suck, as they make them overly efficient and not nearly energetic enough, or energizing.

I’m going to save the bulk of my comments about how bad the Democratic model of organizing is for a later (soon) date, and just share an anecdote. Four years ago, Hillary had very few yard signs, because they “don’t work,” and made you either buy one or volunteer enough times for one. Biden went the opposite way, flooding our area with signs, but still making you sign up and give over your data to get a sign. The result? No less than 2,000 Biden-Harris signs sitting around in PA-7, waiting to go somewhere. It’s not a lack of demand. I sent an email just in my township to active volunteers, and I received an immediate 25 requests, without even calling these folks. We could have moved these in days with effort. Democratic campaigns are addicted to posting big numbers though, even if it means you fail to meet your objectives. Analytics over everything. No wonder we lose often.

‘Til tomorrow…

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