Six days to go. RCP says the race is Biden +7.5%. They put Biden up in all the battlegrounds but Florida, which they call a tie. RCP has Biden’s lead at 5.6% larger than Hillary on this date in 2016. Meanwhile 538 puts Biden’s ads at 88%. They put his lead at 9%. Meanwhile the Economist puts Biden’s odds at 96%. The race remains not close.
Doug Emhoff visited Allentown today. It’s the first visit from a Biden or Harris family member to the Lehigh Valley. He drew a nice crowd of a few hundred to the IBEW hall downtown. There were some lunatics outside the gate making noise, but they just made fools of themselves. It was a good day.
A scenario I hadn’t considered was Georgia and Texas being as close as Florida at this point. Biden’s pathway right now is pretty interesting. Biden holds fairly comfortable leads across the board in Hillary’s 2016 states, with Michigan and Wisconsin looking good to join them. That’s 258 electoral votes. Trump would like to pull back Nevada, Minnesota, and New Hampshire, which combine for 20 electors, but that looks unlikely, as do the 26 electors from Michigan and Wisconsin. Other than Trump somehow sweeping them all in, Biden would win with just Texas. From his current 258, Biden not only would win by Pennsylvania or Florida, but also Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, or Iowa and Arizona combined with any other swing state.
I’d rather have more paths than less…