It’s the final hours now. The Hill reports that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will spread out across the Commonwealth Monday, as will Trump. The latest DeSales/WFMZ Poll shows Joe Biden and Congresswoman Wild both leading in PA-7 by 19%. Meanwhile the Lehigh Valley Live/Franklin & Marshall Poll puts the PA-7 lead at 7%. Both would be significant movement from 2016. Even so, I have people sending me articles about the mythical “shy Trump voter.” They don’t exist. They didn’t exist in 2016. Polls were off by 1% in 2016. That’s what margin of error is. This is not a margin of error race.
So the state of the race? 538 says Biden by 8.8%. They give Biden an 89% chance of victory. The Economist gives Biden a 95% chance of victory. RCP says Biden is up 7.6%. Their top battlegrounds polling is closer, but still puts Biden’s leads at larger numbers than 2016. Biden’s RCP lead is 5.3% larger than Hillary’s at this hour in 2016. In short, there’s not a lot of drama.
Last night at 3am, Trump took to Twitter for his latest tweetstorm. He’s such a tiny, scared man right now. He knows he’s about to get humiliated. He can’t take it. That makes me smile.