In another universe it was a sleepy, damp Sunday morning. In Bethlehem, in our universe, Andrew Yang was on his soap box to tell us that even math was telling us to elect the Biden-Harris ticket, and Tara Zrinski for the State House. Welcome to the Lehigh Valley two days before a Presidential election. I say this with confidence- whoever wins here, they’re probably President. Public polling says Lehigh County will drive a Biden victory, but in 2016 Trump flipped Northampton County from Obama to himself. Nobody has forgotten in four years.
By definition, campaigns are a mess. Democratic Presidential campaigns are the worst of them all. So properly named “coordinated” campaigns, they are by definition not so. As I write this section, it is 7am on Election Day and the “first canvass shift” is about to start. Is there a point to this shift? Of course not. Did people get paid to plan this? Yup. Yet many basic, important campaign functions got left to God. What a mess.
Ok, the final averages as the polls open. 538 ends with Biden +8.4%. They also give Biden an 89% chance to win. RCP puts Biden up 6.7% in their final average, and gives him a lead in every swing state but North Carolina. His lead is 3.4% larger than Hillary’s was today. The Economist gives Biden a 97% chance of victory.
Now let’s see what happens… more later.