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It took me nearly a week to finally be emotionally and intellectually able to write this piece, but write it I will. Joe Biden is our President-Elect. Donald Trump has been defeated. Kamala Harris has made history. People danced in the street, they cried tears of joy, they prayed, they rejoiced. For me, Saturday was one of the most moving days I have ever had. The sting of Hillary Clinton’s loss obviously hit me personally, I worked for both of Hillary’s Presidential campaigns, but it hit me even more personally than that. Rarely in the Trump era did I feel targeted by his vitriol, because I’m a white, straight, Catholic, suburban raised man, and he wasn’t trying to scapegoat me. I watched his policies and his rhetoric aimed directly at the heart of family, friends, and acquaintances alike, and felt helpless. It made me angry. The feelings I had this past weekend were so much different, so much better. I watched millions of people genuinely rejoice, dance in the string, and dance. For the first time in my political career, none of the bureaucratic BS of the campaign mattered at all to me. I was just proud of what I had been a part of. Nothing mattered to me but how this made people feel. It’s a new day.

Now, some notes…

The man of the hour.

An ode to Joe Biden.

We don’t give Joe Biden enough credit for what a master politician he is. Just the black and white ink of his resume should have been proof enough- Senate Judiciary Chair, Senate Foreign Relations Chair, seven times elected Senator, two-term Vice-President of the United States, and yes, now the President-Elect. We tend to view Joe Biden through his losses, and lose site of what he’s achieved, be it personal or political. This man is one of the great American statesmen and politicians of post-World War II America. Don’t mistake him for a saint, but don’t dismiss him as Barack Obama’s “crazy uncle #2” either.

Joe Biden was in my top tier in this race from day one (along with Harris, Booker, and Klobuchar), so obviously I’m thrilled with this outcome. Obviously being a part of his team, this is personally fulfilling as well. A lot of people ask me why I felt he was right though, and I’ll give you this anecdote- on Super Tuesday in headquarters, I declared very early in the day that Biden would win Massachusetts, and I was basically laughed at (one super senior staff member simply replied “that won’t happen.”). A buddy on the campaign asked me if I was serious, to which I replied kinda yes, and he asked me why. I asked him what other candidate could possibly win Rep. Pressley (The Squad) and Rep. Lynch’s (Irish Catholic moderate) Boston districts. My point played out pretty well. Biden could build the broadest coalition in the race, because he could speak to and empathize with the most people. He’s got Bill Clinton abilities, combined with the experience of the Obama White House, and the wisdom of years. All of that played huge against Trump.

So much to see here…

The Broken Democratic Brand…

After 2016, one of the criticisms of the Democratic Party was that “the brand” was broken. The party had lost power in all three branches of the federal government at that time, and our 2016 nominee had ended the race deeply unpopular. The argument was basically that Barack Obama had won twice largely on personal popularity. The party itself didn’t poll very well, and seemed to hemorrhage voters they used to get.

Joe Biden won Tuesday’s election, the Democratic Party did not. Let’s be honest beyond Biden about what kind of candidates were winning. Mark Kelly and John Hickenlooper were remarkably strong Senate candidates. Roy Cooper and Josh Stein in North Carolina are very powerful Governor and Attorney General candidates. Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro was the only Democratic row office candidate to win. House superstars like Lauren Underwood and Conor Lamb survived. Many of their freshman colleagues met a much harsher fate. Even at the Presidential level, Joe Biden joined Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama as the only Democrats of the post-LBJ/late 1960’s cultural revolution to win a national election. All were very gifted politicians and came to power on the back of a national crisis. We never win on generic ideology.

How bad are things though? In Pennsylvania, Democrats lost the popular vote for the US House by nearly 130k votes, at last glance. Democrats lost the entire New Hampshire state government, including both houses. Pennsylvania’s House and Senate Democrats sit at the exact same numbers they were at after the 2010 midterms. North Carolina’s legislature, just two years after Democrats broke the supermajorities, lost Democratic seats. Pennsylvania Republicans won their first row office victories in over a decade. New York State legislative Democrats lost seats. Minnesota and New Mexico Democrats lost Congressional races in good Presidential years.

I would not say 2020 was a terrible year for Democrats, but it was a correction of 2018’s majority. Like in 2016, late breaking voters seemed to decide giving us strong majorities was not in their interests. The reality is that Republicans have proven very capable of convincing voters to deny Democrats power, even in elections where they are rejecting the GOP. In 2018, Democrats were winning down ballot races in GOP strongholds. In 2020, Democrats lost some of those same seats back, limiting their ability to govern moving forward.

How it happened…

The Blame Game

Let’s dive into this week’s best political battle- the Conor Lamb’s of the world vs. the AOC’s of the world. I’ll start by stating the somewhat obvious- my politics aren’t a match with “the Squad,” and more so are with Lamb. With that said, I think that both sides have brought forward some interesting thoughts, both about Biden’s wins and the down ballot losses Democrats have suffered this cycle. For me, there’s lots of blame and credit to go around.

First off, I’ll state three obvious truths about Biden’s victory. First, there is no doubt that people of color, and more specifically their organizers, played a gigantic role in flipping Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, and holding Nevada. Second, there is no doubt that Biden’s being more acceptable to suburban moderates in those same states got him those last few percentages of the vote that he critically needed. Third, and I can’t believe I’m writing this, but the unity encouraged by Bernie, Elizabeth Warren, and “The Squad” played a critical part in avoiding the lack of enthusiasm we fought in 2016. If you remove any piece of this puzzle, Joe Biden probably becomes the third Democratic nominee this century to win the popular vote but lose the crucial states needed to win. With all this in mind, I have to say that I’m not denying anybody the credit they are being given for this victory. When someone says Stacey Abrams deserves credit for flipping Georgia, all I’m doing is nodding in agreement, because you ain’t wrong.

… but let’s talk about the losing we did too. This is a tough love portion that goes in two parts, with the first being the impact of further-left messaging on the difficult races, particularly swing states and districts. The use of the term “socialism,” which is somewhat misleading anyway by “new left” Democrats, is a non-starter with many immigrant populations (especially Latinos) and suburban voters (swing districts). It played a huge role in losing Florida and Texas, and more specifically swing Congressional districts. Pointing out that candidates who supported Medicare-for-All and the Green New Deal all won, while not pointing out that they represent safe blue districts, is dishonest at best. Talking about defunding the police, abolishing private health care, ending commercial flights, and phasing meat out of our diets, while quite popular in our liberal enclaves, is a straight ticket to defeat in the kinds of districts that you have to win to get a majority. For their popularity in blue districts, “the Squad” is a perfect boogeyman for Republicans to put front and center in their efforts to call moderate Democrats extremists. You can’t build a majority under the American government system for further-left politics. Fortunately, I don’t think the “socialist” messaging stuck to Biden in most places, particularly after he won a primary against that. It absolutely worked is scaring late-breaking voters in Florida, Maine, North Carolina, Texas, and Congressional districts in Nebraska, Oklahoma, Ohio, and even New York. It’s not about forcing everyone to be moderate, it’s about forcing them to be disciplined. If your policy isn’t to actually *defund* the police, don’t use words with that meaning to gin up voters who are already with us. If you’re not actually going to *seize the means of production,* don’t call yourself a socialist. Since anything you say will be used against you anyway, only give them words you mean to give them. I will give a rare rebuke to our leadership though on the Hill for this- if you don’t want AOC to be the face of the party in Iowa and Florida, start pushing some other voices out front and on TV more. If you don’t, don’t get mad later.

Let’s not limit the blame to just the progressives though. Not all of AOC’s critique of the party is wrong. The Democratic Party is not interested in party building at a precinct level, across the nation. Most state legislative caucuses are fully owned by their expensive television consultants, and their money flows there. AOC’s point about investing heavier into the online presence, which those of us in the industry call digital organizing, was proven right this cycle by those of us on the Biden campaign, who both organized Super Tuesday almost fully online, then spent literally months organizing digitally during the pandemic. Elections are literally won where the people are, not Washington, and that is online in communities, and at the most localized level, which is the precinct. Want some truth? Hillary lost Pennsylvania by 5 votes per precinct in 2016. Our organizing model does not view campaigns through that sort of lense (more later on this.).

So much fun…

The Waste of the Grassroots Donor

I don’t have to remind you that well-funded Democrats lost Senate races in Kentucky and South Carolina. I don’t have to remind you of the hundreds of millions of dollars wasted on these races, which you may have contributed to. I doubt I need to dive too far into the relative disappointment for Democrats, particularly on the House and Senate level, with how we performed relative to how well funded we were.

This is not something that would have even been a thought before Howard Dean’s 2004 Presidential campaign, and it wasn’t even conceivable until after 2008. The old big donors would ask the party leadership essentially where to donate. With the shift away from PACs and institutional donors, there’s no way to focus donations into the most flippable seats. Let’s be honest about some of the well funded Senate seats we lost- Kentucky, Montana, South Carolina, Kansas, and even Texas- were not supposed to be competitive for President. The money still flowed there. Small dollar donors as our primary life blood in donations means a lot of money will go to waste. They will donate with their hearts, not their heads, and that’s their right to. That doesn’t help though.

Back in the primaries, I ripped the DNC for using the number of donors as a criteria to make the stage. I said it forced candidates to chase the whims of Democratic activists, not the average, median voter back home. I maintain that criticism after this general election.

Turns out this stuff works.

The Failed Democratic Organizing Model.

I’m just going to cut straight to the chase here- The Democratic Organizing Model being used nationally basically exists to make it’s managers look good. That’s it. It’s there to produce large scale numbers that look good to your potential next employer. It’s not there to do much else.

I told you earlier that Hillary lost PA by 5 votes per precinct, which she did. Did we react to that by partnering with down ballot candidates to increase our vote share, precinct by precinct? No. We instead focused on macro change, with the focus on statewide autodialers and big shifting numbers. This is not a Pennsylvania specific problem, and even in a victory it showed up in our losses down ballot. Democrats will lose roughly a dozen Congressional races nationwide, and lost close state legislative races in swing states like North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Texas. This is specifically why we can’t govern and have nice things.

The average organizer was managing 25 to 40 precincts total. The organizing model in an area that size should emphasize quality, not quantity and efficiency. We should be building a precinct captain structure, and running each district as it’s own mini race. Recruitment call goals should take a back seat to one on one’s and meeting with clubs, party committees, and active citizens. We should be less reliant on predictive analytics to tell us who to talk to, because we should have volunteers engaging their neighbors. We should organize, not phone bank. Our turfs are small enough to do so.

Don’t limit this to just organizing. Our constituency outreach is one-size fits all, and often times turns off more people than it should. Our political outreach often times has no idea who the local electeds are. Our press teams spend way too much time on statewide and national press. In short, I think Democratic campaigns are too big and bloated in their structure, and broken in their execution. We got through that this time, because people worked hard and our candidate was made for this race. That won’t happen automatically again.

El oh el…

What I Got Wrong

In the beginning of this race, I said we needed to nominate Biden or someone like him, who could beat Trump in the close states- because I said then that Trump would get every vote of his 46% from 2016, if not more. I was right then, more so than I was right at the end. To this point, Trump has received nine million more votes than he did last time, and sits around 47.5%, a 1.5% upward shift. While his campaign and White House seemed inept, and he was polling around 41-42%, the fact is that this race played out very similarly- most of the undecided voters were actually for Trump. Trumpism was about more than a campaign or policies, but was inherently cultural. He proved much of the Democratic professional class wrong- you don’t need to quantify everything and be precise in every calculation to succeed politically. You can do it through blunt force and speaking directly to an audience motivated by things without a policy objective. Political incorrectness is what motivates their base, and we learned in this election that trying to match that turns off some of the folks we need to build a majority.

As I suspected, the demographic divides in our politics began to crumble. Biden made gains among white voters, seniors, suburbanites, and independents. Trump made gains among black men and certain Latino groups. Demographics were not destiny. I over-estimated the impact that would have in a few swing-states though- namely Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina. The truth is that the era of monolithic demographic movements is coming to an end. With that end, our politics will almost certainly re-align some more. This is probably good for Democrats, if they embrace it, as the GOP did not pay a price for their embrace of Donald Trump really.

There is another silver lining- I do not see another Donald Trump. He is their turnout machine, and he will not be on the ballot in 2022. while others will try to embrace Trumpism, I sincerely doubt their ability to do it. While he is morally troubling and intellectually lazy, Donald Trump is the greatest marketing mind on the planet and he managed to sell himself- an inexperienced, personally flawed, policy lightweight- as the symbol of political masculinity, the anecdote to political correctness, and the pushback to Obamaism is America. He knew there was no market for Paul Ryan’s Ayn Rand crap, Cheney’s neocon wars, or even the moral smugness of much of the old school “Christian Conservatism” crowd. You may think a Tom Cotton, a Mike Pence, or Don Jr. can easily pick up his cause now, but you’ll likely find that is wrong. Much like Bill Clinton’s successors (Gore and Hillary) could not ride his popularity to the White House, and Barack Obama’s personal popularity didn’t push Hillary over in 2016, you’re likely to find its hard to find another Trump.

That’s all for now. I’ll gather this whole series up in one, later on.

If I Were President Tomorrow…

If I woke up tomorrow in the White House, what would I do? Amidst all of the “big ideas” floating around the 2020 Presidential race, I have to be honest, I’m hearing a lot of hot air. They’re good ideas, but they’re not going to pass. It’s nice to discuss a world with more Supreme Court Judges, no electoral college, and a majority rule Senate, but all of those either aren’t happening or would be dangerous if they did. But what could happen? These are my “big” ideas.

  1. Overtime pay for all. With the stroke of his pen, President Obama tried to extend overtime pay to millions of Americans, but it has been rolled back since. If I were President, I would extend overtime pay to any American working over 40 hours a week. I’d try to get Congress to pass a law for it, rather than just do it through an executive order. If there’s more than 40 hours of work in a week, either pay up or hire more people. We need to restore the work-life balance, or at least get paid better for being squeezed dry of all productivity.
  2. Legalized marijuana. See how well Colorado and other states are doing? People want to smoke marijuana. Marijuana is better for them than most medicines or recreational substances they use instead. Locking people up for pot is basically a nuisance to most prosecutors and makes no sense. This industry is ready to take off, and have positive impacts on society. It can’t do that when the marijuana industry can’t use our banking system because marijuana is still considered a “schedule one” drug by the federal government.
  3. A payroll tax indexed to cover 90% of all wages, as it was intended. When Ronald Reagan signed tax reform in the 1980’s, the payroll tax covered 90% of all wages, and was easily able to fund Social Security. We could make that permanently so, and keep Congress from borrowing money from those programs with a simple act of Congress. Medicare and Social Security would be safely paid for, for the foreseeable future. It’s not a big ask to do this.
  4. No taxes paid below the poverty line. Americans hate taxes. Many people truly can’t afford any more. It’s time to shift the burden off of the middle class. No American should start paying income taxes until they’ve made it out of poverty for the year. In a perfect world I’d raise this threshold to a living wage, but one step at a time. Instead of shielding income at the top of the economy, do so at the bottom of the ladder.
  5. End all federal subsidies to the coal industry. This is not about saving money, it’s about getting out of the coal business. Yes, I know some people want their mines back, but at what cost? Should the rest of us breath in their pollution? Should we destroy our planet with their carbon emissions? I’m all for reinvesting in communities losing their main industry and helping the displaced workers, but we need to cut the chord with coal and shift the money towards renewables.
  6. Approve more nuclear power. Is nuclear energy scary? Yes. Is it overwhelmingly safe though? Yes. Is it clean? Extremely. I wouldn’t power the whole grid on nuclear, but I’d increase it’s share to get rid of dirty energy quicker.
  7. Mandatory background checks on all gun sales. Sure, Mitch McConnell wouldn’t let it get to a vote, right? Right now though, it would pass the House, and if it got a Senate vote, it would pass again. This would be a place to exert some political capital. There are 60 votes to pass this in the Senate. There’s no reason to have a loophole to allow people on the terror watch list and violent criminals to buy a gun. If we have to add language that the government can’t come confiscate guns from law abiding citizens or something to calm conspiracy theorists, so be it.
  8. A federal guarantee of the right to a funded public education. We know that the quality of your education is based on your zip code. We all know that’s unfair. A federally binding guarantee to fund the public education of every student makes sense.
  9. Enforce environmental and labor law portions of trade treaties. It makes me really nervous that the incompetent administration in Washington is re-negotiating trade deals. The main problem that most free trade deals had was their enforcement, not their text. The United States has often been relaxed in enforcing portions of trade deals that dealt with environmental rules, wages, and labor laws. If someone wants access to our market, we should make them play by our rules. We can, through administrative actions.
  10. Do infrastructure, do it big, do it now. The will is there, in a bipartisan way. Do the bridges. Do the roads. Do mass transit. Do ports. Really, do it all. Go big, go bold. Create the jobs. Rebuild the country.

This is what I would do if I woke up tomorrow in the White House. All of it is possible. None of it is an overreach.

Random Friday Thoughts

It’s Friday. I’ve got some random thoughts. Here’s a sampling for you to read:

  • I have not watched a full possession of Eagles’ pre-season football yet, and I’m not going to. Actually going to the games is fun, but watching on TV is brutal. The starters don’t play, or don’t play hard, because they don’t need to. The back-ups are basically there to show their special teams value and get reps. This stuff is mostly unimportant, unless your team is bad.
  • I found out last night that Ronda Rousey won an Olympic medal in Judo. I had no idea. It makes sense with her fighting style, but there was little hype about it. It also means her combat sports career was far longer than I thought.
  • For my two cents, I have no problem with Jim Clyburn becoming Speaker if Nancy Pelosi can’t in January. I’m torn in my feelings about Nancy Pelosi, both holding her career and record in high esteem, and thinking she has been there so awfully long, and is a giant political liability with the voters in the middle. I’m fine if she stays, I’m fine if she steps aside for someone else to be Speaker, but I’d like her to leave leadership after the 2020 Election at worst, an even 20 years in leadership. With that said, and I love Jim Clyburn, but I’d feel the same about him.
  • I’m getting sick of the media allowing Donald Trump to claim he can “fight back” against the Mueller probe- you don’t get to fight a legal investigation. You get to make a defense if you’re charged in a court of law, or Congress. You don’t get to try and stop an investigation- that’s obstruction of justice. When Trump says he fired Comey or pulled Brennan’s clearance because they started the Russia investigation, Trump is admitting obstruction. He’s admitting a crime. He’s making it very hard to argue that he doesn’t belong in prison.
  • Aerosmith is getting ready to celebrate 50 years together as a band with a residency in Las Vegas for 2019. Technically that’s their 49th year, but I’m betting some new music will follow. You know, this is a perfect point for me to note- I’m not always a fan of “new” stuff. If I flipped through every iHeartRadio rock station right now, I couldn’t find a “new” rock band on Aerosmith’s level. Sometimes the new stuff sucks and the old stuff is great.
  • How do you give up seven runs in one inning? Better yet, how are they all unearned? Well, you can only do all of this when you lose 24-4, like the Phillies did Thursday. In one of the great ironies of sports, the Phillies came back to win game two, and gain a half game for the day.
  • That’s all for today. We’ll be back this weekend.
  • The Two Left-Wings

    The one thing everyone in American politics agrees on is that Democrats are moving left. When you dig beneath that somewhat generic statement though, you get to a sort of major detail question: what does that mean? “Moving left” to a populist progressive who voted for Bernie Sanders in 2016 means something different than “moving left” might to a more “identity” driven liberal. In some cases the two might overlap, but if you listen to the rhetoric, the two aren’t aligned very closely right now.

    It’s really hard to keep the American “left” together, and frankly it’s probably not necessary. The idea that you’re going to “unify” the entire left behind a specific policy agenda might sound very good, but liberals and progressives come to politics for different reasons. Someone coming to left-wing politics because of a concern about civil rights may not be particularly passionate about taxes. You can be anti-war and not particularly motivated by pro-choice politics. Immigration reform activists can clash with labor. The American left is really a patchwork of interest groups that come together as much out of necessity as anything else. They may not agree on everything, but it stands to reason in the era of Donald Trump that they would at least all “row in the same direction.”

    The good news is that all of these groups overlap enough, particularly against the current administration, and I believe this will lead to the Democrats winning the House. The bad news is that won’t in-and-of-itself heal the current Clinton-Sanders divide beneath the surface. The good news on that is that the 2020 election is less than a year away, and the new race will re-define the party. The bad news? The last time the Democratic Party was this fractured was after the 1968 and 1980 losses, both of which were followed by blowout losses. The Democratic Party in a fractured state tends to lurch further left and nominate uninspiring candidates to the nation at-large. Donald Trump’s approval may stink, but this generation’s McGovern won’t beat him. Democrats would be well advised in 2020 to not indulge their deepest desires too much, and rather to nominate someone who can appeal to voters they don’t already receive votes for.

    Otherwise it won’t matter which left wins.

    Dear Eagles- Your Fans are With You

    Let me start by stating something controversial- I would probably go. If you’re incredibly lucky in life, you’ll get to be a professional athlete. If you are truly blessed, you might win a championship in pro sports. The invitation to the White House to teams who win major sports championships has become a tradition, even an honor. That’s our house, the President lives in it. These athletes earned that moment to bask in the glow of our country. They may never get it again. So I’d go, even with a bad President.

    I understand why the Eagles are not though. For many of them, the causes they are protesting are incredibly important and personal. It is their God-given right to speak out and use their First Amendment Rights. This is what our country is about. Even the very President of the United States must honor that right. The Eagles players who chose not to go were right in exercising their rights. President Donald Trump was wrong to disinvite them. Period. Full-stop.

    The White House says the Eagles “disagree with the President” and “abandoned their fans.” Nothing could be further from the truth. Fox News showed clips of Eagles players praying to their God to attempt to smear them with the NFL’s controversy about players kneeling during the National Anthem. In fact, no Philadelphia Eagle player kneeled during the National Anthem during their Super Bowl season. The efforts to smear the Eagles players are all about optics and politics, without even taking into account the personal behavior and belief of any of the players. It’s disgusting.

    We know that Donald Trump stands with Super Bowl runner-up Tom Brady, who skipped visiting the Obama White House with his team, so none of this should be a great shock. The Eagles players should know a few things, from at least this fan who was down there in the sea of green on JFK Boulevard for parade day:

    1. We Eagles fans support our team.
    2. You’re right to exercise your rights as Americans.
    3. Fly.Eagles.Fly. Super Bowl Champs.

    No one likes us, we don’t care.