One Year Alive

Right around a year ago, right now, I crawled up the stairs, leaving a trail of blood behind me. I crawled into my bed and laid down, and a short time later I dropped my phone to the ground. To the best of my knowledge, it was about 10:30am. I simply laid there and waited. For what? I wasn’t capable of knowing. Everything after that is blurry and disjointed. My mind was gone. If I had been left there a bit longer, it might have been a wait for my own ending.

I’m grateful to so many people, from close friends to surprisingly close friends who stepped up in those days and since, and have played an amazing role in my recovery. If I am to be honest, in the hellscape of a world we’re in right now, so many of you have restored my faith in people. From the family that sat by me in the ICU, to the friends that visited me in the hospital and at rehab, I could not have done it without you. I love you all, and since I don’t usually get the chance to tell you, let me do it now. Every visit, every text, every message- you were all amazing.

Now here’s the dark side of it- it’s a living hell. For all of the amazing support I received, the reality of this shit is that you suffer mostly alone, no matter what. Every time there’s a set back, or that you realize you’ve lost a bit of your step from being stuck in bed, you deal with it alone. In real time I fought like hell to live, but every kind of dark moment that comes around, you think to yourself whether it was worth it. There’s no manual for this. One day you think you’re a healthy adult. Then you wake up in the ICU and part of your foot is gone. Is it fair? No, it’s not. But life isn’t fair, and I’m the last person that would tell you that you deserve for it to be. When I went into the hospital for the second time back in May, I thought to myself that maybe this is just my fate now. A constant battle for a little bit more. I’ll never quite win it, but I won’t lose it until the game’s over for me. In other words, I’ll never see the victory.

There is a bright side though. What do I fear now? Nothing. I survived the first brush with death. If you want to do something bad to me, top that. You do feel invincible after that. I appreciate a lot of things I didn’t give a shit about before. I notice a lot of things I didn’t before too. I’ll be honest, all I care about is getting up each day and petting my dog. After that I don’t care what else happens.

So here’s about as political as I’ll get- the affordable care act that I worked on for OFA years ago, and St. Luke’s Anderson Campus, saved my life. I have a lot of opinions about President Obama, good and bad, but his signature achievement saved me from ruin a year ago. I’m financially down quite a bit from that day, but it could have been so, so much worse for me. Any attempt to deny people the opportunity to receive care should be treated as an affront to everyone. I’ll leave that there, because there can be no equivocation on that.

And now, the totally non-political part- I have no clue the politics of any of the doctors, nurses, case workers, techs, EMTs, and other folks who took care of me. Unless they looked me up, they didn’t know mine either. They do the work of saints, for people in way worse shape than me. I salute them all.

Sometimes you’re good. Sometimes you’re lucky. Occasionally you’re both. Happy one year to me.

A Pro-Gun Militant Entering the PA-7 Democratic Race?

So this was sent along to me from a woman via e-mail Wednesday. I’m not friends with Bob Brooks on Facebook, but nothing looks inauthentic about it. I also got the sense from the proton mail email address that this person is in opposition research. The woman who sent it to me noted that the folks who posted this are 3%’ers, far right nuts. Sheriff Bieber is definitely a pro-Trump character. I see that last night it got out, so I might as well comment on this.

I’d be fine with prayer in schools if these nut bags didn’t mean their kinda prayers, but our founding fathers were very clear about opposing the establishment of a state religion. I don’t know what Bob Brooks thinks this meme meant about guns, but it meant “no gun control at all.” Zero. If he wants to run as the NRA’s candidate for Congress, I guess he’s welcome to do that. I guess a Ten Commandments in every public building and an AR-15 in every home is the path forward.

I’m sure his handlers will fill him up with the right things to say, that’s their job, but all of this suggests a very “Make America Great Again” world view. As if there was some past time where prayer in schools and a good whooping at home made sure kids grew up right, to be decent Americans. This suggests that our changing society is to blame for our ailments. I guess we could go back to pre-2008, 1972, 1863, 1960, 1954, 1919, or whatever year he’d like. Look, I think the Democratic Party has gone absolutely batshit on plenty of social issues, but I’m really not longing for the backlash of conservatives who long for “yesterday.” All this shows is that the non-candidate Brooks was wildly out of step with Democratic Primary Voters, and this run for Congress is a bait-and-switch.

This is what happens when the DCCC just keeps recruiting more primary candidates, not vetting them, and then wondering why they have massive flaws. They’re already lowering expectations on him, from initially promising the Governor would ask everyone to drop out of the race, endorse him, and raise him money, to he will raise like “$175-200k” in this quarter, and then miraculously every outside group will run here to fund him. By next week they’ll be like Jeb Bush asking you to clap. This is such a bad idea.

McClure Goes Big

I used to live in Vegas. The only betting I did was on sports (If only Pete Rose had said this from the start…). If you ever played the table games in a casino though, you understand the idea of going “all in.” Yesterday, Lamont McClure did that in the PA-7 race. He has a good poll and a lot of advantages in this race, but his fundraising numbers finished third last quarter. So, he loaned himself $200,000 for the campaign. This isn’t money carried over from his County Executive races or anything like that. It’s personal money.

Let’s start with the obvious here- I don’t think $200k assures victory, or anything like that. The reality is that while many of the candidates in this race are struggling to raise cash, someone will spend a lot more than $200k, possibly in this quarter alone. Rumors are that Ryan Crosswell will raise another $350k, almost entirely from outside of Pennsylvania, let alone the district. The truth is that with every additional candidate the DCCC recruits into this race, it’s more and more likely that Crosswell’s out of town Republican donors buy this primary. They don’t care, they’re fine running a Republican as a Democrat, I guess. In fact, they’re claiming their new guy will raise $175-200k, and that will bring in some outside fantasy money. The truth is they’ve not delivered a single promise to this date associated with this candidate, so why should we believe it?

Here’s what $200k does do though. $200k will pay for roughly six pieces of district-wide mail. When you’re the candidate in the lead, and you have the most name recognition, that eases any fall from grace caused by other candidates out spending you. If you’re polling 40% in Northampton County now, it means you probably hold most of that- and that’s about 18% of the total vote. What this means, in moron proof terms, is that there is no physical path to victory for a second Northampton County, labor backed candidate who currently basically polls at zero. You can scream and yell about all the fictional general election polls, all the fictional endorsements from statewide figures, and how your personal negatives actually won’t hurt you- none of that matters. If the existing front-runner spends $200k on paid communications, that’s probably not going to win the race- but I guarantee you, the other person trying to run on the same lane on the track will lose. This isn’t opinion. It’s math. I’m not sure what personal gain some people have with pushing this charade, but they’re not giving honest, decent, good advice.

NFL QB Power Rankings

Meme by Ricky Ogles

Ok, I’ve seen enough. Enough posts about how average to below average QB’s are better than Jalen Hurts. Enough posts from the cockroaches Giants fans about how Jaxson Dart looks great in practice. Enough posts about absolutely nothing. It’s time to weigh in with my pre-season NFL QB power rankings.

Here we go:

  1. Patrick Mahomes- Chiefs QB1
  2. Joe Burrow- Bengals QB1
  3. Lamar Jackson- Ravens QB1
  4. Josh Allen- Bills QB1
  5. Jalen Hurts- Eagles QB1
  6. Matt Stafford- Rams QB1
  7. Jayden Daniels- Commanders QB1
  8. C.J. Stroud- Texans QB1
  9. Justin Herbert- Chargers QB1
  10. Baker Mayfield- Buccaneers QB1
  11. Tua Tagovailoa- Dolphins QB1
  12. Jared Goff- Lions QB1
  13. Brock Purdy- 49ers QB1
  14. Sam Darnold- Seahawks QB1
  15. Jordan Love- Packers QB1
  16. Geno Smith- Raiders QB1
  17. Bo Nix- Broncos QB1
  18. Dak Prescott- Cowboys QB1
  19. Kyler Murray- Cardinals QB1
  20. Trevor Lawrence- Jaguars QB1
  21. Drake Maye- Patriots QB1
  22. Caleb Williams- Bears QB1
  23. Justin Fields- Jets QB1
  24. Bryce Young- Panthers QB1
  25. Michael Penix Jr.- Falcons QB1
  26. Cameron Ward- Titans QB1
  27. Kirk Cousins- Falcons QB2
  28. J.J. McCarthy- Vikings QB1
  29. Jimmy Garoppalo- Rams QB2
  30. Aaron Rodgers- Steelers QB1
  31. Andy Dalton- Panthers QB2
  32. Russell Wilson- Giants QB1
  33. Joe Flacco- Browns QB1
  34. Gardner Minshew- Chiefs QB2
  35. Drew Lock- Seahawks QB2
  36. Tanner McKee- Eagles QB2
  37. Mac Jones- 49ers QB2
  38. Jacoby Brissett- Panthers QB2
  39. Mitchell Trubisky- Bills QB2
  40. Cooper Rush- Ravens QB2
  41. Jameis Winston- Giants QB2
  42. Malik Willis- Packers QB2
  43. Kenny Pickett- Browns QB2
  44. Daniel Jones- Colts QB1
  45. Jaxson Dart- Giants QB3
  46. Tyler Shough- Saints QB2
  47. Dillon Gabriel- Browns QB3
  48. Jake Browning- Bengals QB2
  49. Hendon Hooker- Lions QB2
  50. Aidan O’Connell- Raiders QB2
  51. Tyrod Taylor- Jets QB2
  52. Zach Wilson- Dolphins QB2
  53. Anthony Richardson- Colts QB2
  54. Spencer Rattler- Saints QB1
  55. Shedeur Sanders- Browns QB4
  56. Will Howard- Steelers QB3
  57. Marcus Mariota- Commanders QB2
  58. Jarrett Stidham- Broncos QB2
  59. Josh Dobbs- Patriots QB2
  60. Joe Milton III- Cowboys QB2
  61. Teddy Bridgewater- Buccaneers QB3
  62. Jalen Milroe- Seahawks QB3
  63. Quinn Ewers- Dolphins QB3
  64. Riley Leonard- Colts QB3
  65. Trey Lance- Chargers QB3
  66. Sam Howell- Vikings QB2
  67. Mason Rudolph- Steelers QB2
  68. Davis Mills- Texans QB2
  69. Sam Ehlinger- Broncos QB3
  70. Desmond Ridder- Bengals QB3
  71. Trevor Siemian- Titans QB3
  72. Taylor Heinecke- Chargers QB2
  73. Bailey Zappe- Chiefs QB3
  74. Kyle Trask- Buccaneers QB2
  75. Skylar Thompson- Steelers QB4
  76. Tommy DeVito- Giants QB4
  77. Dorian Thompson-Robinson- Eagles QB3
  78. Will Grier- Cowboys QB3
  79. Adrian Martinez- Jets QB3
  80. Nick Mullens- Jaguars QB2
  81. Brett Rypien- Vikings QB3
  82. Brandon Allen- Titans QB2
  83. Tyson Bagent- Bears QB2
  84. Stetson Bennett- Rams QB3
  85. Tyler Huntley- Browns QB 5
  86. Kyle McCord- Eagles QB4
  87. Josh Johnson- Commanders QB3
  88. Sam Hartman- Commanders QB4
  89. Devin Leary- Ravens QB3
  90. Mike White- Bills QB3
  91. Cam Miller- Raiders QB3
  92. Case Keenum- Bears QB3
  93. Brady Cook- Jets QB4
  94. Jack Plummer- Panthers QB4
  95. Ben Wooldridge- Patriots QB3
  96. Kyle Allen- Lions QB3
  97. Graham Mertz- Texans QB3
  98. Easton Stick- Falcons QB3
  99. John Wolford- Jaguars QB3
  100. Sean Clifford- Green Bay QB3
  101. Clayton Tune- Arizona QB3
  102. Jake Haener- Saints QB3
  103. Kurtis Rourke- 49ers QB3
  104. D.J. Ulagalelei- Chargers QB4
  105. Emory Jones- Falcons QB4
  106. Connor Bazelak- Buccaneers QB4
  107. Carter Bradley- 49ers QB4
  108. Max Brosmer- Vikings QB4
  109. Austin Reed- Bears QB4
  110. Seth Hanigan- Jaguars QB4
  111. Dresser Winn- Rams QB4
  112. Chris Oladokun- Chiefs QB4
  113. Payton Thome- Bengals QB4
  114. Kedon Slovis- Texans QB4
  115. Shane Buechele- Bills QB4
  116. Hunter Dekkers- Saints QB4
  117. Taylor Elgersma- Packers QB4
  118. Jason Bean- Colts QB4
  119. Logan Woodside- Steelers QB5
  120. DeShaun Watson- Browns QB6

Go ahead and argue about it.

Is SEIU Rushing an Endorsement in PA-7?

Bob Brooks will finally enter the PA-7 race for Congress on Friday, and supposedly this time it *will* happen. One would think that would have nothing to do with the timeline of the biggest union in America endorsing a candidate for Congress in PA-7. According to one labor member in the Lehigh Valley though, that may not be the case.

The four existing candidates recently, and somewhat suddenly, were asked to do an interview with local SEIU leaders. Now, it’s important to understand that the SEIU local and state structure is fairly complex, but usually there’s no separation on endorsements. The reason the candidates were hastily asked to do an endorsement meeting, at least according to one person, was that the endorsement needed to be ready for Bob Brooks entry into the race. The Brooks campaign will seek to portray early momentum and inevitability. This is supposed to be a part of that.

Given the overlap of a public sector union doing their endorsement and a public sector union president entering, one could be suspicious. This doesn’t seem like something SEIU would do though. It doesn’t seem like it fits their politics, or recent past endorsement processes. Color me skeptical.

The counter point is pretty clear though- if they are standing with Brooks at a launch on Friday, the process was basically a sham. In fact, if they announce an endorsement in the next couple of weeks, or even before the end of this fundraising quarter, it appears that it was a coordinated hit from the start. I don’t really have a problem with unions knowing who they want on day one and foregoing a formal process to get there, but I do think it’s shitty to make the other candidates march in for a process that was never real.

Again, I’m skeptical this is what’s up. I guess we’re doing full disclosure here though.

The Teamsters are Broke- but They Love PA Republicans, Besides Mackenzie

The Teamsters under Sean O’Brien are going bipartisan. O’Brien is politically lost. As Trump’s GOP tries to kill labor unions of all kinds, the Teamsters President is aiding him. Somewhere under the Meadowlands, Jimmy Hoffa is not smiling.

According to Politico, the Teamsters are handing out cash to the Republican Party:

For the second year in a row, the labor union’s political arm donated to the Republicans’ House campaign arm after nearly two decades of mostly backing Democrats. The labor union’s D.R.I.V.E political action committee — Democrat, Republican, Independent Voter Education — gave the National Republican Congressional Committee $5,000 in the second quarter.

First off, the Teamsters are broke. They gave the NRCC and DCCC $20,000 combined. They are probably hurting, which makes sense, given that professionals in other trades unions will tell you their leadership has no idea what they’re doing. That union is in trouble. This should be a political earthquake of a story on it’s own, but it’s just overshadowed in the bizarre world we live in.

Second off, the Teamsters love themselves PA Republicans. Check out their list:

In addition to giving to the NRCC, Teamsters doled out a combined $62,000 in contributions to nearly two-dozen GOP congressional candidates, including in significant battleground districts:

  • Rob Bresnahan, Mike Kelly and Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania
  • Pete Stauber and Tom Emmer of Minnesota
  • Nicole Malliotakis, Andrew Garbarino, Nick LaLota and Mike Lawler of New York
  • Jefferson Shreve of Indiana
  • Dave Taylor, Bob Latta, Michael Rulli and Dave Joyce of Ohio
  • Jeff Van Drew and Chris Smith of New Jersey
  • David Rouzer of North Carolina
  • Tom Barrett of Michigan
  • Blake Moore of Utah
  • Darin LaHood and Mike Bost of Illinois
  • Troy Nehls of Texas
  • Vern Buchanan of Florida 

The group also gave this year to GOP Sens. Deb Fischer of Nebraska, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Jon Husted of Ohio, and Dave McCormick of Pennsylvania.

McCormick, Bresnahan, Fitzpatrick, and Kelly are Republicans who to varying degrees have to stay awake around elections. The two glaring omissions? Scotty “Insurrectionist” Perry and Ryan Mackenzie. It seems kind of obvious that even a poorly run labor union wouldn’t give to Perry. Mackenzie? Well let’s be honest, he’s just not moderate at all on labor issues. He not only opposes the right to organize and protections for labor, he opposes forward thinking solutions on automation and the rise of AI. The omission is glaring here.

Monday MLB Power Rankings, 8/11

Happy Monday! There’s about 45 MLB baseball games left. Time to bust out the old power rankings for the first time and give you my take on how MLB’s best stack up. Here’s this week’s #1-30 list.

  1. The Milwaukee Brewers
  2. The Houston Astros
  3. The Philadelphia Phillies
  4. The Los Angeles Dodgers
  5. The Detroit Tigers
  6. The San Diego Padres
  7. The Toronto Blue Jays
  8. The Chicago Cubs
  9. The Seattle Mariners
  10. The Boston Red Sox
  11. The New York Mets
  12. The Cincinnati Reds
  13. The Cleveland Guardians
  14. The Texas Rangers
  15. The New York Yankees
  16. The San Francisco Giants
  17. The Miami Marlins
  18. The St. Louis Cardinals
  19. The Arizona Diamondbacks
  20. The Tampa Bay Rays
  21. The Kansas City Royals
  22. The Atlanta Braves
  23. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
  24. The Oakland Athletics
  25. The Baltimore Orioles
  26. The Minnesota Twins
  27. The Chicago White Sox
  28. The Washington Nationals
  29. The Pittsburgh Pirates
  30. The Colorado Rockies

The Brewers are, and have been, the best team in the league for a few months, just now the record reflects that. The next five teams join them in having a chance to win this October. From #7 to #15 there is still a chance to displace some of those teams, but for varying reasons it seems less likely. From #16 to #24 there are some reasons to still be watching at this stage. From #25 to #27 there’s reasons to maybe watch a few nights a week. The next two don’t really even have any sort of direction or idea of what they want to do next. As for #30, God bless your soul, what have you done?

What Exactly Does the DCCC Do?

If you were hired to run a college sports team tomorrow, one of your most important jobs would be to recruit the players that are going to be on your team. You would identify the ideal players that you could realistically recruit to join you, try to get the best player on your list, and then you would put your resources into helping them win. Sure, you realistically don’t mind some competition for spots on your team, but the idea isn’t to have lots of intersquad battles for spots. The idea is to get the best players and put them in the best position to win.

In an ideal world, party politics is a team sport. Staff at the DSCC, DCCC, PA HDCC, PA SDCC, and any other campaign committee, should be trying to build the strongest slate of general election candidates that they can to win the next election. I have to give the DSCC fairly high marks on that front so far this cycle. It appears that they have found the targets that they wanted in North Carolina and Ohio, and may not be far off in Maine. Only Texas looks messy so far. They’re largely avoiding stupid primaries. That’s a good thing, because primaries cost money, and campaign money is precious.

Things don’t operate quite the same at the DCCC. In PA-10, the committee got their candidate in Janelle Stelson, a candidate who finally made the district as close as it should be based on the political dynamics there. Meanwhile in PA-8, there is no major candidate yet, and according to the streets, several candidates who have track records of winning elections passed on running. The candidate that is reportedly the preferred candidate in PA-8 just had to go through a primary battle to keep her job as Mayor, and now she faces a general election with both Republican and Independent Democratic challengers, making it likely she won’t be getting into the race very soon. Meanwhile across the river in NJ-7 there are three serious candidates that are raising hundreds of thousands of dollars per quarter right now, and reportedly a fourth is about to enter, meaning whoever gets to face Tom Kean Jr. will be starting from scratch after winning a brutal primary. That probably sounds familiar to folks here in PA-7, where we’re about to get our fifth candidate in the primary to face Ryan Mackenzie. All of this while there’s a candidate clearing the field and raising hundreds of thousands of dollars in PA-1 (Bucks County), a district that Democrats have literally have no chance of winning unless Brian Fitzpatrick loses a primary (Fitzpatrick voted against Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” and has been winning by double digits for several election cycles now). If this sounds bad, don’t take it as isolated to this region- these problems are persisting in other parts of the country too.

Here in PA-7 is a case study in chaotic recruitment. There are four candidates currently in the race. After a false start or cold feet, the fifth is going to enter on Friday, according to the street word. At least three of the existing candidates met with the DCCC before entering, and received help hiring staff and building their paid media consulting team. After getting them all into the same primary, the committee is shocked to see that two of them aren’t raising a half a million dollars every three months. The third candidate they recruited has become problematic to them, because nobody bothered to vet him ahead of time to figure out he had no ties to the district and was a lifelong Republican and union buster. So since they didn’t like the candidates they had, now they’re telling everyone they have the silver bullet candidate. He doesn’t poll well, even after his bio, he’s never run for office before or raised any money, and has no obvious path to the nomination, but reality be damned. They claim the Governor wants him, and will campaign for him and raise him his money. Of course, they claimed the Governor was going to call and ask everyone to drop out a few weeks ago, but now that the call never came, that isn’t important. They’re bad mouthing the existing candidates, claiming their teams are quitting on them and they won’t show any money raised this quarter. There was a supporter of the new guy in Lehigh County claiming the existing candidates lose a non-existent general election poll to Mackenzie, and badly at that. There’s even a public-sector union member that claims they need to get the existing candidates out of the way because I was mean to somebody on this blog. The list of excuses is almost as long as the list of candidates at this point. There’s no reason to believe we won’t be doing this same thing again with a new candidate come October or November either. This is silly and pointless, and really doesn’t produce winning nominees.

Say what you want about the Republican Party, but last cycle when they decided they wanted Ryan Mackenzie to be their candidate in PA-7, they didn’t put him through a ringer to be nominated. Their leadership bought him the primary over the preferred candidate of the conservative grassroots. The God’s honest truth in PA-7, PA-8, and NJ-7 is that the DCCC could (and probably should have from a pure path of least resistance) have simply went to the most recent Democratic Congresspeople in those districts and guaranteed them support if they had run again. If they had begged hard enough, they might have ran. If they said no, fine, then you go recruit the top prospective candidate in the districts, preferably someone with a strong pathway to winning. What we have here is a mess.

The model of just recruiting a bunch of candidates, teaming them up with all-star DC consultant teams, then making them compete for fundraising dollars with each other until they all fail and you have to go find a new candidate makes absolutely no sense. Pick a candidate, skip the competition. Or if you really think they need to compete with each other, maybe don’t make the field so crowded that no one can get any oxygen. There is no silver bullet, no savior coming to save us all from that.