Donald Trump is leading young voters. He’s winning in Washington. RFK Jr. could be taking over 10% of the vote. Foreign leaders are preparing as though Donald Trump is returning as President. Arizona and Georgia look gone. The uptick of 2% in the uncommitted vote in Michigan spells doom there for President Biden. Trump has a persistent lead and an advantage in the electoral college.
Excuse me for saying, I really hope Donald Trump isn’t convicted, just so we can see him legitimately lose and prove this all wrong.
The electorate rarely moves very far in one Presidential election cycle. Every Democratic nominee for President has received 48% or more since 1996, despite having different strengths and weaknesses. Every Republican nominee for President has received 46% or more since 2000, despite having different strengths and weaknesses. Yes, there is realignment in our electorate right now that has moved states like Virginia and Colorado from consistently “red” to reliably “blue” over the last 25 years. Sure, states like Ohio and Florida moved the opposite way in that time. Even so, national numbers don’t move very much in the end. They certainly don’t move much in one cycle.
Electorates do not change super fast, and certainly not when we’re facing a re-match for President. Ask yourself a simple question- who are the “new” Trump voters? To read the polls, Trump is basically right back where he finished in 2020, with right-friendly RCP showing him averaging at 46%, his 2016 number. What should be even more telling is that polls showing Trump ahead show him making historic, jaw dropping gains amongst traditionally Democratic voters. Mind you, this is happening as he’s losing significant Republican primary votes to a candidate that dropped out two months ago. So I guess what we should believe is that in his third run for the White House, Trump is hemorrhaging moderate conservative voters, but picking up enough Democratic voters to not only maintain his 46-47%, but also to lead Biden in a lot of polls. I’m calling bullshit here.
Polling is really hard. There are lots of rules about who pollsters are allowed to call, and when. There are budget constraints based on what the client will pay (media outlets don’t have unlimited budgets, neither do universities). Newer methodologies, such as web based surveys, aren’t perfected yet. Basically pollsters can’t dig far enough into an electorate that is rapidly changing. Consider that just over 100 years ago, women were not a part of the electorate, now they will constitute a majority between 50.5% and 53%, which is actually a huge gap. Black voters didn’t really have the right to vote in a lot of places until 60 or so years ago, and white voters were 90% of the electorate as late as 1988, and now roughly 30% of the electorate is non-white. This isn’t even diving into the divides on education levels, in a nation where a tiny minority of the nation was going to college even into the 1980’s. In short, I’m not even saying they’re lying about these numbers. I’m saying they can’t course correct enough to get a proper picture of today’s electorate.
Let’s be honest though- we’ve had actual elections, and there are clearly bigger divides inside of the GOP than inside of the Democratic Party. If Biden has a problem, it’s probably more with his moderate voters, and given what we know about them, they probably would rather eat glass than vote for the current GOP. Could they stay home? Yes. Could they vote third-party in higher numbers, especially in traditionally blue and red states? Yes. Let’s also be honest, if Joe Biden is really leading Pennsylvania senior citizens (as many polls have said), he’s not losing Pennsylvania by 1%. Sorry, no. The polls showing Trump gaining 20% or more among youth, Black voters, and even segments of moderates.
It’s fan fiction.