On 43’s America and It’s Impact

George W. Bush is deservedly out of America’s doghouse. The nation’s 43rd President has behaved as a true statesman since leaving Washington in 2009, and did his penance for becoming unpopular. Post-Trump he seems way smarter than people gave him credit for then, and he’s frankly just a much better human being than the next Republican after him. He’s been humanized by his paintings, love of baseball, charity work, and even burying his parents. He also has paid a steep political price, watching his brother, his nephew, and his Vice-President’s daughter be destroyed politically. The time for hating George W. Bush, problems and all, has passed.

With that all said, we cannot overstate enough how disastrous George W. Bush’s Presidency was for our country, and how it got us to where we are in 2023. George “Dubbya” was a tremendously gifted politician, and basically wasted those gifts on destructive things, and would have done more if public opinion hadn’t caught up to him. His Presidency was mostly a disaster. I’ve identified what I view as his chief blunders below:

  • 1. Iraq and his general foreign policy. This one feels pretty universally accepted, as even Trump has essentially railed against this part of his party’s former self. We lost thousands of troops in Iraq, left more wounded and mentally injured, killed hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, gave rise to recruiting for multiple terrorist organizations, spent ourselves into deep debt, harmed our relationships with Allie’s, and wrecked our image in the world. His Afghanistan War had no plan or real goal in mind. He eroded personal liberties and dramatically expanded government surveillance with the Patriot Act. Worse yet? He had at least some bipartisan support for a lot of it. Going into Afghanistan and creating DHS were probably necessary after 9/11. The rest left lasting damage. We continue to pay today for the damage we did to our veterans. It was a series of awful decisions. Taxpayers paid dearly in terms of lives and dollars.
  • 2. The Bush Energy Policy was incredibly backward. In 2001 it was probably necessary to increase domestic energy production. The potential economic impact of the opposite wasn’t acceptable. The decision to completely ignore alternative, green energy sources, and to instead subsidize fossils, was a disaster. First, it exacerbated the climate change, which we didn’t really address nationally for another decade, and in any meaningful way until 2022. Had we started to phase in wind, solar, and nuclear at that point, we wouldn’t have the calls for more dramatic (and impossible) actions now. Second, it left us dependent on oil, including from nations like Saudi Arabia and Russia now. Third, developing new energy sources is a job boom. This was just stupid.
  • 3. The Bush tax cuts were worthless. Sure, rich people kept more money. Sure, they were a little better to middle income earners than Trump’s tax cuts. Beyond that? It blew a hole in our nation’s budget, eliminated the surpluses he inherited, and caused a huge increase in debt, when combined with his huge defense spending. it was the largest accumulation of debt in our history, and we never really climbed out of it.
  • 4. Deregulating the financial system caused a crash of epic proportions. In the late years of the Clinton Administration, Congress repealed banking regulations with huge (veto proof) bipartisan support. That isn’t Bush’s fault. Expanding on that, and lax enforcement of the laws left is. Essentially using the tax code to encourage growth at all costs and then not keeping any eyes on the Wall Street banks while they sold out consumers, lead us to such risky behavior that they melted down the economy- including retirement funds and nearly whole industries (automakers). We then had to do huge cash bailouts, and the Federal Reserve had to move to cheap money (low interest rates) to bail out the economy. The impacts of that are still being felt today.
  • 5. The failure to regulate the “information economy”/social media boom. Does Bush deserve some slack on this? Yes, because multiple Presidents let this go. Was he probably best positioned to address it? Yes. He didn’t. Now misinformation runs rampant. Companies collect ridiculous amounts of information about us, and sell it. Predators target women and children with little oversight. The internet was poisoned. The opportunity to really fix it passed.

I appreciate the post-Presidency of George W. Bush- his defense of democratic norms, push to expand on his work to fight AIDS, and his advocacy for veterans. I think he’s probably a pretty decent dude, all things considered. I also just can’t deny the reality- he’s probably the most damaging President of modern times. His failures unleashed changes in our political parties that basically got us to Trumpism. He dramatically changed our policy norms moving forward. He failed to address major issues facing our world. He probably was the biggest influence pushing Putin to his place today. Bush 43’s Presidency was a disaster- and we still are dealing with it.

No Number of Indictments Will Matter

You hear it a lot in Democratic activists’ circles- the GOP has to pay for Trump. The thought is that after Trump is indicted enough, and maybe convicted, there will be a moment of reckoning. A landslide Democratic victory. Trump will be defeated. His movement crushed. He’ll be in jail then for the rest of his days.

Look, I think the guy is an ass hole and probably guilty, but that’s some sick thinking. There are places in the world where putting former Presidents and rulers in jail when they fall out of favor with the public is normal, but I guarantee you no American should ever want to live in those places. Again, Trump absolutely deserves a conviction in my mind, and some sort of punishment. There’s absolutely nothing at all good about that though.

Here’s the thing though- there’s no reason to believe Trump or his party is going to pay any political price for that though. Let’s start with the obvious- Americans have short political memories. Two years after George W. Bush left Washington in a mess of economic collapse and perpetual war, Republicans won a landslide midterm. In fact, that’s the norm. People forget what they were mad about in a few months, and vote (or not) based on the new guy, the next time they vote. Trump will not be the President during the 2024 Election. Joe Biden will be. If Democrats want to win in 2024, they need to start building up their guy, and now. Trump’s problems might be helpful, but probably less than the insane Supreme Court. Democrats need to start making them the biggest issue in the country.

Second, and probably more importantly, everyone needs to understand that even a blowout in today’s America is historically close. If one in twenty voters in 2008 had changed their mind, John McCain would have beaten Barack Obama, and that’s the closest thing to a landslide we’ve had this century. Since 1996, every Democratic nominee for President has received at least 48% of the national popular vote and at least 230 electoral votes. Since 2000 (the first election post-Perot), every Republican nominee for President has received at least 46% of the national popular vote and at least 173 electoral votes (all but McCain topped 200). In other words, even allegedly “bad” candidates for President were within the “margin of error” of winning, if they could get nominated. The truth is that the 2024 election begins 48-46%, regardless of the nominees and their issues. Over 90% of active voters aren’t willing to cross over and vote for the other party for President- even if they strongly dislike their party’s nominee.

This gets to my last point- almost no one is actually popular anymore, and if they still are, they won’t be a month after they get nominated. Biden will never be popular with Republicans, nor would any other Democratic nominee (yes, including populists). Trump is almost universally reviled by Democrats, as would just about anyone in their field. Biden also has further left leaning voters “in his party*” that don’t approve of him (*saying they’re “in the party” requires some mental gymnastics). “Never Trump” Republicans* that were fine with Katrina, Iraq, and more recently the Dobbs decision, don’t approve of Trump either, as he embarrasses them (*calling them Republicans ignores that they are mostly homeless politically now). As mad as these folks get though, they’re not crossing over to the other side. They’re limited to either not voting, writing in Harambe, or voting for a crack pot.

Basically, Trump has 91 felony indictments, and it doesn’t matter. I can’t 100% guarantee you he wouldn’t beat any Democrat from a jail cell, or for that matter guarantee you he would win if he had no issues. Even if there is some small chunk of the rock-solid Republican base of 46% that is ashamed of him (2% maybe?), they will go back to voting GOP all the way down the ballot. The same can be said of the Democratic base of 48%. Add in a very challenging Senate map and almost exactly evenly divided House map, and we need to get the word “blowout” out of Democrats mouths. Retribution ain’t a thang.

About Me, 8/17/23

What is a word you feel that too many people use?

Great. Is it really great? Really? Michael Jordan was great. Nelson Mandela was great. Mick Jagger is great. Serena Williams was great. That kid who is a local high school football star? Hold off on calling him great. Maybe being great actually means being memorable across society. Just being good, but not memorable, that isn’t great. Don’t cheapen greatness. Make great, great again.

Enough With the Small Donors

Republicans are starting to realize what smart Democrats did in 2020:

“Most Americans don’t vote in primaries, religiously watch cable news or make small donations. But the tiny slice of Americans who do all three have captured the primary process, and because most candidates worry more about primary challenges than general election ones, this sliver has outsized influence over politics generally.”

I’d venture a guess that over 90% of America doesn’t donate monthly to political campaigns or volunteer on campaigns. More vote in primaries, but not by a whole lot. Only maybe half the population even votes for President. More people watch pre-season NFL games than political cable news stations. In short, the more ideological and politically engaged you are, the more of an outlier you are in broader society. The views these folks hold aren’t representative of even their own communities, let alone society. Even someone disgruntled, but active, like myself, is an outlier to the rest of society. If given the choice, most of us would rather not argue with our uncle on Facebook about whether Trump or Biden is a criminal.

The problem though is that politics is an industry, like anything else, and activists are the loyal customers. In 2020 the Democratic Party decided to make the number of small donations you received a metric for being in the debates, and the result was formerly good candidates parroting insane slogans to get more donations- then all losing to Joe Biden badly among the actual voters. “Defund the police” is killing Democrats still, four years later. Now it’s the GOP in 2024, watching it’s field of candidates say nutty shit, in hopes of getting small donors and cutting into Trump’s base. They will similarly disqualify themselves. It will be fun to see how extreme they get in their rhetoric on things like the Dobbs. Decision and Hunter Biden.

Motivating the ideological nuts to make a debate stage is bad politics. It’s worse as you go down the ballot though. What was the point of Democrats dumping money in Kentucky or Texas Senate races? How much money will be wasted on in-party fights for the House and Senate next year? This is insanity.

The inmates are running the asylum right now, and whoever wakes up first and ends this will end up as the next majority party in America. Just don’t bet on it happening in 2024.