We’re in the home stretch of one of the lamest, least exciting elections in recent memory. I think at the macro level, we know the result. If you type “Donald Trump approval rating” into Google, it will tell you 32-42% is the current number. What that means in fundamental terms, is Donald Trump’s approval is, at best, about where Biden’s was (38-44%) when he lost the House in 2022, a net loss of 10 seats for his party. At worst, his approval is where George W. Bush’s was, roughly, in 2006. He lost 32 House seats and five Senate seats, or both chambers. Trump himself lost 41 seats in 2018. For context, Trump’s approval was 40% at the time.

I suspect Republicans are hanging their hats on three things at this point. First, in the Senate, the battle field is mostly red states that still don’t like progressive and liberal Democrats. Second, Joe Biden only lost ten seats in the House and gained a Senate seat in 2022, despite lower approvals, the first election held under much more partisan re-districting systems in many states around the country, underscoring that 95% of the House or more is no longer decided in districts that are remotely competitive. And third, the Democrats nominated some very different candidates in 2026. There are more populists and progressives, some of the progressives now say stuff out loud that used to be considered way out of play, and there are some problematic nominees on a personal level *cough, cough, Crooksy* than in times past. They’re not wrong about some of their points, but they’re skipping context. The Red States don’t love Democrats, but they don’t love Trump anymore. Democrats did decent in 2022 (they still lost the national popular vote, an ominous sign for 2024 that proved true), but they also were running in the aftershock of Roe v. Wade being overturned, which boosted their turnout beyond normal midterms, and certainly beyond a 40% President. And on their final point, yes, the Democrats have gone insane in parts of the country- now do people care that the Democratic candidate wants unrealistic things more so than they care that every single thing costs too much for them to afford now? The answer is probably no.

That’s the macro level. Let’s come down to our local level. Here in the Lehigh Valley, we are usually a bellwether. Because that’s true, I do think I’d give Bob Brooks a slightly better chance than not (Probably 55-60% chances of winning), and might even say the same for Jeff Warren and Meriam Sabih in their races. I’m slightly more skeptical that Rachel Cuevas beats Gary Day, given the recent history of that seat electorally, but I’d even give her 40-45% odds of pulling out the win (Same for Mark Pinsley). The truth is that if more than 50% of voters in the country are voting to take power away from Donald Trump’s party, then that’s likely about where the Lehigh Valley is at too, and if even a slight majority is voting for that, personal misgivings about the Democratic candidates probably (emphasize probably) won’t swing their votes. There are reasons to doubt that though, too.

Susan Wild did win huge in the 2018 wave against Democrats, but that district was better. Even so, she survived in 2022 *despite* the winds being in her and her party’s face at that time. She only barely lost in 2024, frankly even close than the folks above her lost her district. Even when the winds are blowing slightly in one direction or the other, PA-7 doesn’t turn into a 60-40 district. It’s just not who lives here. In the Joe Emrick-Jeff Warren race, the district is almost always a 1% difference in every race on the ballot, so candidate quality and trends all still come down to like a point or two’s worth of voters, and their views. The Sabih-Mackenzie race on the southern end of the Lehigh Valley, as well as the Cuevas-Day race out west in Lehigh County, could be slightly different. They’re newer to the “competitive” race board, and so there’s less historical trends to look at there (not to mention they’re growing areas with more new residents). They do seem more susceptible to trends. They’re also the two state house seats that have been represented by members of the Mackenzie family, so maybe their brand is better there. There’s more unknowns in those. On the whole, I’m most skeptical of Mark Pinsley flipping a district he lost by 9% to Jarrett Coleman in 2022 in a rematch now, but I suppose if we’re talking a wave, that would be the kind of place that is surprising us on Election Day.

There are whispers though that should give people pause. Republicans went up negative on Bob “Crooksy” Brooks weeks and weeks ago, basically skipping the pleasantries that used to define the early parts of campaigns. Some might say they heard a birdie say that Crooksy’s campaign says their internals have them up 12% right now. Never once did anyone who knew anything say anything but Susan Wild and Bob Casey held leads in their 2024 internals though, sometimes hovering around 10% well into the Fall. Clearly they were either misspeaking or well, things swung fast. There are other whispers though out there saying that folks connected to the state party are saying a poll exists that puts Mackenzie up 7%, and Republican sources claim that Crooksy is *ten points under water* in personal approval in their polls, which supposedly have Mackenzie leading. My thought here? They’re all liars, kind of like their candidates. Gun to my head? Crooksy holds a 1-2% lead because most people are like the rest of my family- “Brooks seems like he’s as bad as you say, but Mackenzie and Trump need to go.” So I do believe Crooksy is way under water with voters, which is why he’s now running stupid ads where his co-workers literally tell us “Bob is a good guy!” (no he’s not) and try to make us like him more because he’s a baseball coach, but it’s like dude, I go to 50-60 professional baseball games most Summers and there are *plenty* of garbage people involved with the games and as fans at the game. In the end, I think slightly more people would rather vote for a guy that steals from his family though than votes for the guy who stole their health care, their gas money, their grocery bills, and their costs of living. I won’t make this distinction, I’m leaving it blank. I’m just telling you that unless the Republicans drop the real big personal bombs, on top of the relentless negatives they ran so far, Bob “Crooksy” Brooks is going to win this by a bit.

What I hear about the Emrick race is a little different. Polling shows people would like to vote Democratic, and they don’t even hate Jeff Warren, despite the elementary school level attacks on him for DUI’s decades ago (Seriously, this is one of those negatives where you should assess if he grew up from those transgressions now, but campaigns use this shit because it works.). The problem is there is a small residual group of people who like Emrick, and are possibly going to vote Shapiro-Brooks-Boscola-Emrick. Is that sane? Not really, on a policy level it’s schizophrenic, but well, whatever. If Warren can just convince a tiny fraction of those people to connect the dots between Emrick voting with MAGA Republicans in Harrisburg, and the deterioration of their quality of life, he reverses the close losses Democrats took in recent years. But it’s a really small group of people, maybe a point, and Emrick has been around for 16 years. It’s not easy.

I haven’t heard quite as much about the Sabih-Mackenzie or Cuevas-Day races, while there’s lots of chatter about Pinsley and Coleman, and well, I just am again saying I have my doubts. If there were three people that deserve to be fired in a purging of the GOP though, Jarrett Coleman, Gary Day, and Mailou Mackenzie (Yes, I know I spelled her name wrong, but does it matter? Does she do anything?) going would be good for anyone and everyone. It would probably raise the GOP’s EQ and IQ as a whole.

One other factor I would factor into any of these races that actually end up being as close in a month as I believe they are now- local tax increase proposals. Northampton County’s 43% tax increase is going to be about as popular as having your leg cut off (I’d know a bit there), regardless of the reasoning, and Jeff Warren has already wisely, and very publicly condemned it. Lehigh County’s 17.72% proposal is no Jane Ervin level (Yes kids, that’s pre-Obama, look it up. Also though, for as bad as I thought she was back then, you have to give her at least some credit for things like the IronPigs being here, so she got too much of a beating.), but it still wasn’t a great headline. Municipalities and school boards are raising taxes too. While I don’t particularly love this, or think it’s a fair way to view it, many of the elected officials doing it are… Democrats. It’s hard to raise someone’s taxes while telling them you’re going to make their life more affordable. I get it’s necessary on some levels. I also hear about some of the problems local government is having right now even paying employees, so I understand. Now, make some guy who can’t afford his mortgage in South Whitehall or Bethlehem Township understand. Go ahead, let me know how it goes. Do I think county tax increases are going to save a Republican in a wave election? Hell no. In a close election? Yeah, I think it’s possible.

I think this election goes one of two ways, both locally and nationally- most likely, the Democrats win every close race, and make some races that shouldn’t be close close, because the public is just sick and tired of listening to a fat, racist, stupid, old/near death, orange man say idiotic shit at rallies, fall asleep in his office during events, promise us checks he’s never going to send us, make a fool of himself fighting a war in the Middle East that he and his moron Defense Secretary can’t win (In no world is that drunken talk show host some kind of expert on “war.”), deport more peaceful people than violent criminals (deport the shit out of violent criminals, but we all can see this is ridiculous.), and fight with the countries we grew up calling allies (Canada? France? The United Kingdom?). The alternative? Voters look at Democrats and remember all the things they hate about us, and while we win a House Majority nationally, we fall short of our best hopes for a large one, fail to win the Senate, and down ballot we don’t flip places that we usually don’t win. You’ll hear a ton about caravans, “transgender surgeries in schools,” defund the police, and all the regular Republican boogeymen. The reality is that some of these newer Democrats are going to lean into the fight, and normally that is still not going to go well, but we’ll see this year. *I think* people have connected the dots to realize that Donald Trump never gave a shit about making their lives better, and that will rule the day. We’ll see if Democrats are quite abrasive enough to let them off the hook.

The Democratic Party is going to win the midterm. It’s going to win the U.S. House. It’s going to win *most* of the major swing state statewide elections. There’s a chance, albeit I’m still more skeptical than others, that we’re going to flip the Senate. I do not think this is going to be super close. The only thing that might get in the way of it being a bloodbath is that Democrats picked some highly controversial nominees in a few races. Basically if you’re in a blue or swing district or state, and the GOP nominee isn’t a very unique brand, and all you have given the GOP to attack you with is “they’re a liberal,” you shouldn’t make others plans for next year’s swearing in day. Hell, Democrats nailed some nominees in red states this year, and they even might win yet too.

Basically, look at this as a worse inverse of 2024. Everything costs too much. People think the President has lost a step. Foreign policy news is basically all bad, and what’s worse for Trump is that he’s basically Bush now, since he started his own cowboy war in the Middle East. But more than anything, everything costs too damn much. Health care, food, housing, and gas, things that are inevitable for everyone, cost way more than they did. If the Democratic Party were smart, that’s all they’d be saying at all this election. The truth is that you don’t have to pin yourself down on specific policies you’re going to do until you actually know what you can pass, because voters don’t understand that anyway. You say vague things like “restore health insurance subsidies and cuts that were made to Medicaid,” or “we’ll end the war in Iran and get oil flowing from the region, while restoring funding for renewable energy,” and voters will just assume you’re doing the opposite of what they don’t like now. And honestly, you are. A sane political party would realize they’re on the one yard line here and walk into the end zone. We’re not so sane.

The bigger problem isn’t our election rhetoric though, it probably won’t matter. The problem is more what will happen next year. We already have Raskin and others salivating about “oversite” powers. We have incoming members talking about eliminating prisons or borders. We have folks who want to spend the next two years impeaching people in the Administration, despite the fact that it is abundantly clear that nearly no impeachment trial of anyone has really any chance of reaching the constitutional mandates two-thirds Senate vote for removal. They want to “abolish ICE” when Trump probably already has enough money from his “Big, Beautiful Bill” to keep it running for two more years. They have all of the grand plans, and even if the House is a blowout, they’ll be extremely lucky to have 52 Senators to try and pass all of this with, and Chuck Schumer probably leading one more term. In short, they’re going to go down there, promise lots, and probably do little to none of it. this will define the party, at least in part, for 2028 with the public. And they already don’t like us, they’re just tolerating us.

There are things that can be done next year, they’re just not all that sexy. Our military has a depleted stockpile of weapons because of this stupid war, and they’re going to desperately need to replenish them. Force a reversal of Medicaid cuts in exchange for the money. They’re going to want to increase domestic energy outputs to deal with gas prices. Force returns to Biden era funding for clean and renewable energy in exchange. Force increases in funding for affordable housing in exchange for other things Trump wants. Force Trump to agree to popular Democratic policies in exchange for the things he needs to keep the wheels on the bus for two more years. Take tangible, realistic wins, and take them every chance you get.

I don’t expect Democrats to be measured in victory though, and frankly that’s a problem. Many Democrats complain that we’re held to a standard the other side isn’t. This is sort of true, in part because we say we want to use the government to fix things. Also, we just spent a decade calling Trump and his supporters low grade jackasses. We sort of set the high bar ourselves. If we’re viewed as an “Always On Camera” political party, filled with grandstanding and people seeking their viral moment, frankly people don’t take us seriously. Based on what we say, they shouldn’t.

“The Resistance” of 2017 and 2018 was probably a failure for the Delocratic Party and America. Yes, we won a landslide in 2018, but ultimately those wins started to retreat in 2020, and frankly the only reason Biden survived in 2020 while “defund the police” and “green new deal,” and every other stupid slogan was hung around our neck, was that the public didn’t believe Joe Biden was like the rest of the party- then he got into office and a sizable chunk of the public believed he fell in line. We’ll win in 2026. There is no “above the fray” figure right now for 2018 that could outrun how the party will be defined by 2028. That’s a big problem, because America desperately needs to directly reverse course on much of the Trump agenda.