The New Democratic Establishment’s Loser Values

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

Two things happened yesterday that are only sort of unrelated. Senator Martin Heinrich of New Mexico endorsed modern Nazi sympathizer Graham Platner for the Senate race in Maine. Look folks, on this, I’m not “vote blue no matter who.” This guy has Nazi tattoos, he is pals with Nazis, was a Blackwater mercenary, and posts horribly racist shit on the internet. All of his behavior screams Nazi. If we nominate this piece of human sludge, we should lose the race. Heinrich isn’t alone though. Ruben Gallego recently endorsed him too. Ro Khanna has also endorsed Mr. Nazi Tattoo. Not to be left behind, Bernard Sanders had to be involved as an endorser. In case you’re wondering, all of them but Heinrich (to my knowledge) have endorsed Bob “Crooksy” Brooks, a man who stiffed his mother-in-law for $55k, said President Obama “sucks,” stated his hate for Colin Kaepernick very loudly, and spouts off fanatical stuff about guns and religion. Kind of fits, right? We went through this before with John Fetterman, and people ignored the obvious. Fetterman was a degenerate nut-job, and now we’re going to arm an army of him in Congress, if these bros have their ways.

Now, as I said, there was a second thing that happened. Last night Muhammad “Sef” Casim lost a special election for the Prince William County Supervisor race in the Woodbridge, VA district. Dems had held it for 38 years. “Sef” was a problematic candidate, not unlike Platner. He says really racist shit. Casim was also an outright antisemite. Republican Jeannie LeCroix beat him by 6% and almost 20% wrote in another candidate. After winning a primary running as a far left nut, Casim blew a lay up race, failing to even reach 40%. Much like Mamdani, the general electorate was less impressed with his left-wing populism and looked for literally any other option but to vote for this bigot. Northern Virginia, much like New York City, is very Democratic. Once you got beyond the primary, most Democrats don’t want this kind of vile shit.

The “new” Democratic Establishment, built of consultants and operatives from the Bernie and Fetterman world, are building a Democratic establishment that will cement MAGA control of the White House for years to come. It’s a road to nowhere. Here in PA-7 they are promising jobs to young candidates and electeds who endorse them, and painting a rosy picture of a future that looks very much like a Bernie rally. It’s fools gold. Bernie Sanders lost cleanly twice when he ran for President, because he couldn’t build a coalition of people who were bought in enough to vote for him against the “boring old” establishment figures that he and Mr. Nazi Tattoo want to create. Regular, real people who live in this country don’t want this shit. Most people want to be normal. Our party does not want a revolution:

Analysis of the data suggests the Democratic coalition can be broken into three distinct blocs. Moderates—voters who identify as moderate Democrats, independents, or anti-Trump Republicans—account for 47 percent. They are demographically diverse, older on average, and the most electorally flexible—only 45 percent say they have never voted for a non-Democratic presidential candidate.

A second bloc, Progressive Liberals, make up 37 percent. They are reliably left-leaning, whiter than the other blocs, and disproportionately concentrated in suburbs and on the West Coast.

Last comes the Woke Fringe—voters who identify as democratic socialists or Communist. These add up to just 11 percent of the coalition. The Woke Fringe is the youngest of the three groups, the most conspiratorial, the most likely to report poor mental health, and—not incidentally—the most likely to spend excessive sums of time on the internet. Notably, previous quantitative and qualitative Manhattan Institute research on the GOP coalition shows that the youngest and most hyper-online Republicans also skew hardest toward ideological wackiness.

So why the hell are we listening to a bunch of lefty white guys who want to expel Jews and welcome Chairman Mao to the party? It’s somewhat the fault of donors. It’s somewhat the fault of podcasters. It’s largely the fault of “the bubble children” in DC that manage the interest groups in between their stays at the party committees. What they are building is a party that isn’t likable. They are building a party that is weird, fake, and harmful in the eyes of most Americans. They’re building a freak show. We need to reject them. A fake “working class hero” movement lead by an 80 something year old that used his campaigns to make money isn’t useful.

The Fields are Set in the Lehigh Valley

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

Well, petitions are over. We know who is on the ballot now here in the Lehigh Valley. Let’s take a look at what our options are on the ballot.

Governor and Lt. Governor

So, there’s no surprises at all. No gadfly candidates who made the ballot, no freak shows, no party dissidents. Governor Josh Shapiro is the only Democrat for Governor. State Treasurer Stacy Garrity is the only Republican. Lt. Governor Austin Davis is the only Democrat in that race too. Republicans Jason Richey (Allegheny) and John Ventre (Westmoreland) are the only Republicans. I’m voting for Shapiro and Davis. Simply put, Garrity and whichever of these folks wins are simply too dangerous to essential public needs, such as health care, public education, infrastructure, and the environment. I have my disagreements with the Governor’s judgment on several issues, but this isn’t the time to deal with those.

Congress- PA-7

Only four of the gaggle of announced candidates made it to the starting line. Bob “Crooksy” Brooks is a total fraud. Carol Obando-Derstine seems like a solid person and Democrat, I’d have nothing bad to say if she got nominated in this race, and I’d vote for her in November. Ryan Crosswell is a Republican and a union buster. I’m voting for Lamont McClure. I will keep this as simple as can be. In eight years as County Executive he expanded farmland preservation, kept Gracedale County owned, didn’t cut services to the public, and didn’t raise taxes. In the aftermath of the “Big Beautiful Bullshit Bill,” we’re going to need members in Congress who understand the way cuts to Medicaid, the ACA, infrastructure spending, and all the other government programs that were cut are actually hitting us locally. Additionally, he’s been an advocate against new warehouse proliferation and for passenger rail from Amtrak. I think we have two pretty good candidates, I am just going to vote for him.

State Senate- 14th

Only two folks filed. Democratic incumbent Nick Miller and Republican Omy Juriel Maldonado. Nick has done a good job in his first term. While not making waves, he’s made his way into Democratic leadership and is delivering for the people of Valley. I don’t have a vote in this district, but I’m for Nick Miller.

16th

So only three of the four Democrats made it to the starting line. Richlandtown Mayor Wayne Codner, Pennridge School Board Member Bradley D. Merkl-Gump, and Lehigh County Controller Mark Pinsley. The Bucks Dems tried to herd everyone into backing Merkl-Gump, whom I’m guessing will be the best fundraiser in this race. Pinsley has the name recognition here from losing in 2022 by 9%. Codner is relatively unknown, but his profile as a veteran, a Black man, and the Mayor of a very red town is pretty impressive. I think if we’re truly trying to win this seat and nominate an authentic candidate, Codner is the strongest to me. But I think we should let them all campaign a bit and see.

18th

Senator Lisa Boscola has a challenger from both sides. My guess is that will mean she did something right to Lehigh Valley voters. Apparently losing for the State House by over 50% to Bob Freeman has not soured Taiba Sultana on the idea of this quixotic primary on the Democratic side. I don’t know who tells her this is a good idea, but she’s going to lose her home precinct in Easton in this race. If Taiba wanted to run a primary where she could get 20% and be competitive while ranting about ICE and genocide, she should have run for Congress. This is a sideshow. Republican Scott Janney is their sacrificial lamb this time, and he’ll do way better than Taiba. But he’ll lose by at least 15%. I’m for Lisa Boscola. Again, she’s delivering the things our local governments are asking for. You may wish she was more of a leftist, but be honest with yourself, then she’d lose. That’s not who lives in Northampton County.

State House- 137th

Since I live in this seat, I’ll start here. County Councilman Jeff Warren is challenging Joe Emrick. I’m voting for Jeff Warren. Simply put, Joe Emrick is not there for our schools, our seniors, our infrastructure, or our environment. He’s a no vote on legalizing recreational cannabis, thereby denying our students and seniors the tax dollars that are going across the river into Phillipsburg, NJ, from our customers. He’s an ex-teacher who really doesn’t want to solve property taxes or fund the schools, so the worst of all worlds. Simply put, he’s a road block.

131st

Milou who? Ryan’s Mommy is back, running to be the self-proclaimed most Conservative state elected in the Lehigh Valley. Meriam Sabih is running against her. Look, by default I’m for Meriam Sabih. With that said, I thought her last campaign was very energetic, practical, and impressive. She ran as a serious person with thought out policies, and that makes her better than Milou Mackenzie.

135th

Steve Samuelson is being challenged by Republican Joseph Poplawski. I know nothing about this guy, other than he will lose in the general. I’m with Steve Samuelson.

136th

Bob Freeman is being challenged by… oh, it doesn’t matter what his name is. Bob is the best legislator in our region, and at least to me, in the state. In 40 years the guy has never, not once, embarrassed us in his service. I’m with Bob Freeman.

138th

Up in the northern tier of Northampton County, Jared Bitting is challenging Ann Flood for this seat. This is really tough terrain for a Democrat, but I’m for Jared Bitting.

183rd

Zack Mako is being opposed by Deirdre Kamber. I don’t know her at all. Friends of mine say very nice things about her. I’m for her I think, but let’s see her campaign.

132nd

Mike Schlossberg is being opposed by Republican Caren Lowrey. I know nothing about her. Mike might make some poor endorsements, but Mike is a very, very good state representative. For every reason I stated that we need to re-elect the Governor, Senator Miller, and Senator Boscola, and every reason I stated we need to remove Joe Emrick, we need Mike re-elected to the House. As Whip, he is one of those ultimately responsible for moving progress forward.

134th

Pete Schweyer is being opposed by Miriam Alicia Maldonado. Again, I know nothing about her. Basically everything I wrote about Mike basically applies here too.

187th

After a two year break, Gary Day is back roaming the halls of the State Capitol aimlessly. Bless his heart. He’s being challenged by two Democrats, Rachel Guynn-Cuevas and Geoffrey Whitcomb. I know nothing about either right now.

22nd

Fresh off of her win, Ana Tiburcio is being challenged from all sides. Ce-Ce Gerlach is challenging her on the Democratic side. Bob Smith must not have lost bad enough in the special election, because him and his 200 and some votes (I think?) are back. I’m for Ce-Ce Gerlach. Look, I watched that debate. I may think Ce-Ce is further to the left than I like, but she knows the issues and she’s going to vote on the right side because those are her values, not because other legislators tell her what to think on the issue. Allentown can do better, and it should.

NOTE- I somehow left Jeanne McNeill out of here. Feel free to laugh at me, I’ve literally done work for her. She’s a great Representative and deserves another term.

A Phillies Roster Outlook, 3/10

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

I feel the need to keep reminding people that the Phillies were actually a 96 win team last year that won their division by a lot. If they’re “running it back,” which they really aren’t, that’s not a bad thing. The Mets maybe improved a bit on paper from last season, but it’s only a bit given the key players they let walk out the door to begin with. The Braves could get bounce back years from some of their best players, but so far in camp they’re losing players to injuries and suspensions. No, the Phillies didn’t sign a ton of new free agents, but given the young talent arriving and the few players they did bring in, I think you have to be trying to find fault with them to not pick them as at least a prohibitive favorite in this division.

Now, with all of that said, you don’t win the division in March. You pick a team in March. The question is, how does this team compare to the 2025 one. That may depend on if we’re talking about the Opening Day team or the playoff team, but the question remains. I’m going to walk through that a bit here.

The Line-Up

SS- Trea Turner

DH- Kyle Schwarber

1B- Bryce Harper

3B- Alec Bohm

LF- Brandon Marsh

RF- Adolis Garcia

C- J.T. Realmuto

2B- Bryson Stott

CF- Justin Crawford

Ok, so absolutely no shocks at all here. My guess is that on days where Otto Kemp is in left instead of Marsh, Garcia and Realmuto will move up and he’ll slot seventh. I’m expecting some regression from Schwarber (I’d be shocked if he hit 56 homers again), but nothing major- he still hits well over 40. I expect a similar season from Turner to last season, at least offensively, but his defense will probably regress. I’m expecting a big season from Bryce Harper, and he’s not off to a break neck pace so far. From there I expect pretty much career norms from four through eight. None are truly bad players, they probably all end up in the range of 2 WAR or better, but none are competing for All-Star nods or MVP’s. Then there’s Justin Crawford. I’m going to keep saying how much I like him, and I think others will eventually join. No, I don’t think he’ll ever hit 30 homers. I do think he’ll continue to grow into a double digit homer guy, and I think you’ll all see that he sprays a lot of extra base hits in the form of doubles and triples. If he’s hitting .300 and swiping 30 plus bags, I think he’s a real asset.

Rotation

LHP Cristopher Sanchez

LHP Jesus Luzardo

RHP Aaron Nola

RHP Taijuan Walker

RHP Andrew Painter

The backbone of this team remains pitching. Sanchez looked rusty in his first WBC start, but looks healthy. Luzardo got paid, and that’s good for everyone. I don’t see Sanchez regressing at all this season. Luzardo did have the best year of his career last year, which makes you think he could, but he also had a half dozen starts that prevented him from contending for the Cy Young, and he could improve on that. The success of this staff is really what happens after those two though. Nola has looked outstanding so far, which has me quite excited. Walker just threw very well for Mexico in the WBC, but I think it’s fair for us all to assume he’s a fifth starter type. Painter has had really, really good results so far. His delivery looks like it did pre-Tommy John, which is really good. He has not missed many bats so far this Spring though, and that is my one pause for concern. As long as one of these three is pretty good and another is a league average five, the staff should be fine though. Zack Wheeler is back throwing bullpens and on target to be pitching by May, meaning he may throw a full month more than last season. Obviously we need to see how he’s doing at that point, but if he’s 85% of the Wheeler we had, the rotation is very, very strong again.

The Bench

C Rafael Marchan

INF Edmundo Sosa

INF/OF Otto Kemp

INF/OF Dylan Moore

I think that Sosa and Kemp are locks to make this team. I think Sosa will continue to be who he has been since he got here in 2022, which is a very good utility player. Kemp is going to get his chance to answer the question of “what he is,” as I think we’ll see him face lefties in left field and accumulate several hundred MLB plate appearances this year. I have Marchan beating out Stubbs for one basic reason- Stubbs can’t hit at all. Neither is going to be an offensive juggernaut, but if you really want 40 or 50 starts from the back-up catcher this year, there’s no responsible way you go with Stubbs. The last spot is a tough one. Topper has said he wants versatility, so I’m taking Moore over Bryan de la Cruz. If I were the GM, I would go the other way. The last guy shouldn’t really get many starts anyway, so I’d rather take the guy I’d be happier with getting plate appearances as a pinch hitter. He also could take some starts in left, though I don’t think the Phillies really want that.

Bullpen

Closer Jhoan Duran

Top Righty Set-Up Man Brad Keller

Top Lefty Set-Up Man Jose Alvarado

Righty Set-Up Man Orion Kerkering

Righty Reliever Jonathan Bowlan

Lefty Reliever Tanner Banks

Lefty Reliever Zach McCambley

Righty Reliever Zach Pop

This seems to be a battle between McCambley, Pop, and Kyle Backhus, with Max Lazar and Seth Johnson on the edges with Lou Trivino and Tim Mayza. I’m taking McCambley and Pop because they have to make the team, or be gone. In the end, they’re going to be throwing mop up innings anyway. The front six in this bullpen are going to be very good. Remember last year, with Romano, Alvarado, and Strahm opening the season as your top three arms? Keep your eye on Bowlan, who appears to be a late bloomer. Last year as a rookie, he was one of the top rookies in opponent batting average. He can give you length and he’s good at limiting solid contact. I’m expecting good things.

Next time out I’ll try and predict the IronPigs as well. I’m not sure how or why people are looking at this roster and predicting a huge drop off from last year’s 96 wins? The Braves are a busted mess and the Mets bullpen will kill them, assuming they don’t miss Pete Alonso too much first. This team basically looks like they’re as better as Crawford and Painter make them, and I think that was always the plan. The Phillies have refused to move these prospects for several years, waiting for this point. I think they’ll be pleasantly rewarded for that.

Your World Last Week, 3/10

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

It’s 70+ degrees outside. Even a month ago, this was unthinkable. Then again, everything on our television right now was unthinkable a couple years ago, so keep perspective, folks.

So anyway, the news… yikes. In the biggest news in the world, Big Foot is apparently in Portage County, Ohio. While I’d like to call this crackpot shit, apparently their are footprints of a very large individual in the areas he was “seen.” In very similar news, Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas had their primary elections last Tuesday. In the premier races of the night, James Talarico won the Texas Senate Democratic Primary and John Cornyn and Ken Paxton are heading for a runoff on the Republic side. You may recall that Paxton was literally indicted for securities fraud and investigated for abuse of office, but hey, that seems like Senate material for me. Meanwhile, human shitstain Congressman Tony Gonzales has withdrawn from his re-election after finishing first with 43%, but failing to avoid the runoff. You might re-call that Gonzales had an affair with aide Regina Santos-Aviles and she ended up committing suicide by lighting herself on fire. It’s amazing that 43% of the people voted for him. Of course, Gonzales was the “moderate” in this race, as his opponent, Brandon Herrera, wants you to know that he is the proud owner of a 1939 edition of Mein Kampf. Meanwhile in North Carolina longtime dictator President of the North Carolina Senate, Phil Berger, is trailing his primary by 23 votes for re-election.

Moving from the profoundly stupid to the merely dumb, Taylor Lorenz, someone that younger people apparently made into a famous culture reporter, is in fact a moron, and has no idea who is paying her. In New York City, some Hamas-loving, loser children tried throwing an explosive device at protestors they disagreed with and got arrested after it failed to blow up. First off, these kids are too useless to even get terrorism right. Second, it turns out they had very wealthy refugee parents here in Pennsylvania. The Democratic National Committee is basically broke, which may be good news for Democrats. New polling suggests that Democratic voters think the Democratic Party is insane, which is completely true. Donald Trump has appointed Erika Kirk to the Air Force Academy Advisory Board, because… idk. The National Cancer Institute hasn’t made a single grant this fiscal year. For real. And there’s this guy, Professor Jiang over in China, who thinks Jewish people created Islam, or at least says that. He also thinks 20% of white American girls in their 20’s are on OnlyFans. He has 2,000,000 YouTube followers. The internet really was a mistake.

The World Baseball Classic is underway, and there are no shocks so far. The United States, Japan, the Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico are all good at baseball. Kyle Schwarber and Aaron Judge can hit a baseball very far. Paul Skenes is good at pitching. The biggest surprise of the tournament is Cal Raleigh stiffing Randy Arozarena when he tried to shake his hand (they’re teammates on Seattle) and Arozarena ripping him after the game. I’m with Arozarena here. In other sports news, it’s conference tournament time in NCAA Basketball. For my money, I’m taking Michigan (Big Ten), Duke (ACC), UCONN (Big East), Florida (SEC) and Texas Tech (Big 12) to win the major men’s conferences. Some of the women’s tournaments are already done, but if you’re filling out your bracket, you can pick UCONN and South Carolina to win almost any game they play. Closer to home here in Pennsylvania, Penn State won yet another Big Ten Wrestling title this past weekend and their media starter has like 1.5 losses on the season, so they should win another national title. In closing, sad news, the “Exciting Whites” broke up in Philadelphia, as Reed Blankenship has moved on. This is life as an NFL fan. Your team wins, your players start getting paid the real money to go elsewhere.

Is there other news? Oh yes, war with Iran. American and Israeli bombers killed the Ayatollah and many other leading religious radicals in the country. What has commenced is essentially a regional war of damn near everyone in the region against Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, and some rebels in Yemen. Of course, this is making weird bedfellows, as Pakistan has pledged to defend Saudi Arabia, who is on the same side as the United States and Israel, even though Pakistan is fighting Afghanistan right now, and just a few years ago Americans entered Pakistan to kill Osama Bin Laden. Even more telling- Trump doesn’t seem to have any plan for who will now take over in Iran, assuming we can even topple the IRGC that are still in place. Remember all that talk in 2024 that a vote for Kamala would lead to war? Oh yes, the good ole’ days.