How PA-7’s Primary was Like 2018’s, and How it Wasn’t.

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

Eight years ago I had a kind of front row seat to the spectacle that was the PA-7 Primary. This time, to the extent it matters, I was mostly watching from backstage. Even so, I can’t help but notice a lot of things that were the same then as now, and a few things that are not. Now the big question is if they’ll even matter.

So I had coffee on Friday with one of the candidates and I couldn’t help but eventually say to her that the irony was not lost on me that in another cycle the DCCC would probably have moved mountains to have a candidate like her, and this time they and really the entire establishment of the party really did their best to leave her behind. While the rejection of a woman by a party where the majority of our primary voters are women is noteworthy, it’s important to understand that this is actually more of a similarity than a difference- the party picked a person and then spent like crazy to get them. 2018 was the year of the woman, and outside groups came in and spent like drunks in the closing weeks of that primary to get Susan Wild across the line and *not* have John Morganelli get nominated. The DCCC and related Democratic groups have decided they want to run alleged blue collar “everyman” types in 2026, and they spent like crazy to make sure they got Bob Brooks. They spent so much for Bob that they spent DCCC dollars earmarked for the general election to push the guy across the line. This was a trend that played out to varying degrees in PA-1 and PA-10 as well, and PA-8 had no race. They are going to spend to any number they have to in order to get the narrative they want. You really can’t avoid it. And by the way, the NRCC does the same thing. Ryan Mackenzie was basically a welfare candidate in the 2024 primary, but outside PACs spent like crazy to get him across. It will be fascinating to see what happens over this next week in neighboring NJ-7, where backers of Tina Shah have come in and gone dead negative on Rebecca Bennett lately. We’ll find out if the DCCC really wants her or not.

Another thing that has become apparent- getting elected to some county office in Northampton County is not a route to the Congressional seat. Lamont McClure ran in second place in Northampton and Carbon Counties, respectable for a candidate that got outspent and really had to run against the popular Governor from his own party. He got dead last in Lehigh County, and by a lot. You know what that reminded me of? John Morganelli. Morganelli held on to win Northampton in 2018, but got absolutely left in the dust in Lehigh. Also, both hit a relatively low wall in fundraising pretty quickly and were majorly outspent. In both cases a person who was not an elected, in fact two other people, but was relatively involved in party politics, got major backing from outside of the district, and their fundraising (and outside spending) took off. Wild did not nearly have the thumb on the scale for her that Brooks needed, but her outside supporters spent everyone else into the ground in that race. The white elected guy from Northampton did not have a chance either time. There is an interesting dynamic here, between a major swing county that decides national elections and the national Democratic Party- the folks in DC do not want the candidates that win general elections here. Now this is not as cut and dry as that last sentence sounds, because there are other factors in this district (like turning out Lehigh County), wanting a candidate that is more flexible to running the kind of campaign they want to run, and the fact that many, many more people vote in a federal primary than a municipal one, but it still comes out to the same. If you zoom out to the national level, one could argue this is a national tension for the Democratic Party, as swing districts are much more rebellious against the messages our party wants to run on. One could also look at the numbers though and remark that Democrats actually have performed *better* in swing districts and swing states than they have in solidly Blue or Red areas in 2022 and 2024. Nevertheless, you can see the tensions.

Now this leads me to a couple of other observations that are fairly obvious coming out of this- playing the local politics game to run for Congress here is pointless. There’s not enough money here to “win” the in district political endorsements and turn that into a winning campaign. They can come in and swamp you. Also, and I don’t think you can call this an accident anymore, the national folks come in here and build large fields, often times large and divisive fields, in part because it’s much easier to shape the race to get the result you want in a field of four or more than it would be in a one on one primary. The DCCC met and talked to all four of the candidates before they entered the race, discouraged none of them, and yet ultimately leaned as heavily on the district as possible to get the candidate of their choice, both times. Neither Wild in 2018 or Brooks in 2026 were anywhere remotely near an actual 50%+1 majority in their victories, and they didn’t need to because they had enough other candidates in the field that would take a legitimate amount of votes to know that they probably could win if they got to 30%. It’s divide and conquer politics at it’s finest.

Now the obvious differences are really two things. First off, this time the party decided to embrace a Bernie Sanders backed populist, something they didn’t do in 2018. Boy, it does seem like they never pick the non-white candidates here, maybe I’m the only one seeing that. The national party has decided 2026 is the year they’re going to try Bernie’s way apparently, as we’re seeing in places like Maine as well, and I think it’ll burn them more than they think, but there’s still a chance that sticks for a while because I fully expect them to take the House. This is a wholesale directional change though, and I think a lot of Democrats who were good Obama-Clinton-Biden-Harris voters are going to need to come to grips with this- white populism is probably going to be the dominant ideology in our party too after the recent Supreme Court decision gutting the VRA and basically killing off “Majority-Minority” districts in our politics. Democrats are probably going to win the House with some folks we would not have liked in 2018 or 2022, and at the same time the CBC is going to take a dramatic hit in membership across the South. It’s a different party, and it’s probably going to get more different. I don’t think we’ve seen even the tip of the iceberg of the changes this is going to bring yet, and I’m just waiting for the Republicans to get our state legislative map into federal courts and find a friendly judge. I hope I’m wrong, but I fear I’m not.

And of course, the bigger, and somewhat related thing here- Bob Brooks is not Susan Wild. Wild came out of the 2018 primary with less help from major party figures (her big supporters were EMILY’s List, NextGen, and Planned Parenthood) and her perceived negative by some was that she would be too left for the district. That ended up not being true, at least until the new map gave her Carbon County and took away the good Democratic parts of Monroe. She had nothing personally offensive about her as a person, she was a candidate standing on the set of positions she ran on. Brooks is quite different than that. Yes, I think he will be attacked as a leftist, a “union thug,” and whatever other partisan arguments the NRCC will make, some of them at least partially true (he was backed by Sanders, Ro Khanna, Ruben Gallego, and other troublesome leftists), and some are just generic anti-Democratic talking points. He and Wild do have that stuff sort of in common. Wild didn’t have the personal baggage of Brooks though. Democratic primary voters at least partially (I mean, 59% voted against him) papered over his personal issues. His campaign is going to take the bet that they’ll downplay him stiffing his mother-in-law, and frustrations with Trump will win the day over Mackenzie. That’s a plausible theory that may happen, Trump is very unpopular right now. It also might not happen. These are not a partisan Democratic audience like the die-hards voting in our primaries. As things like this trickle out, it’s more likely general election voters will at least take a look at them. Bob’s strength, which is that he’s basically a generic 2026 Democratic nominee with no serious individualized policy positions, is also his negative- let’s face it, the party won him that primary, it was more of a victory for Josh Shapiro than Bob individually. There’s no reservoir of love for him personally, as is true of the overwhelming majority of candidates in 2026. These voters aren’t going to believe him because he’s on their team. They’ll either decide stopping Trump is their first priority, or they’ll decide Bob is too much of a scumbag to stomach. I can honestly say both things are true, so we’ll see which plays out.

Now with the benefit of hindsight I think you can look back and see the obvious trend lines here. Sometimes history repeats itself. Other times you nominate someone who blows up in your face. I know which deserves to happen here, but it’s harder to say which will. I guess we’ll know six months from now.

So Now What?

/ Rich Wilkins / 3 Comments

Well, it’s over. Really over. After more than a year, the Democratic primary for the 7th Congressional District of Pennsylvania is over. Bob “Crooksy” Brooks won. He got 41.74% of the vote, winning every county. As a matter of fact, he won by 20 points. In the end, his vast list of national supporters won the day. The DCCC was so hellbent on nominating him that they reportedly moved several hundred thousand dollars (from what I was told, money earmarked for his buy-in to the Democratic Party’s coordinated campaign) into the race late. My guess is that there was pressure put on them to do so by someone, but we’ll never hear who that was. Since he won, it really doesn’t matter much.

Ryan Mackenzie’s campaign wasted no time pouncing. From Bernie’s blog:

Allentown, PA — The Mackenzie for Congress campaign issued the following statement in response to Democrats nominating Bob Brooks in PA-07.

“Tonight, after spending millions of dollars in dark money on his behalf, the Democratic establishment got their hand-picked candidate: con-man and fraudster Bob Brooks. These groups steamrolled local Democrats and hijacked the democratic process in order to nominate a corrupt political insider, a wealthy lobbyist with a vast stock portfolio, and someone who has a record of stealing from his own family. The establishment Democrat machine has done this for one reason: they know that Bob Brooks will follow orders from his political bosses, just like he did as a union boss. The people of the Lehigh Valley and the Poconos will reject this dumpster fire of a candidate,” said Mackenzie for Congress spokesman Arnaud Armstrong. 

“As a result of Brooks’ history of scams and schemes that we heard about throughout the primary, the Mackenzie for Congress campaign is also announcing the launch of the Bob Brooks Hotline. Residents of the community who have been ripped off or targeted by conman and fraudster Bob Brooks – or have other information about his checkered past – can report their experiences by calling (484) 272-4215.”

Check the Facts:

Ok, so that should set the table for what kind of campaign this will be. Once again the Lehigh Valley will be one of the biggest battlegrounds in America. And this campaign will be nasty. Very nasty. On the one hand you have a Trump acolyte who has voted loyally for MAGA values. On the other hand, you have a man that lacks any values or soul. It’s enough to make you want to not vote.

I spent close to a quarter century doing campaigns, and at any point in there I would tell you that this is too important to over think. If you want Trump to lose power, you should vote against his party. Trump is absolutely loathsome enough to feel that way. Mackenzie was infamously a yes vote for the “Big, Beautiful Bill” that cut Medicaid to the bone, cut funds to fight climate change, and gutted the Affordable Care Act, amongst it’s many horrible acts. That is a worthy reason to vote Ryan Mackenzie out.

On the other hand, as our progressive friends reminded us in 2016 and 2024, you have to give people something to vote for. I mean, do we want to kick out one guy we don’t like to elect a hypocrite? I’ve spent months telling you what a bad guy Bob Brooks is. In good conscience, I can’t tell you now to just vote for him anyway. I think the guy is a crook. I didn’t give a damn when Pete Buttigieg or Josh Shapiro said otherwise. But I suppose most folks just figure I’ll support my party, right? I mean shit, I worked for Obama, Clinton, and Biden, how can I not want Trump to lose Congress? Surely whatever “shared” values I have with the guy who stiffed his mother-in-law, the awful guy I first remember as a bartender, must outweigh the personal, right?

At a different time in life, yes. This version of the Democratic Party? The Graham Platner/Bob Brooks version of the party? I have to admit, I have nothing here. I signed up for the party of Bill Clinton and John Kerry, not this. I will absolutely be voting Democratic for other offices this Fall, but this one? I know a lot about Ryan Mackenzie, and I’m not really excited about him continuing in his current job. Bob is a dirtbag though. He can say “heck yeah” all he wants and pretend he’s some tough guy biker, but in the end he’s a guy who took from his own family. He’s not an improvement on really much of anyone. As the party accepts more and more problematic candidates, I’m not sure I care enough to care. The guy is a racist, let’s face it, you can’t find a famous black guy he likes (hello Barack Obama and Colin Kaepernick). I want no part in electing this guy. If that costs us the House, maybe the Democratic Party should be better. I’ve said for a long time that I’m not a “vote blue no matter who” type. Well, that’s going to be put to the test here. I broke down and voted for Fetterman at the 11th hour in 2022. I’ve regretted it ever since.

I was asked earlier today if I planned to take all of the stuff down that I wrote about Crooksy. The answer is no. I had several people reach out to me today to say they’ve learned a good deal from this site, and that’s worth more to me than getting a Christmas card from some elected official. I’m not going to endorse Mackenzie right now, I think his record is reprehensible. But I’m also not going to tell you to fall in line and vote for Deadbeat Bob. There’ll be a campaign, and we’ll see what happens. For now, my plan is to either leave it blank or write in someone else. I have to admit, I’m only kind of judging folks who reach a different conclusion.

Predictions for Tonight

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

Ok, I’ll weigh in on what I expect tonight.

PA HOUSE 22 Democrats- I was pretty certain CeCe Gerlach was going to win this one most of the way. She’s got plenty of flaws, but she outworks her opponents and is versed on the issues she wants to address. Two problems with my theory. First, the majority of these voters probably weren’t her voters for Mayor, the only other time she’s been in a one on one race. So did she convert them? Two, she got outspent pretty decisively with outside money is my guess. So, do I think she wins tonight? Yes, I do, but much closer. Either way, I think she secures the nomination. I’m thinking under 55-45.

PA HOUSE 117 Republicans- Far right Republican Jamie Walsh of Luzerne County is defending against former United Way CEO Bill Jones in a race that has largely become about data centers, with Walsh opposing them mostly outright and Jones taking a middle ground position. I think Walsh hit the sweet spot with his very red district. He’s still far, far right, but opposes the thing the people are up in arms about. I bet he wins.

PA HOUSE 120 Democrats- Joanna Bryn Smith will beat out Fern Leard by a bit over 10%. House Leadership weighed in heavily here and it will make the difference. Say 57-43.

PA HOUSE 121 Democrats- The race to replace Eddie Day Pashinski in Wilkes-Barre was a little lower key than I expected. I think Council President Jessica McClay wins her race over Michael Stadulis. She is well known in Wilkes-Barre, and while turnout always sucks there, it’ll be the bulk of this primary electorate. I’m saying 60-40.

PA HOUSE 187 Democrats- I don’t know the first thing about Geoffrey Whitcomb or Rachel Cuevas. They could be the best candidates we have or the worst ones, and I’d know little to tell you either way. I doubt there was a ton of spending on this race, as neither probably raised much or got a lot of outside help. So, what I’ll guess is Cuevas wins, as Democratic voters tend to like voting for women when not given much else to work with. I’ll guess 60-40.

PA SENATE 16 Democrats- I don’t know what I hope for this race, but I think Mark Pinsley beats Bradley Merkl-Gump 56-44. Lehigh County will carry the lion’s share of the votes, and Mark will win them despite all the endorsements for Merkl-Gump. The blatant anti-semitism thrown into this race late in the game is absolutely insane and disappointing, but I have a feeling it won’t backfire on Pinsley, who both had no part in it and is actually Jewish. We live in unwell times.

PA SENATE 18 Democrats- I think Lisa Boscola will get about 95% or more of the vote tonight, with Taiba Sultana getting 89 votes. Yes, 89 votes, not 8.9%. The rest will be undervotes and people voting for Mickey Mouse and other fictional candidates. The fun in this race is whether Sultana gets more write-ins than a.) she needed signatures to make the ballot and b.) than there are write-ins for fictional characters like Harambe, Lisa Ann, Barack Obama, and ET.

PA SENATE 20 Republicans- Ok, here comes my first earthquake of the night. I think Lisa Baker will lose her seat after a couple decades tonight because “skill games” operators are funding Tyler Meyers, and he is hitting her on flashpoint issues in their primary. He left the Army for refusing to take the Covid vaccine, he claims she supports transgender people, and he’s pro-life. He also has attacked her on data centers, and I believe that is the secret sauce in red areas. Meyers will get 52-55% tonight.

PA SENATE 22 Democrats- Marty Flynn will get at least 65% of the vote tonight and defeat Jeffrey Lake. In fact, I’m calling it 70-30. He’s better known and frankly hasn’t done anything to disappoint his voters. This won’t be close.

1st CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT Democrats- Bob Harvie has all the endorsements and is an incumbent commissioner in Bucks County. Lucia Simonelli is a former Senate advisor on science issues running to his left. This will not be remotely competitive tonight. I’m saying 70-30.

3rd CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT Democrats- I know that literally all of you are only coming here to read about two races, so I purposely made you read through all of those for my own amusement. Ok, so while a lot of ink has been spilled over the impact of national endorsements, whether the Governor put his thumb on the scale or not, or how much was spent, I’m going to tell you something- Philadelphia is the smallest major city in the world. Elections are decided block by block in a city of 1.6 million people, often times by conversations had from neighbor to neighbor. Yes, there is a ward system in Philadelphia, and yes the ward leaders in West and North Philadelphia are some of the strongest organizers in the country, but a lot of the work here is literally done after church around a table with neighbors talking coffee. Dr. Ala Stanford is super impressive and I think she got off to a fast start in this race. The late decision to pull out of appearances at the last minute didn’t go unnoticed though. Chris Rabb grabbed lots of major endorsements, including from people like AOC. I think this was a mistake by him. He could have ran to Sharif Street’s left and maybe found converts who agreed. I don’t think nationalizing the race was a smart strategy. As for Street, the State Senator is from maybe the best known political family in Philadelphia- Dad was Mayor, Uncle was State Senator. Sharif is quite different from his elders, but his name does carry positively in the 3rd District. In the end, I think all the noise and chatter from people who can’t find their way down Lancaster Avenue (which is really quite easy) helped Street. The folks “know” him in the district, and I think that carries the night.

7th CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT Democrats- Ok, so the one you’ve all been waiting for. It’s been a long, strange journey. The DCCC, the Governor, Allentown’s electeds, and even Bernie Sanders have put their thumb on the scale here for Bob Brooks. Bob won the money race, especially the dark money race, by a lot. There are going to be a lot of hurt feelings about this race tomorrow, and I more than suspect that some people are going to feel some of them at me. Oh well, I knew what I was doing. Ryan Crosswell switched parties, moved into a district he had no ties in, and ran a race for Congress. He has serious liabilities as a Democrat, and yet I think he probably did better with folks who met him than most others expected. He won’t get my vote, but hats off to him for the effort I guess. I think he’ll finish third tonight, but a competitive third. Carol Obando-Derstine is a good Democrat with deep ties to this district, and the impressive endorsement of our former Congresswoman. I had a candidate picked, and they never lost my support, but Carol impressed me personally and is more than worthy of your vote today, if you did that. I think she’s going to finish fourth though. I’m voting for Lamont McClure. I think he was a very good County Executive in Northampton County and has the right political temperament to represent the Lehigh Valley in Congress. Regardless of who funded the late advertisements on his behalf (the truth, you’ll find to be stranger than the BS you’ve been told), very clearly McClure had the late momentum, and he was the original front-runner if for no other reason than name recognition. The question is, was that enough to pull him over the top? The feeling I get is yes. It feels like the undecided “normie” Democrats came home. However, I asked myself something over and over the last few days- what would people with a lot less information than you think and do? My belief is 30-35k ballots were cast before today in this race. The first candidate who was on TV here significantly (albeit mostly from dark money) was Bob Brooks. He told the voters their Governor and Bernie Sanders want him. My guess is that it won’t win him Northampton County, but he will pick up the overwhelming bulk of the votes that don’t go to McClure there and put him in second. If this race follows the pattern of 2018’s primary, Crosswell and Obando-Derstine will both do significantly better in Lehigh County than they do in Northampton County or overall, and might even be the top candidates over there (depending on how they actually do). So the question becomes, who do I think finished higher between Brooks and McClure in Lehigh County and Carbon County, first off, and second off, is that margin larger than McClure’s in Northampton? My thinking is that McClure’s spending came in the last two to three weeks, and Brooks was going for about six weeks. I think Brooks will over perform in the mail in all three counties, and end up with a slight edge. I’m saying Brooks between 30 and 33, McClure between 27 and 30, Crosswell between 20 and 25, and Carol at 15 to 20. What does that say about the race? Well, if I’m right, it means it took them everything they had to push this pile of waste across the line, but they did do it. It also means they may have failed with one less candidate because in fact Bernie and Shapiro don’t have the coattails they think. One thing I’d like to know after this- why the Brooks backers used Bernie in ads over Buttigieg? Pete is probably more universally liked, so that surprises me. I guess we’ll find out soon.

10th CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT Democrats- Literally everyone backed Janelle Stelson. She’ll win 70-30 over Dauphin County Commissioner Justin Douglas. We’ll find out how smart that was in just under six months.

Ok, if you got through all of that, good. I’d give you Democratic State Committee predictions if I thought that would make any sense, but it doesn’t. Oh well, I will anyway. Basically, my general idea here is that in Northampton County it’s better to have Bethlehem (city or township) after your name than not. So I’m betting the incumbent men win because they’re Bethlehem, and the women are unopposed. In Lehigh County I have no clue how you’d break this up. In general I think the incumbents will win. I’d say Allentown is a factor, but turnout is usually anemic. Make of that what you will.

Let’s see how wrong I am in the next few hours.

My Ballot Today

/ Rich Wilkins / 1 Comment

Well, it’s primary Election Day in Pennsylvania. There is only one race I can vote in with more than one person actually on the ballot, not counting party leader elections. For the first time since 2002 I am not seeking (either on the ballot or by write-in) a seat on either the county or state committee, and I’m quite happy about that. While I will remain in the Democratic Party as an active primary voter, committee people are bound by rule to support all Democratic nominees, and there are simply an increasing number of candidates that regardless of how bad their Republican opponent is, I cannot vote for. Here in the Lehigh Valley, I will not be casting a vote for Bob Brooks in the Fall, regardless of the results tonight. I would not support Graham Platner or Abdul Al-Sayed if I lived in their states. I’m not sure I could stomach NJ-12 candidate Adam Hamawy’s relationship to the “Blind Sheikh” who was convicted of the first World Trade Center bombing, though the rest of his story is pretty good. I’d really struggle to support a lot of what the party is starting to accept, and that’s even while saying I wouldn’t vote for any Republican in 2026 because of Trump, and I’d be fine with even some of the more progressive challengers out there (James Talarico, for instance). I’m happy to be free of having to bullshit. I’m also not working for any candidates today, only for independent expenditures this year. So all I have to do is vote today.

So the biggest news from my ballot is who I’m leaving off, not who I’m for. So let’s dig into it.

I’m leaving Governor blank. I’m going to vote for Josh Shapiro in the Fall, he’s a smart guy and quite competent, and his opponent Stacy Garrity is nuts. His term as Governor is largely a continuation of Tom Wolf’s policies, which is just fine for me. What were his two big pushes though as Governor? An attempt at school vouchers and data centers? None of that is enough to make me want to vote against him in November, as that would be harmful to many people in this state if it worked out. But tomorrow both the Governor and Lt. Governor are running unopposed. Given the Governor’s decision to not only endorse Bob “Crooksy” Brooks, but then to appear with him, I’ll decline today to vote for him. I’ll remember in 2028 too. I will vote for Austin Davis for Lt. Governor though, despite his mostly quiet endorsement in the race. Austin is the future of the party right now, really the only statewide Democratic elected that I suspect we’ll see running for another Pennsylvania office soon. I hope the future is better than the present.

As I said before, I’ll be voting for Lamont McClure. He’s got the right government experience to combat the Trump/Mackenzie cuts to essential services (like Medicaid) and he knows how to win here. The assertion of the receptionist in DC and other backers of Crooksy that McClure is the weakest Democratic candidate to beat Mackenzie is silly. We know general election voters like him, they’ve voted for him. This idea that we should care who raised the most money is completely stupid. Any of the four candidates will raise hundreds of thousands of dollars by July 1st if nominated. Give me the guy who has won elections over the deadbeat.

I’ll be voting for Lisa Boscola. No, I’m not writing in Taiba Sultana. I doubt many people will be. This campaign is nonsense, and we should treat it as such.

I’ll be voting for Jeff Warren. Jeff is running for PA-137 in the House and I think he’ll do a good job.

I’m going to decline to endorse in the state committee races. I have a lot of friends running. I wish them all well.

That’s my ballot. I doubt it shocks anyone. Good luck to almost all today, and everyone go vote.

Profiles in Courage, Congressional Primary Edition

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

Chris Rabb is in Philly running for the 3rd Congressional District. He is neither the city Democratic Committee’s candidate of choice or Congressman Dwight Evans’. He has campaign with potential 2028 rivals of Governor Shapiro’s and vocal critics of the Governor. For that matter, he has been fairly outspoken about the differences between himself and the Governor. Governor Josh Shapiro has appeared in back rooms to talk to the building trades and others about the threat that Rabb posts for him and the party. Josh Shapiro has refused to pick a horse though and endorse a candidate against Rabb in that primary.

Most of his allies are with Sharif Street in that race, but his own frosty relationship with Street makes him unable to go along. You see, he didn’t want Street to be the State Democratic Party Chairman back in 2022, and he vocally said so, so now he’ll never forgive that. Dwight Evans, the outgoing Congressman, has been a great ally of Shapiro’s. He supports Dr. Ala Stanford. Apparently she isn’t what the Governor is looking for. So instead of picking one, the Governor is giving a pass to a straight out critic of his.

Meanwhile the Governor took the time on the Sunday before the election to come to Allentown, and after cancelling his public event for worries about something, had a private event with Bob Brooks. You know, a candidate who has embarrassed him during this race. This is a man of such low character that we should all be running away from him. This is the guy the Governor wants to use his political capital on the behalf of. A complete deadbeat.

You know what, I’m totally bought in for 2028. Totally and completely.

Crooksy Spent Sunday with the Harrisburg Establishment, McClure Spent it with the People

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1LTXHSiwNU

You tell me who represents us? A Governor who cancelled his public appearance, probably out of fear of being protested? Or the good folks of Second Baptist Church in Bethlehem? Power brokers doing their self interest, or the base voters of our party? Reject Bob Brooks on Tuesday. Vote for the people.

ADDITION- This came to me late, but is worth noting- Bob “Crooksy” Brooks requested a 90 day extension on his financial report that was due on Friday, in an effort to make sure no one knows the shady Harrisburg and Washington powerbrokers who are trying to buy him a seat in Congress. Not only does he duck public events and live off of dark money, Crooksy hides who his masters are from the public.

Crooksy’s “One of Us” Argument Was Always Incorrect and Insulting

/ Rich Wilkins / 3 Comments

Bob “Crooksy” Brooks has centered his entire campaign for Congress around the theme that he is “one of us.” He has simultaneously argued that he is an authentic, working class person because of his jobs as a fire fighter, bartender, and whatever the hell else he claims, but also that he is the choice of the Democratic establishment because he’s endorsed by the Governor, two-time Presidential nomination loser Bernie Sanders, and some other folks that ran for President and got the “not quite” from the voters. It never quite made sense, and it appears as though it didn’t close the deal with Lehigh Valley Democratic primary voters, despite millions in dark money spending intended to push him across the line. It seems likely that a very clear majority will reject the Governor’s pick for this seat on Tuesday, even if he doesn’t lose the primary. God willing though, he’ll lose outright.

This whole dumb campaign has always been about a bunch of outsiders telling us that this long time deadbeat was the “true Democrat” to take on Ryan Mackenzie in the Fall. Bernie Sanders? Not from here. Pete Buttigieg? Not from here. Elizabeth Warren? Not from here. Chris DeLuzio? Five hours away with good traffic. Josh Shapiro? He’s spent more time on the Main Line, because he’s from down there. They all propped up multiple dark money Super PACs and kept endorsing a guy that nobody up here really knew, and let’s be honest, the ones that did, didn’t like him. The lack of endorsements from literally almost anyone in Bethlehem City Hall for this guy, a guy they have negotiated contracts with, across multiple administrations and councils, is deafening. Not one Northampton County state legislator or county elected official, no elected official in Easton, was willing to endorse a labor leader from their back yard, despite the obvious goodwill it would carry from the Harrisburg elites. His only local endorsements at all came from Allentown- a city where his union has a very strong local, and where frankly all the people who endorsed him were recipients of campaign contributions from both him and that local. So basically no one that actually had to deal with Bob, or live around Bob, was willing to back him. It was all outsiders, trying to force us to accept him.

Bob’s case all along though has really been he’s more “one of us” than the others, and that’s why he’ll win. Who is this “us” that he is talking about? For the last four cycles we nominated Susan Wild as our standard bearer in this district. She went to Washington and behaved as a Democrat, mostly voting with the party and not criticizing the party like Bob. And what was his criticism for? Congresswoman Wild went down to Washington and voted to expand health care access, rebuild infrastructure, raise wages, protect Civil Rights, protect women’s rights, protect marginalized communities, and try to make housing more affordable. No, it didn’t all come to pass, but she did all you can do as one member of Congress, she supported our Democratic values. Bob does not support our Democratic values. He thought Barack Obama sucked as President. Why? Did he dislike the Affordable Care Act, Dodd-Frank, killing Osama Bin Laden, saving the automobile industry, executive action on the DREAM Act, ending the Iraq War, or which of Obama’s many achievements as President? I’d love to know. Or was it just that Barack Obama was a Black man? I can only ask that because Bob also expressed his dislike of Colin Kaepernick after he protested against police brutality towards Black people, which well, is pretty racist. Those aren’t Democratic values. Bob chose to defend guns and call for school prayer with the ultra right-wing III’ers in response to a mass shooting in majority Latino El Paso at a Walmart. Bob definitely didn’t share our Democratic values there. When it’s been time to be a good Democrat, “Crooksy” has been consistently absent. After his international union decided to not endorse Kamala Harris, “Crooksy” declined to do so at the state level. As a union leader, he has funded election denying, anti-women’s right to choose Republicans and given them political cover. In a moment where he thought he was safely talking to college students recently, he admitted that he backed current Republican Gubernatorial nominee Stacy Garrity for State Treasurer because Governor Shapiro asked him to in 2024, showing that he’ll do whatever for his powerful masters, even screw over the Democratic voters who nominated that candidate. I guess that access was worth giving up whatever values and beliefs Deadbeat Bob claims to have. I think we can safely say though that his values are a lot different than most of our’s. The last person we nominated for Congress never behaved or spoke this way. She came prepared to discuss the issues and policies impacting our lives, unlike Bob.

So who is the “us” they are talking about. I’m going to be honest, I don’t think it’s anyone. I’ll say something nice for a moment about our friends and neighbors who chose to register as Independents and Republicans- they don’t live their lives like Bob, they’re better than that. “Crooksy” made the decision a long, long time ago to literally stiff his family for a buck. Over 20 years ago he accepted a $55,000 loan (he calls it a gift, but…), which in 2008 he signed a promissory note to pay back each month. He paid back $100 and not a dime more for the next decade. Whatever he and his ex-wife want to say (by the way, she still owes that money too according to the court ruling, so I wonder why she’s defending him?), if they disputed that they owed the money, they never should have signed the note. Then she sued him, and won, at the Northampton County Court of Common Pleas. He appealed, arguing that she waited too long to sue him, and the Superior Court of Pennsylvania rejected his argument, and ruled in her favor. That was in 2022. He still hasn’t paid a dime of that money, instead “quit claiming” the property to his new wife, who has the exact same damn name as his old wife, save for one letter. He really thinks he can run away from a contract that he signed. He goes so far as to exclude it as a debt on his ethics filing with the House of Representatives, which prompted an ethics complain being filed against him. Look, I obviously have some deep differences with my Republican and Trump voting friends and neighbors, I worked for Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton. I would not talk to them, much less still be their friends or acquaintances, if I thought they were such a deadbeat that they would try to stiff their family out of money and then lie it away to the world. This guy claims he’s a family man on his website. We all know the Republicans will rip that to shreds if we nominate him, and frankly they would be right in this case. The number of people in “Crooksy’s” version of “us” is limited to people who would scam family members out of money they loaned them to help them start out. That’s frankly a very, very small “us.”

Bob doesn’t really even deny anything. With him, it’s always “well there’s more context,” or “it’s complicated” kind of double speak going on. He hides, his campaign and supporters try to intimidate people, and he repeats Josh Shapiro’s name five times every time someone tries to call him on the carpet for his choices. When some outside group comes in to hold him accountable, he just cries it’s “MAGA,” without offering out any evidence either way. The guy truly thinks he should be given a pass to everything, as if he’s something great. I get that he’s a narcissist, but I’m more disappointed with those who have defended him. They know this guy is unworthy of the office of Congressman, which is an amazing thing to say in these days and times, quite frankly. The support this man has received is bootlicking at the highest of levels, done by people who value their place in the party and the favor of the Harrisburg and Washington establishments above all principle and Democratic values. It’s gross. We don’t have to defend the indefensible. There are decent people running as the other options. This man is not one of us, he is not worthy of our support.

So what is Bob Brooks, who is the “us” they speak of? Basically a bunch of consultants in DC decided after 2024 that the coalition of people who voted for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris was insufficient, and needed to be replaced. They are willing to sell our values out and try to appeal to people who oppose our values, figuring that we’ll just stay in line anyway because of Donald Trump. They might be right about how Democrats will behave. They’ll be wrong though, maybe in 2026, maybe in 2028, or who knows, but most people don’t consider themselves an “us” with a guy who stiffs his mother-in-law and behaves like a narcissist when called on it. Most people, even people with issues with their family and money, don’t go seeking out to scam them out of money. In the not distant future, whether it’s Tuesday night or in the next few years, people will discard Bob for the disloyal person he is. With him, it’s not just a story, it’s who he is.

I have said who I will vote for on Tuesday. I have expressed my distaste at different points for one other. I am willing to say though, unequivocally that I would vote for Lamont, Carol, or Crosswell in the Fall if they are nominated. Lamont and Carol are actual Democrats from here, and I am at least satisfied that Crosswell will be an improvement on Mackenzie at this point. Bob would be a low point in politics that I am not willing to accept. I hope that on Tuesday we reject this attempt to force a fundamentally flawed person down our throats, and re-think the party values that got us to this point. Join me in voting to reject opportunism, bigotry, narcissism, lies, and bootlicking. Vote no on Bob Brooks and his lifetime of opposing “us” every time it mattered.

Is Crooksy Too Toxic for Shapiro Now?

/ Rich Wilkins / 1 Comment

Josh Shapiro was going to come campaign for Bob “Crooksy” Brooks tomorrow- before he wasn’t. He pulled out in the eleventh hour. Was it the planned protests against him? Or was it late polling showing problems? Street word is the latest polling was inconclusive and very close. Crosswell has an outside shot from what I hear. It’s likely to come down to Deadbeat Bob and McClure though- they’ve been first and second in the last three polls I’ve seen. While Carol was fourth in two of those three, I bet she over performs by a few points on Election Day.

The Governor and Crooksy thought everyone would fall in line behind the scam campaign to sell him as a good Democrat for the Fall. Despite a 2:1 advantage in dark money spending for Crooksy in this election, his backers are worried and pouring money in. A Medicare For All PAC went up spending for Deadbeat Bob this week. All of these groups are seeing that in fact, endorsements from the Governor, Pete Buttigieg, Bernie Sanders, half the dark money groups on God’s green earth, Satan, and Elizabeth Warren, they could never quite sell a guy who stiffed his own Mother-in-Law. If they’re lucky, they’ll sneak a weak, morally bankrupt person across the line with like 30-33% of the vote. They truly had to shove this pile of donkey loaf down our throats.