The Most Embarrassing Crop of Candidates in the History of the Republic, by a LOT!

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

Right now in Michigan there’s a three way primary on the Democratic side for U.S. Senate. The Republicans are going to nominate Mike Rogers, who might just win. General election polling shows that both Haley Stevens and Mallary McMorrow would lead Rogers and likely win. Both are losing the primary, in part because both are running and taking from the same voters. Instead “Doctor” Abdul el-Sayed, whose candidacy is a noun, a verb, and Gaza, leads the primary. He fashioned himself as a left-populist doctor, even though he apparently mostly has not practiced medicine, and in his last statewide run for Governor (2018), Gretchen Whitmer beat him like a drum. He trails polls against Rogers, in part because his candidacy is just a grab bag of left wing catch phrases, and in part because of serious questions about who he really is. He’s the only candidate we should be actively avoiding, and well, he’s the candidate winning.

Just across the river and down the road a bit is New Jersey’s 12th Congressional District. I worked there in 2014 for Bonnie Watson Coleman’s first run for Congress. It’s a mostly well-to-do, highly educated district that includes such well known towns as Trenton, Princeton, and Plainfield, and basically wraps around Rutgers. Bonnie retired this year, and Dr. Adam Hamawy has emerged from a crowded field as the favorite to replace her. We already knew that Hamawy was a close associate of, and testified on the behalf of the 1993 World Trade Center bombing, the Blind Sheikh. That was troublesome, but not on it’s own disqualifying- despite the association, Hamawy was not charged with anything. Now we find out that he volunteered in Bosnia with an organization called “Benevolent Front,” which of course was closed because it was an Al-Qaeda front group. Hamawy is leading polls in NJ-12, has the most money, and has a pro-Palestinian group making a huge TV buy for him. He is also nowhere near 50% of the vote, but his lead is solid. East Brunswick Mayor of East Brunswick, Shanel Robinson of the Somerset County Board of Commissioners, Plainfield Mayor Adrian Mapp, Trenton area State Assemblywoman Verlina Reynolds-Jackson, and second time Congressional candidate Sue Altman are all in this race as well, allowing him to win with way less than 50%.

We saw this in Pennsylvania more than a bit recently. AOC/Hasan Piker endorsed, left-wing slogan generating machine Chris Rabb won his primary in PA-3 with 44.66%, while promising a bunch of things he’ll never even get close to delivering in Congress. Again, Sharif Street and Dr. Ala Stanford split 53.28% of the vote amongst them as the “normie” Dems. Here in PA-7, Bernie Sanders endorsed left winger and man who stiffed his mother-in-law out of $55k for over 20 years, Bob “Crooksy” Brooks won his four way primary with 41.01% of the vote, shackling Democrats with a deadbeat with two or three functioning brain cells as their candidate. Over and over again, we are picking problematic, dumb, scary candidates to run for office with a simple plurality of the vote in these insular, out of touch primaries. These people basically represent a fringe of the most partisan, most out of touch voters. They’re embarrassing.

Don’t get me wrong, probably the scariest nominee we have out of all of them, Mr. Nazi tattoo himself, Graham Platner, won his race by bankrupting his Chuck Schumer (retire) selected opponent. Yes, I know there are still other people on the ballot, but none are running serious campaigns. So now we have the guy who went on a Nazi conspiracy theorist podcast and called himself a long time fan. He was a Blackwater mercenary. He posted homophobia and racism for years on Reddit. He may have dated several women at once, and well, there are more rumors about what’s to come there. That’s fine though because his campaign pays his wife. No, really. He apparently defends urinating on dead bodies in war. The guy admits to public masturbation. Platner downplayed rape and blamed victims. Honestly, the problems with this alum of the elite Hotchkiss Prep School ($75k a year?) seriously outweigh his fake “working class background.” Some folks are even questioning if he’s fraudulently getting VA Benefits. The guy is problematic.

I’m beginning to think the only reason we avoided nominating raging anti-semite Maureen Galindo in TX-35 is that she had to actually get 50% of the vote. I guess we don’t need to get that Kames ICE Prison ready to be a concentration camp for “Zionists” after all. For what it’s worth though, she got over 40%

These people are all fucking embarrassments to humanity. I’m sorry, pardon the French, but these people shouldn’t walk your dog, let alone represent you anywhere as a leader. It’s fairly obvious that the consultant class down in the bubble that is the Beltway decided this was the year to flirt with weirdos and wackos, because they somehow think this will convince white guys to vote for them. Of course it’s going to fail, but this what happens when you let a bunch of rejected dorks try to figure out how to connect with “every man” types. The moral of the story is not to let Jeff Coote, Rebecca Katz, and Morris Katz be your strategists on reaching guys who drink beer and watch the Red Sox. But beyond that, it is very apparent that there are folks at the DCCC, DSCC, and DNC who are all co-signing this shit. They’re so out of touch that they think running Nazis, terrorists, deadbeats, and possibly even folks who want to have concentration camps will appeal to “normal” people. Perhaps our biggest concern should be the lack of intellectual ability in the operative class in 2026.

Ken Martin’s entire tenure at the DNC, and really the direction of the party since about 2015, has been a disaster. Much as the GOP of John McCain and Speaker John Boehner allowed the Teahadists into the ten in 2008 to 2014, these feeble and feckless leaders have allowed antisemites, terrorist adjacent, scumbags, and losers into the Democratic tent. It ended badly for the GOP and the country, and well, guess what will happen here?

Don’t think the Republicans aren’t literally worse, of course. Last night Texas Republicans nominated bible-thumping adulterer, likely bribe taker, and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton for the Senate. When they replaced Texas Congressman Tony Gonzalez, the GOP found Mein Kampf enthusiast Brandon Herrera. Thomas Massie did lose after spending the final weekend of his campaign with Holocaust denier Ryan Matta, but he lost to ultra-MAGA nutbag Ed Gallrein. The GOP is literally fighting a civil war over Candace Owens and Laura Loomer right now, so things aren’t well over there.

America is about to turn 250 years old. The people being chosen to lead us are increasingly moon howlers and embarrassments to humanity. The 2026 Election is literally shaping up as a race to the bottom, where we have to decide if disgraces on our “side” are better than “sheeple” on the other. It’s disgraceful and maybe the best sign that our republic needs a full makeover moving forward.

Democrats Need to Hope Platner Loses

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

Everything is a business decision, especially in politics. How much is a seat worth to your party? You really can’t win everywhere, because you lack the resources, so the question ultimately is what are your odds of winning, and what is the cost? Activists like to talk about competing everywhere, but that’s anti-reality.

Democrats are highly unlikely to win the Senate in 2026. Notice I did not say they won’t or can’t, I said unlikely. They need to flip four seats to the positive this year. They have varying degrees of difficult defenses to fight in Michigan, Georgia, New Hampshire, and Minnesota. Realistically they need to win all of those to maintain a shot at future majorities. They came into this cycle only realistically thinking they had a shot at North Carolina and Maine. Michigan has gone worse so far than they could have hoped, Georgia has gone better, and North Carolina could not be going better if the GOP conceded it. Maine, for all of the talk about it, is basically going exactly the same as it was going in 2020 at this point, when Gideon was beating Collins handily and was expected to flip the seat- only to lose badly. Gideon never trailed in that race and her lead looked a lot like Platner’s did in October of that year. So at no point will that race look safe.

So let’s assume for a second that we’re holding Georgia, New Hampshire, and Minnesota, flipping North Carolina, and Michigan may very well come down to who is our nominee. Maine remains solidly on the board either way, maybe even give Democrats slightly better than even money odds at it. We’d be at best +2 in the Senate, two seats short, and at worst sitting even. That’s not going to get us a majority. Almost all hopes of the Democrats flipping the Senate still will rest on three time Trump states voting Democratic. Sherrod Brown lost his seat in 2024 and would have to beat the appointed replacement for J.D. Vance, which is very possible, but very difficult. Mary Peltola, who has won Alaska before, would have to defeat a Republican incumbent where the voters there know that voting for her is giving Democrats a potential majority. There are hopes for the open Iowa seat, but we do have a somewhat bruising primary there to even get the shot to convince Iowa voters to pull the plug on Trump in the Senate after giving him three large victories, and a decade of Democrats losing literally every Governor and Senate race there. And of course, there’s Texas. I think Talarico is probably a pretty good candidate, but Texas is still Texas, and we don’t know yet how much ill will there is towards him from Black voters in the state from the Jasmine Crockett primary. Could each of these races flip individually? Yes, it’s possible. Could all four of them flip together? The odds drop a lot, but it is *possible*. Can Democrats win probable difficult defenses in Georgia, New Hampshire, and Michigan, flip both of North Carolina and Maine, *AND* win at least two of Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, and Texas? I’m going to tell you, for those of you who like to gamble on sports, you would be getting a big plus money line on this parlay. Of the nine states I just named, Harris won two of them. Do you think the Democratic Party is that much stronger than it was in 2024? You’re being wishful. In 2018, the Democrats won 40 seats in the House in a landslide win, but *lost* seats in the Senate that were being fought on red turf. If you’re saying you think Democrats win the Senate, you’re basically saying Democrats are considerably stronger than they were in 2018. I know you want to think there is a mass exodus of MAGA voters from supporting the GOP right now, but you’re being very hopeful, some might even say delusional. I guess you can hope that their turnout drops wildly enough to put some of these seats in play and maybe we pull the inside straight with exactly a four seat flip. I’m just saying evidence suggests you probably won’t get it.

So then this begs a pretty simple question, one that I’d suggest has a complex answer. Senate Democrats will have to decide at some point if Graham Platner is worth the trouble to elect in Maine. The DSCC will make the decision to fund him, I will spare you that question for now. They have to if they really want to win the Senate, and his polling probably will never be bad, even if it’s just another Gideon situation. I say probably because we really have no idea what is still out there on this guy. I mean in the past week or so we found out he likes masturbating in public places, he said a Marine who received a Purple Heart should have died, and we’re hearing rumblings of Republicans looking into his income, since he receives disability benefits for his PTSD. I mean, even if you want to assume that the general electorate full of less partisan people than the Democratic Primary are going to forgive the Nazi tattoo, comments about urinating on dead bodies, and being a mercenary, what else is out there, how much proverbial straw will it take to break the camel’s back, and how much money will they pour into taking this guy out? It’s going to take a herculean effort to make sure this guy survives when the Fall comes. That’s assuming we even can, especially as Republicans also pour money into a likely flip RED in ME-2. Is it doable? There’s definitely a chance. Easy? Absolutely not.

So alright, I’ll ask the question again- is it worth it? Best case, the party spends an ungodly amount of cash to get a guy across the line who has a Nazi tattoo, thinks Black people don’t tip, and is a treasure chest of red flags that our core voters typically don’t like. He’ll arrive in Washington and immediately be the new AOC- attacked with every negative term conservatives know, in this case focusing on Nazi, weirdo, and Socialist. He attacks the Democratic Party any chance he gets, so he’ll hurt other candidates and turn off voters in other races we need to win. In a word, the guy is a nuisance. Of course they’re going to fund him and try to win, because that’s the only purpose for the DSCC to exist. Is it worth it though, really? Congressman Jake Auchincloss is right in saying it’s not, and calling this Nazi unacceptable. Him winning isn’t even worth the headaches as is, Democrats flocking to defend this scumbag are building the next round of GOP ammo for them to use against us.

Hard “no thanks” from me.

MLB Power Rankings 5/25

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

Well, here we finally are. My first power rankings of the MLB Season come about 1/3 of the way through the seasons (it’s exactly 1/3 for my Phillies). I’ll start by just diving into the rankings, then we’ll talk about it after.

  1. Atlanta Braves
  2. Tampa Bay Rays
  3. Los Angeles Dodgers
  4. Milwaukee Brewers
  5. Cleveland Guardians
  6. San Diego Padres
  7. New York Yankees
  8. Arizona Diamondbacks
  9. St. Louis Cardinals
  10. Chicago Cubs
  11. Cincinnati Reds
  12. Sacramento Athletics
  13. Philadelphia Phillies
  14. Chicago White Sox
  15. Pittsburgh Pirates
  16. Washington Nationals
  17. Toronto Blue Jays
  18. Miami Marlins
  19. Seattle Mariners
  20. Minnesota Twins
  21. Baltimore Orioles
  22. Boston Red Sox
  23. Texas Rangers
  24. Houston Astros
  25. New York Mets
  26. San Francisco Giants
  27. Kansas City Royals
  28. Detroit Tigers
  29. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
  30. Colorado Rockies

There’s a lot of surprises here, a lot of teams ranked in places I would not have expected them to be. Atlanta and the Dodgers aren’t shocking, although Atlanta not only survived early pitching injuries, but thrived through them. Tampa? Shocking. We all sat here thinking Milwaukee and Cleveland might drop back a bit, but they have not. San Diego and the Yankees are right in the discussion to win it all, no shock there. Same with the Cubs. Arizona might be a slight surprise, but not astounding. St. Louis? Shock.

It’s the next ten that are filled with surprises. Philadelphia, Toronto, and Seattle all have higher expectations than this. None have hit like last year. They can all pitch though, so don’t hit the panic button yet. Teams like the White Sox and Nationals have probably played a bit over their heads so far, but they probably don’t have the pitching to stay in the race. They will need to convince their front offices to go get them help.

And then there are teams in serious trouble already. Boston is disappointing. The Mets and Giants are cataclysmic. Kansas City may have to give up on this group. Detroit? Everything is going wrong. And of course you have the Angels and Rockies, who are both not going anywhere at all- like not into a rebuild, not into trying to win, they’re literally just existing.

Since we’re at the 1/3 mark, I’ll add here that right now I’d give the MVP’s to Drake Baldwin and Ben Rice, neither of whom will win. I’d give the Cy Youngs to Cristopher Sanchez and Cam Schlittler, of which I’d say Sanchez is more likely but both are a little bit of a surprise. I’d give the Rookie of the Year awards to Munetaka Murakami (who is going to get a lot of folks fired) and Sal Stewart, both guys that seem capable of keeping this pace. I’d give Manager of the Year to Walt Weiss and Kevin Cash, and neither would be remotely close.

Lots of baseball ahead. We’ll see where we are in the next rankings.

How PA-7’s Primary was Like 2018’s, and How it Wasn’t.

/ Rich Wilkins / 2 Comments

Eight years ago I had a kind of front row seat to the spectacle that was the PA-7 Primary. This time, to the extent it matters, I was mostly watching from backstage. Even so, I can’t help but notice a lot of things that were the same then as now, and a few things that are not. Now the big question is if they’ll even matter.

So I had coffee on Friday with one of the candidates and I couldn’t help but eventually say to her that the irony was not lost on me that in another cycle the DCCC would probably have moved mountains to have a candidate like her, and this time they and really the entire establishment of the party really did their best to leave her behind. While the rejection of a woman by a party where the majority of our primary voters are women is noteworthy, it’s important to understand that this is actually more of a similarity than a difference- the party picked a person and then spent like crazy to get them. 2018 was the year of the woman, and outside groups came in and spent like drunks in the closing weeks of that primary to get Susan Wild across the line and *not* have John Morganelli get nominated. The DCCC and related Democratic groups have decided they want to run alleged blue collar “everyman” types in 2026, and they spent like crazy to make sure they got Bob Brooks. They spent so much for Bob that they spent DCCC dollars earmarked for the general election to push the guy across the line. This was a trend that played out to varying degrees in PA-1 and PA-10 as well, and PA-8 had no race. They are going to spend to any number they have to in order to get the narrative they want. You really can’t avoid it. And by the way, the NRCC does the same thing. Ryan Mackenzie was basically a welfare candidate in the 2024 primary, but outside PACs spent like crazy to get him across. It will be fascinating to see what happens over this next week in neighboring NJ-7, where backers of Tina Shah have come in and gone dead negative on Rebecca Bennett lately. We’ll find out if the DCCC really wants her or not.

Another thing that has become apparent- getting elected to some county office in Northampton County is not a route to the Congressional seat. Lamont McClure ran in second place in Northampton and Carbon Counties, respectable for a candidate that got outspent and really had to run against the popular Governor from his own party. He got dead last in Lehigh County, and by a lot. You know what that reminded me of? John Morganelli. Morganelli held on to win Northampton in 2018, but got absolutely left in the dust in Lehigh. Also, both hit a relatively low wall in fundraising pretty quickly and were majorly outspent. In both cases a person who was not an elected, in fact two other people, but was relatively involved in party politics, got major backing from outside of the district, and their fundraising (and outside spending) took off. Wild did not nearly have the thumb on the scale for her that Brooks needed, but her outside supporters spent everyone else into the ground in that race. The white elected guy from Northampton did not have a chance either time. There is an interesting dynamic here, between a major swing county that decides national elections and the national Democratic Party- the folks in DC do not want the candidates that win general elections here. Now this is not as cut and dry as that last sentence sounds, because there are other factors in this district (like turning out Lehigh County), wanting a candidate that is more flexible to running the kind of campaign they want to run, and the fact that many, many more people vote in a federal primary than a municipal one, but it still comes out to the same. If you zoom out to the national level, one could argue this is a national tension for the Democratic Party, as swing districts are much more rebellious against the messages our party wants to run on. One could also look at the numbers though and remark that Democrats actually have performed *better* in swing districts and swing states than they have in solidly Blue or Red areas in 2022 and 2024. Nevertheless, you can see the tensions.

Now this leads me to a couple of other observations that are fairly obvious coming out of this- playing the local politics game to run for Congress here is pointless. There’s not enough money here to “win” the in district political endorsements and turn that into a winning campaign. They can come in and swamp you. Also, and I don’t think you can call this an accident anymore, the national folks come in here and build large fields, often times large and divisive fields, in part because it’s much easier to shape the race to get the result you want in a field of four or more than it would be in a one on one primary. The DCCC met and talked to all four of the candidates before they entered the race, discouraged none of them, and yet ultimately leaned as heavily on the district as possible to get the candidate of their choice, both times. Neither Wild in 2018 or Brooks in 2026 were anywhere remotely near an actual 50%+1 majority in their victories, and they didn’t need to because they had enough other candidates in the field that would take a legitimate amount of votes to know that they probably could win if they got to 30%. It’s divide and conquer politics at it’s finest.

Now the obvious differences are really two things. First off, this time the party decided to embrace a Bernie Sanders backed populist, something they didn’t do in 2018. Boy, it does seem like they never pick the non-white candidates here, maybe I’m the only one seeing that. The national party has decided 2026 is the year they’re going to try Bernie’s way apparently, as we’re seeing in places like Maine as well, and I think it’ll burn them more than they think, but there’s still a chance that sticks for a while because I fully expect them to take the House. This is a wholesale directional change though, and I think a lot of Democrats who were good Obama-Clinton-Biden-Harris voters are going to need to come to grips with this- white populism is probably going to be the dominant ideology in our party too after the recent Supreme Court decision gutting the VRA and basically killing off “Majority-Minority” districts in our politics. Democrats are probably going to win the House with some folks we would not have liked in 2018 or 2022, and at the same time the CBC is going to take a dramatic hit in membership across the South. It’s a different party, and it’s probably going to get more different. I don’t think we’ve seen even the tip of the iceberg of the changes this is going to bring yet, and I’m just waiting for the Republicans to get our state legislative map into federal courts and find a friendly judge. I hope I’m wrong, but I fear I’m not.

And of course, the bigger, and somewhat related thing here- Bob Brooks is not Susan Wild. Wild came out of the 2018 primary with less help from major party figures (her big supporters were EMILY’s List, NextGen, and Planned Parenthood) and her perceived negative by some was that she would be too left for the district. That ended up not being true, at least until the new map gave her Carbon County and took away the good Democratic parts of Monroe. She had nothing personally offensive about her as a person, she was a candidate standing on the set of positions she ran on. Brooks is quite different than that. Yes, I think he will be attacked as a leftist, a “union thug,” and whatever other partisan arguments the NRCC will make, some of them at least partially true (he was backed by Sanders, Ro Khanna, Ruben Gallego, and other troublesome leftists), and some are just generic anti-Democratic talking points. He and Wild do have that stuff sort of in common. Wild didn’t have the personal baggage of Brooks though. Democratic primary voters at least partially (I mean, 59% voted against him) papered over his personal issues. His campaign is going to take the bet that they’ll downplay him stiffing his mother-in-law, and frustrations with Trump will win the day over Mackenzie. That’s a plausible theory that may happen, Trump is very unpopular right now. It also might not happen. These are not a partisan Democratic audience like the die-hards voting in our primaries. As things like this trickle out, it’s more likely general election voters will at least take a look at them. Bob’s strength, which is that he’s basically a generic 2026 Democratic nominee with no serious individualized policy positions, is also his negative- let’s face it, the party won him that primary, it was more of a victory for Josh Shapiro than Bob individually. There’s no reservoir of love for him personally, as is true of the overwhelming majority of candidates in 2026. These voters aren’t going to believe him because he’s on their team. They’ll either decide stopping Trump is their first priority, or they’ll decide Bob is too much of a scumbag to stomach. I can honestly say both things are true, so we’ll see which plays out.

Now with the benefit of hindsight I think you can look back and see the obvious trend lines here. Sometimes history repeats itself. Other times you nominate someone who blows up in your face. I know which deserves to happen here, but it’s harder to say which will. I guess we’ll know six months from now.

So Now What?

/ Rich Wilkins / 3 Comments

Well, it’s over. Really over. After more than a year, the Democratic primary for the 7th Congressional District of Pennsylvania is over. Bob “Crooksy” Brooks won. He got 41.74% of the vote, winning every county. As a matter of fact, he won by 20 points. In the end, his vast list of national supporters won the day. The DCCC was so hellbent on nominating him that they reportedly moved several hundred thousand dollars (from what I was told, money earmarked for his buy-in to the Democratic Party’s coordinated campaign) into the race late. My guess is that there was pressure put on them to do so by someone, but we’ll never hear who that was. Since he won, it really doesn’t matter much.

Ryan Mackenzie’s campaign wasted no time pouncing. From Bernie’s blog:

Allentown, PA — The Mackenzie for Congress campaign issued the following statement in response to Democrats nominating Bob Brooks in PA-07.

“Tonight, after spending millions of dollars in dark money on his behalf, the Democratic establishment got their hand-picked candidate: con-man and fraudster Bob Brooks. These groups steamrolled local Democrats and hijacked the democratic process in order to nominate a corrupt political insider, a wealthy lobbyist with a vast stock portfolio, and someone who has a record of stealing from his own family. The establishment Democrat machine has done this for one reason: they know that Bob Brooks will follow orders from his political bosses, just like he did as a union boss. The people of the Lehigh Valley and the Poconos will reject this dumpster fire of a candidate,” said Mackenzie for Congress spokesman Arnaud Armstrong. 

“As a result of Brooks’ history of scams and schemes that we heard about throughout the primary, the Mackenzie for Congress campaign is also announcing the launch of the Bob Brooks Hotline. Residents of the community who have been ripped off or targeted by conman and fraudster Bob Brooks – or have other information about his checkered past – can report their experiences by calling (484) 272-4215.”

Check the Facts:

Ok, so that should set the table for what kind of campaign this will be. Once again the Lehigh Valley will be one of the biggest battlegrounds in America. And this campaign will be nasty. Very nasty. On the one hand you have a Trump acolyte who has voted loyally for MAGA values. On the other hand, you have a man that lacks any values or soul. It’s enough to make you want to not vote.

I spent close to a quarter century doing campaigns, and at any point in there I would tell you that this is too important to over think. If you want Trump to lose power, you should vote against his party. Trump is absolutely loathsome enough to feel that way. Mackenzie was infamously a yes vote for the “Big, Beautiful Bill” that cut Medicaid to the bone, cut funds to fight climate change, and gutted the Affordable Care Act, amongst it’s many horrible acts. That is a worthy reason to vote Ryan Mackenzie out.

On the other hand, as our progressive friends reminded us in 2016 and 2024, you have to give people something to vote for. I mean, do we want to kick out one guy we don’t like to elect a hypocrite? I’ve spent months telling you what a bad guy Bob Brooks is. In good conscience, I can’t tell you now to just vote for him anyway. I think the guy is a crook. I didn’t give a damn when Pete Buttigieg or Josh Shapiro said otherwise. But I suppose most folks just figure I’ll support my party, right? I mean shit, I worked for Obama, Clinton, and Biden, how can I not want Trump to lose Congress? Surely whatever “shared” values I have with the guy who stiffed his mother-in-law, the awful guy I first remember as a bartender, must outweigh the personal, right?

At a different time in life, yes. This version of the Democratic Party? The Graham Platner/Bob Brooks version of the party? I have to admit, I have nothing here. I signed up for the party of Bill Clinton and John Kerry, not this. I will absolutely be voting Democratic for other offices this Fall, but this one? I know a lot about Ryan Mackenzie, and I’m not really excited about him continuing in his current job. Bob is a dirtbag though. He can say “heck yeah” all he wants and pretend he’s some tough guy biker, but in the end he’s a guy who took from his own family. He’s not an improvement on really much of anyone. As the party accepts more and more problematic candidates, I’m not sure I care enough to care. The guy is a racist, let’s face it, you can’t find a famous black guy he likes (hello Barack Obama and Colin Kaepernick). I want no part in electing this guy. If that costs us the House, maybe the Democratic Party should be better. I’ve said for a long time that I’m not a “vote blue no matter who” type. Well, that’s going to be put to the test here. I broke down and voted for Fetterman at the 11th hour in 2022. I’ve regretted it ever since.

I was asked earlier today if I planned to take all of the stuff down that I wrote about Crooksy. The answer is no. I had several people reach out to me today to say they’ve learned a good deal from this site, and that’s worth more to me than getting a Christmas card from some elected official. I’m not going to endorse Mackenzie right now, I think his record is reprehensible. But I’m also not going to tell you to fall in line and vote for Deadbeat Bob. There’ll be a campaign, and we’ll see what happens. For now, my plan is to either leave it blank or write in someone else. I have to admit, I’m only kind of judging folks who reach a different conclusion.

Predictions for Tonight

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

Ok, I’ll weigh in on what I expect tonight.

PA HOUSE 22 Democrats- I was pretty certain CeCe Gerlach was going to win this one most of the way. She’s got plenty of flaws, but she outworks her opponents and is versed on the issues she wants to address. Two problems with my theory. First, the majority of these voters probably weren’t her voters for Mayor, the only other time she’s been in a one on one race. So did she convert them? Two, she got outspent pretty decisively with outside money is my guess. So, do I think she wins tonight? Yes, I do, but much closer. Either way, I think she secures the nomination. I’m thinking under 55-45.

PA HOUSE 117 Republicans- Far right Republican Jamie Walsh of Luzerne County is defending against former United Way CEO Bill Jones in a race that has largely become about data centers, with Walsh opposing them mostly outright and Jones taking a middle ground position. I think Walsh hit the sweet spot with his very red district. He’s still far, far right, but opposes the thing the people are up in arms about. I bet he wins.

PA HOUSE 120 Democrats- Joanna Bryn Smith will beat out Fern Leard by a bit over 10%. House Leadership weighed in heavily here and it will make the difference. Say 57-43.

PA HOUSE 121 Democrats- The race to replace Eddie Day Pashinski in Wilkes-Barre was a little lower key than I expected. I think Council President Jessica McClay wins her race over Michael Stadulis. She is well known in Wilkes-Barre, and while turnout always sucks there, it’ll be the bulk of this primary electorate. I’m saying 60-40.

PA HOUSE 187 Democrats- I don’t know the first thing about Geoffrey Whitcomb or Rachel Cuevas. They could be the best candidates we have or the worst ones, and I’d know little to tell you either way. I doubt there was a ton of spending on this race, as neither probably raised much or got a lot of outside help. So, what I’ll guess is Cuevas wins, as Democratic voters tend to like voting for women when not given much else to work with. I’ll guess 60-40.

PA SENATE 16 Democrats- I don’t know what I hope for this race, but I think Mark Pinsley beats Bradley Merkl-Gump 56-44. Lehigh County will carry the lion’s share of the votes, and Mark will win them despite all the endorsements for Merkl-Gump. The blatant anti-semitism thrown into this race late in the game is absolutely insane and disappointing, but I have a feeling it won’t backfire on Pinsley, who both had no part in it and is actually Jewish. We live in unwell times.

PA SENATE 18 Democrats- I think Lisa Boscola will get about 95% or more of the vote tonight, with Taiba Sultana getting 89 votes. Yes, 89 votes, not 8.9%. The rest will be undervotes and people voting for Mickey Mouse and other fictional candidates. The fun in this race is whether Sultana gets more write-ins than a.) she needed signatures to make the ballot and b.) than there are write-ins for fictional characters like Harambe, Lisa Ann, Barack Obama, and ET.

PA SENATE 20 Republicans- Ok, here comes my first earthquake of the night. I think Lisa Baker will lose her seat after a couple decades tonight because “skill games” operators are funding Tyler Meyers, and he is hitting her on flashpoint issues in their primary. He left the Army for refusing to take the Covid vaccine, he claims she supports transgender people, and he’s pro-life. He also has attacked her on data centers, and I believe that is the secret sauce in red areas. Meyers will get 52-55% tonight.

PA SENATE 22 Democrats- Marty Flynn will get at least 65% of the vote tonight and defeat Jeffrey Lake. In fact, I’m calling it 70-30. He’s better known and frankly hasn’t done anything to disappoint his voters. This won’t be close.

1st CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT Democrats- Bob Harvie has all the endorsements and is an incumbent commissioner in Bucks County. Lucia Simonelli is a former Senate advisor on science issues running to his left. This will not be remotely competitive tonight. I’m saying 70-30.

3rd CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT Democrats- I know that literally all of you are only coming here to read about two races, so I purposely made you read through all of those for my own amusement. Ok, so while a lot of ink has been spilled over the impact of national endorsements, whether the Governor put his thumb on the scale or not, or how much was spent, I’m going to tell you something- Philadelphia is the smallest major city in the world. Elections are decided block by block in a city of 1.6 million people, often times by conversations had from neighbor to neighbor. Yes, there is a ward system in Philadelphia, and yes the ward leaders in West and North Philadelphia are some of the strongest organizers in the country, but a lot of the work here is literally done after church around a table with neighbors talking coffee. Dr. Ala Stanford is super impressive and I think she got off to a fast start in this race. The late decision to pull out of appearances at the last minute didn’t go unnoticed though. Chris Rabb grabbed lots of major endorsements, including from people like AOC. I think this was a mistake by him. He could have ran to Sharif Street’s left and maybe found converts who agreed. I don’t think nationalizing the race was a smart strategy. As for Street, the State Senator is from maybe the best known political family in Philadelphia- Dad was Mayor, Uncle was State Senator. Sharif is quite different from his elders, but his name does carry positively in the 3rd District. In the end, I think all the noise and chatter from people who can’t find their way down Lancaster Avenue (which is really quite easy) helped Street. The folks “know” him in the district, and I think that carries the night.

7th CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT Democrats- Ok, so the one you’ve all been waiting for. It’s been a long, strange journey. The DCCC, the Governor, Allentown’s electeds, and even Bernie Sanders have put their thumb on the scale here for Bob Brooks. Bob won the money race, especially the dark money race, by a lot. There are going to be a lot of hurt feelings about this race tomorrow, and I more than suspect that some people are going to feel some of them at me. Oh well, I knew what I was doing. Ryan Crosswell switched parties, moved into a district he had no ties in, and ran a race for Congress. He has serious liabilities as a Democrat, and yet I think he probably did better with folks who met him than most others expected. He won’t get my vote, but hats off to him for the effort I guess. I think he’ll finish third tonight, but a competitive third. Carol Obando-Derstine is a good Democrat with deep ties to this district, and the impressive endorsement of our former Congresswoman. I had a candidate picked, and they never lost my support, but Carol impressed me personally and is more than worthy of your vote today, if you did that. I think she’s going to finish fourth though. I’m voting for Lamont McClure. I think he was a very good County Executive in Northampton County and has the right political temperament to represent the Lehigh Valley in Congress. Regardless of who funded the late advertisements on his behalf (the truth, you’ll find to be stranger than the BS you’ve been told), very clearly McClure had the late momentum, and he was the original front-runner if for no other reason than name recognition. The question is, was that enough to pull him over the top? The feeling I get is yes. It feels like the undecided “normie” Democrats came home. However, I asked myself something over and over the last few days- what would people with a lot less information than you think and do? My belief is 30-35k ballots were cast before today in this race. The first candidate who was on TV here significantly (albeit mostly from dark money) was Bob Brooks. He told the voters their Governor and Bernie Sanders want him. My guess is that it won’t win him Northampton County, but he will pick up the overwhelming bulk of the votes that don’t go to McClure there and put him in second. If this race follows the pattern of 2018’s primary, Crosswell and Obando-Derstine will both do significantly better in Lehigh County than they do in Northampton County or overall, and might even be the top candidates over there (depending on how they actually do). So the question becomes, who do I think finished higher between Brooks and McClure in Lehigh County and Carbon County, first off, and second off, is that margin larger than McClure’s in Northampton? My thinking is that McClure’s spending came in the last two to three weeks, and Brooks was going for about six weeks. I think Brooks will over perform in the mail in all three counties, and end up with a slight edge. I’m saying Brooks between 30 and 33, McClure between 27 and 30, Crosswell between 20 and 25, and Carol at 15 to 20. What does that say about the race? Well, if I’m right, it means it took them everything they had to push this pile of waste across the line, but they did do it. It also means they may have failed with one less candidate because in fact Bernie and Shapiro don’t have the coattails they think. One thing I’d like to know after this- why the Brooks backers used Bernie in ads over Buttigieg? Pete is probably more universally liked, so that surprises me. I guess we’ll find out soon.

10th CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT Democrats- Literally everyone backed Janelle Stelson. She’ll win 70-30 over Dauphin County Commissioner Justin Douglas. We’ll find out how smart that was in just under six months.

Ok, if you got through all of that, good. I’d give you Democratic State Committee predictions if I thought that would make any sense, but it doesn’t. Oh well, I will anyway. Basically, my general idea here is that in Northampton County it’s better to have Bethlehem (city or township) after your name than not. So I’m betting the incumbent men win because they’re Bethlehem, and the women are unopposed. In Lehigh County I have no clue how you’d break this up. In general I think the incumbents will win. I’d say Allentown is a factor, but turnout is usually anemic. Make of that what you will.

Let’s see how wrong I am in the next few hours.

My Ballot Today

/ Rich Wilkins / 1 Comment

Well, it’s primary Election Day in Pennsylvania. There is only one race I can vote in with more than one person actually on the ballot, not counting party leader elections. For the first time since 2002 I am not seeking (either on the ballot or by write-in) a seat on either the county or state committee, and I’m quite happy about that. While I will remain in the Democratic Party as an active primary voter, committee people are bound by rule to support all Democratic nominees, and there are simply an increasing number of candidates that regardless of how bad their Republican opponent is, I cannot vote for. Here in the Lehigh Valley, I will not be casting a vote for Bob Brooks in the Fall, regardless of the results tonight. I would not support Graham Platner or Abdul Al-Sayed if I lived in their states. I’m not sure I could stomach NJ-12 candidate Adam Hamawy’s relationship to the “Blind Sheikh” who was convicted of the first World Trade Center bombing, though the rest of his story is pretty good. I’d really struggle to support a lot of what the party is starting to accept, and that’s even while saying I wouldn’t vote for any Republican in 2026 because of Trump, and I’d be fine with even some of the more progressive challengers out there (James Talarico, for instance). I’m happy to be free of having to bullshit. I’m also not working for any candidates today, only for independent expenditures this year. So all I have to do is vote today.

So the biggest news from my ballot is who I’m leaving off, not who I’m for. So let’s dig into it.

I’m leaving Governor blank. I’m going to vote for Josh Shapiro in the Fall, he’s a smart guy and quite competent, and his opponent Stacy Garrity is nuts. His term as Governor is largely a continuation of Tom Wolf’s policies, which is just fine for me. What were his two big pushes though as Governor? An attempt at school vouchers and data centers? None of that is enough to make me want to vote against him in November, as that would be harmful to many people in this state if it worked out. But tomorrow both the Governor and Lt. Governor are running unopposed. Given the Governor’s decision to not only endorse Bob “Crooksy” Brooks, but then to appear with him, I’ll decline today to vote for him. I’ll remember in 2028 too. I will vote for Austin Davis for Lt. Governor though, despite his mostly quiet endorsement in the race. Austin is the future of the party right now, really the only statewide Democratic elected that I suspect we’ll see running for another Pennsylvania office soon. I hope the future is better than the present.

As I said before, I’ll be voting for Lamont McClure. He’s got the right government experience to combat the Trump/Mackenzie cuts to essential services (like Medicaid) and he knows how to win here. The assertion of the receptionist in DC and other backers of Crooksy that McClure is the weakest Democratic candidate to beat Mackenzie is silly. We know general election voters like him, they’ve voted for him. This idea that we should care who raised the most money is completely stupid. Any of the four candidates will raise hundreds of thousands of dollars by July 1st if nominated. Give me the guy who has won elections over the deadbeat.

I’ll be voting for Lisa Boscola. No, I’m not writing in Taiba Sultana. I doubt many people will be. This campaign is nonsense, and we should treat it as such.

I’ll be voting for Jeff Warren. Jeff is running for PA-137 in the House and I think he’ll do a good job.

I’m going to decline to endorse in the state committee races. I have a lot of friends running. I wish them all well.

That’s my ballot. I doubt it shocks anyone. Good luck to almost all today, and everyone go vote.

Profiles in Courage, Congressional Primary Edition

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

Chris Rabb is in Philly running for the 3rd Congressional District. He is neither the city Democratic Committee’s candidate of choice or Congressman Dwight Evans’. He has campaign with potential 2028 rivals of Governor Shapiro’s and vocal critics of the Governor. For that matter, he has been fairly outspoken about the differences between himself and the Governor. Governor Josh Shapiro has appeared in back rooms to talk to the building trades and others about the threat that Rabb posts for him and the party. Josh Shapiro has refused to pick a horse though and endorse a candidate against Rabb in that primary.

Most of his allies are with Sharif Street in that race, but his own frosty relationship with Street makes him unable to go along. You see, he didn’t want Street to be the State Democratic Party Chairman back in 2022, and he vocally said so, so now he’ll never forgive that. Dwight Evans, the outgoing Congressman, has been a great ally of Shapiro’s. He supports Dr. Ala Stanford. Apparently she isn’t what the Governor is looking for. So instead of picking one, the Governor is giving a pass to a straight out critic of his.

Meanwhile the Governor took the time on the Sunday before the election to come to Allentown, and after cancelling his public event for worries about something, had a private event with Bob Brooks. You know, a candidate who has embarrassed him during this race. This is a man of such low character that we should all be running away from him. This is the guy the Governor wants to use his political capital on the behalf of. A complete deadbeat.

You know what, I’m totally bought in for 2028. Totally and completely.

Crooksy Spent Sunday with the Harrisburg Establishment, McClure Spent it with the People

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1LTXHSiwNU

You tell me who represents us? A Governor who cancelled his public appearance, probably out of fear of being protested? Or the good folks of Second Baptist Church in Bethlehem? Power brokers doing their self interest, or the base voters of our party? Reject Bob Brooks on Tuesday. Vote for the people.

ADDITION- This came to me late, but is worth noting- Bob “Crooksy” Brooks requested a 90 day extension on his financial report that was due on Friday, in an effort to make sure no one knows the shady Harrisburg and Washington powerbrokers who are trying to buy him a seat in Congress. Not only does he duck public events and live off of dark money, Crooksy hides who his masters are from the public.