The Phillies are Going to be Fine

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

When the confetti stops falling on Sunday night sports fans everywhere will turn their attention to Florida and Arizona (as well as the ongoing NBA and NHL seasons and Daytona), and the beginning of the long baseball season ahead. The “hot stove” offseason will have basically run it’s course, and now we’ll have to see how teams actually do on the field. Rarely is there a direct correlation between who wins the offseason and who wins the season, though it was fun. In truth, only a small few free agents have the ability to take a mediocre team and make them good on their own, or a good team and make them great. So the real question is, what has actually changed?

If you read the chronically online portion of the Phillies fan base’s posts, you would think the Phillies were an 83 win team that missed the playoffs last year. They certainly were not that. They were a 96 win team that was basically *three or four plays* from beating the best team in baseball in a playoff series last year. Sure, they lost Ranger Suarez, and that will hurt, but besides that, they have not lost any major difference maker from that team who they did not upgrade on in the off-season. The Phillies clearly went into the off-season with a couple of goals, and did most of them. They kept as much of their core together as they could, re-signing Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto. They wanted to upgrade their bullpen, something they believe they have done by adding Brad Keller and having Jhoan Duran and Jose Alvarado for the full 2026 season, as well as hoping for sleeper big seasons from Orion Kerkering (who despite the throwing error in game four of the NLDS, seemed to be throwing the ball better than anyone in that bullpen in the playoffs) and Rule 5 pick Zach McCambley. They also wanted to get Justin Crawford and Andrew Painter clear paths to help this Phillies team this season, something both will have a shot to do as the season goes on, as might Aidan Miller. They checked off all of those boxes. As for external upgrades, something that some fans are screaming about, the Phillies only seriously pursued one, a 27 year old right-handed bat who they offered the top market value for, before a team came in and offered 150% of their deal in average annual value. That gap is simply not something you match. On the whole though, the Phillies very clearly did the three things they felt were necessary to stay as a 90 plus win, playoff team.

I suppose it is too strong to say people screaming that this team is regressing are wrong, but there isn’t a lot of evidence for what they’re saying. Unless you think the aggregate output of Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, and Kyle Schwarber is going to fall off of a cliff, the lineup isn’t going to be a lot worse, and that’s even more true if you believe in Crawford as much as most of us who watched a lot of him in his time in Reading and Allentown do. Suarez hurts, there is no doubt about that, but Painter has been a super prospect for quite a few years now, and is only really being asked to be a fourth or fifth starter to start the season, not to mention the track record is decent for pitchers having big bounce back seasons in their second season back from Tommy John. You’re going to get slightly more Zack Wheeler than last season if he actually comes back in May and is healthy, so unless you think he’ll never be the same, the pitching staff could possibly even improve- and I haven’t even factored in that almost anything Aaron Nola does would be better than what he did in 2025, and possibly by a significant margin. Throw in a very, very good bullpen on paper and I don’t see why people are so down on this team. There’s no real reason to be.

There are two factors that can change their result from a third straight division title and possible postseason contender to a disappointment. The Mets did not improve as much as some people are acting (they lost their one big time power bat and an elite closer), but the Mets probably come about even on talent with last year’s group, and they frankly should have been much better then, as should have the Braves- a roster that has wildly disappointed two straight years and should be elite if they are healthy and click. That may or may not all happen though, and even if both of those teams are very good this year, the odds that there are four NL teams better than the Phillies for the four spots they could possible win (you can’t win the other two divisions) are slim. The thing that could bring down the Phillies is not something you can ever predict exactly- health. Major injuries, particularly to the big difference makers on this roster, could bring them down. That can happen to any team in the league though, the Dodgers included. Nothing in Schwarber, Turner, Sanchez, Luzardo, Duran, Alvarado, Keller, or Kerkering’s seasons last year suggest that they are at health risk or in some kind of decline right now. I’m slightly worried about Wheeler because his injury was serious, but all signs are that he’s progressing well. I’m slightly worried about Harper because he’s been on the IL every season since his NL MVP season in 2021, but he’s also still very productive when playing and frankly we just need him to be that in October. My big worries, if I have any, are really J.T. Realmuto and Aaron Nola. Realmuto was still very good defensively last year, but I’d love to get just a bit more from his bat (he is a catcher, so he doesn’t have to be incredible). Nola has five years left on his deal, and I’d at least like a couple of them to look like his top ten Cy Young finishes. If those two are even just better than last year, the Phillies could be really outstanding.

The Phillies chose to bet a lot on their young guys for this season, and I have always liked that idea. If Crawford and Painter are what we have been lead to hope, and Otto Kemp does well with increased playing time, I can be very excited about this team. I think a lot of fans and Philadelphia-based media are looking for a reason to be worried about this team, knit-picking about the team not going after aging, frankly only modest impact free agents that probably wouldn’t have wildly changed the odds that this team is good. That’s silly and really won’t matter later. Look, I get that Adolis Garcia doesn’t excite some people, but it would be hard for him to actually be worse than Castellanos was in reality last year. You don’t love Alec Bohm? Fine, but don’t act like he’s a plague on the lineup, or whether he hits fourth or sixth is the difference between them winning 96 again or winning 77. These are small matters. The core of the team is the core. How they perform is basically everything.

I’m bullish. Very, very bullish.

Who Will Replace Governor Sherrill in Congress?

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

It’s primary day in NJ-11. Yeah, I know, it’s a Thursday in February and doesn’t feel like voting time, especially in New Jersey (who has their primary in June), but you will vote and you will like it if you live in the district formerly represented by Governor Mikie Sherrill. If you’re a Republican, you only have one option, so you get to live out your fetish of living in Russia today. If you’re a Democrat, you literally have 11 actual choices and two names they couldn’t get off the ballot in time. Of course, this is all for a Special Election for the rest of this year, and in June you get to do it again in the real primary, but we’ll see if all of these names actually make it to June.

There are several candidates who are a bit more prominent in this field, but for fairness purposes I’ll start out by giving you the full field first. From The New Jersey Globe:

Eleven Democrats are running in next week’s primary to succeed Sherrill, who resigned from the House in November following her election as New Jersey’s 57th governor: Passaic County Commissioner John Bartlett; U.S. Army veteran Zach Beecher; lawyer and Trump impersonator J-L Cauvin; former Obama White House aide Cammie Croft; Essex County Commissioner Brendan Gill; Morris Township Committeeman Jeff Grayzel; former Rep. Tom Malinowski; former Bernie Sanders for President political director Analilia Mejia; Chatham Township Committeeman Justin Strickland; former Lt. Governor Tahesha Way; and newcomer Anna Lee Williams.  Two others – Maplewood Mayor Dean Dafis and former congressional aide Marc Chaaban – have withdrawn from the race, but their names remain on the ballot.

The winner with face Republican Joe Hathaway, the mayor of Randolph, in the April 16 special election

There is virtually no public polling here, so we’re flying blind into this one. If I had to guess who has a legitimate shot today, I’d say in order it’s Malinowski, Mejia, Gill, Way, and Bartlett. Malinowski has weirdly drawn fire from AIPAC in this race, despite being a long-time ally, over saying future aide to Israel should come with conditions. I once shared an office with Mejia, she’s a very nice and capable woman, though I’d say we have a little different politics, but I wish her well. Gill has had a long career as a powerhouse operative in New Jersey politics and has been a county elected in Essex County for a few years now. Way was literally the Lieutenant Governor last month. Bartlett is a county elected. Way, Gill, and Bartlett all have pockets of support in the district that could win them this race if they show up to vote. Mejia and Malinowski have largely driven the narrative though. A win by Malinowski would weirdly be a win for moderate Democrats and a loss for AIPAC, and there’s a lot of overlap there. A win by Mejia would be a big win for progressives. If I had to bet today, I’d bet on Malinowski winning narrow. But we’ll see tonight.

If a Tree Falls in the Forest- What Was the Point of the PA-7 Debate on Sunday?

/ Rich Wilkins / 2 Comments
Live action shot from the PA-7 Debate on Sunday.

I told you on Sunday that they were holding a debate without press, at the request of Croosky’s campaign. I get it, the guy can’t talk off of a script. As it turns out, the details were even dumber than I was initially told. Some guy at the DCCC was actually making the demands for no press, and even no candidate questions for each other. He basically wanted robotic answers and no possibility of anyone slipping up. This is incredibly stupid and kind of gets to the point- they want to push an absolute potato of a candidate on us without testing anything about the guy. They’d rather wait until the general election to see how their guy handles being called out for being a crook. I get why. At a recent Lehigh Valley 4 All meeting, when asked about funding for Israel, Crooksy pulled his shirt up over his face and then proceeded to try and say he’d cut off war funding, but would let them keep the Iron Dome. Hopefully he knows the difference between the Iron Dome and the “Golden Domers” at Notre Dame, but I’m not holding my breath there. He was so awful in his answer that the video is now set to private. Anything to hide this man’s weakness. The problem is, their luck will run out there. For as much as I have released about Crooksy on here so far, the Republicans already have far more. A former fireman who decided not to share information with me about him instead recently took his dossier of interesting info to a Republican lobbyist in Washington. They’re going to tear this guy to shreds.

What’s actually the point of even having a debate if no one sees it? I’d argue that five of these seven candidates have very little to no name recognition right now, including the DCCC’s chosen potato. I mean, they’re debating in a room full of basically well informed, decided voters. No one else got to see it. No live stream, no videos, no press coverage. Did it even happen? If I didn’t have people in the room to tell me about it, I wouldn’t be able to prove it. Honestly, if the support staff doesn’t want these guys to debate, I think they’d be better off just saying don’t have the debate. Honestly, who even benefited from this?

A Look at the 2026 Senate Field

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

So far this entire cycle has been basically focused on the U.S. House and who will gain control in the 2026 midterms. The House is clearly more in play than the Senate, as Democrats will need to win four Republican seats, and there’s just not really four seats in play. In 2026, Democrats have a real shot to win in North Carolina and Maine. After that it’s a lot of what if’s.

Q4 Fundraising numbers are out in most of the big races, giving us the latest look at who has a real shot and who is pretending. Here are some highlights:

  • Roy Cooper raised $7 million in North Carolina. The former Governor is by far the Democrats strongest challenger this cycle and he has basically cleared his pathway to the general election. Lead Republican Michael Whatley raised $3.8 million. While that’s less than Cooper, Republicans rely much more heavily on their super PACs and leadership funds to fund general elections, so he won’t be outspent this badly.
  • Nazi tattoo enthusiast Graham Platner may be DOA in a general election, but he did raise $4.6 million in Maine. Governor Janet Mills was left behind with $2.7 million, which in Maine terms is still way more than enough. Republican Senator Susan Collins raised $2.2 million in Q4. I don’t know how much money it would take to clean up Platner’s Nazi enthusiasm, racism, and homophobia, but I hope we don’t have to find out.
  • In Ohio, Sherrod Brown’s last stand had a strong quarter. He raised $7.3 million for the race. Appointed Senator Jon Husted raised $1.5 million. If Brown can’t win this race in this year, I feel like Ohio is truly gone for a while.
  • In Iowa, it’s a two horse race. Zach Wahls raised $741k and Josh Turek raised $677k. The third candidate, Nathan Sage, raised $229k. Republican front-runner Ashley Hinson raised $1.6 million for the race. Look, if Turek wins, I think this could be in play, as he has a rather amazing personal story that appeals to people outside of just the Democratic base. Wahls came to prominence in Iowa through his own rather interesting story, but I don’t think he has the same kind of crossover appeal that you have to have to win as a Democrat in Iowa.
  • Anyone who has talked to me knows that I don’t think we’re winning Texas no matter who wins the primary. With that said, James Talarico hauled in an impressive $6.9 million last quarter. Despite entering in December, Jasmine Crockett raised $6.5 million. Again, I’m not bullish on this seat, but that’s pretty excellent numbers for a competitive primary. John Cornyn hauled in $7 million, and if he survives his primary I don’t think we have a prayer. Ken Paxton raised $1.1 million for his primary challenge and Wesley Hunt brought in $429k.
  • I do not have anyone’s numbers in Florida.
  • The most endangered Democratic seat may be the open New Hampshire seat where Chris Pappas brought in $2.3 million as the clear Democratic front-runner. Republican former Senator John Sununu raised $1.3 million and Scott Brown raised $374k. Sununu is going to be formidable, but Pappas is off to a good start.
  • Michigan is another major possible problem for Democrats, especially if the wrong person wins the primary. Haley Stevens raised $2.1 million and Mallory McMorrow raised $1.7 million in relatively strong quarters for a primary like this. Both would be good nominees. Abdul El-Sayed was a strong candidate perhaps, before becoming the Bernie/Uncommitted hero, and he raised $1.7 million as well. Republican front-runner Mike Rogers raised $1.9 million.
  • Minnesota is the third of the Democratic open seats, and Angie Craig leads the way with $2 million raised in Q4. Peggy Flanagan raised $1 million.
  • Georgia is the hardest defense for Democrats, but Jon Ossoff raised a whopping $9.9 million in Q4. The top Republican was Buddy Carter at $1.7 million, followed by Dereck Dooley with $1.1 million, and Mike Collins with $825k.

For Democrats to win the Senate, too many things have to go right. They have to win three open seat holds, hold Georgia, win North Carolina and Maine, and then figure out two of four in Ohio, Iowa, Texas, and Florida, which is quite a reach. If Mills, Turek, and either Stevens or McMorrow win their primaries, I think there is a shot. That’s a lot of things that have to go well.

Crosswell Laps Crooksy as PA-7’s Dems Lack Cash for the Stretch Run

/ Rich Wilkins / 2 Comments
“Comrade Bernie, Please Send Help!”

I told you before that despite losing his manager to a job with the Governor, Republican Ryan Crosswell has a huge pile of money for his Congressional run. That’s sort of true. Yes, his shady out-of-town, union buster donors are writing him shit tons of money. He raised $443,757 in Q4, putting him at $1,144,864.79 for his 2025 fundraising. That’s pretty impressive. Until you look at the full report. Crosswell, who is virtually unknown yet to the voters of the 7th Congressional District, where he never lived until this election cycle, spent a whopping $532,615.04 so far in this election. No, he really hasn’t done any direct contact to voters yet. He has $612,250 on hand. That’s an astounding burn rate. I guess the important guys in DC really told him how to run his race. With that said, even this looks competent in the field. He has spent 46.5% of what he has raised so far. That’s absolutely incredible, and not in a good way.

Bob “Crooksy” Brooks must be taking the same advice, he’s just not as good at this. I guess that’s why Harrisburg bosses want to buy it for him. Crooksy got crushed again by Republican Crosswell, raising $301,698 even with the Governor’s help. To date, Crooksy has raised $609,957.05. He has spent an astounding $269,189.98 to date. This leaves him with $340,767.07. I couldn’t even believe his report. No one who doesn’t read this site knows who the hell this guy is yet, and he’s spent nearly half of his money already. If anyone hits him for stiffing his mother-in-law, hating Barack Obama, being a religious fanatic and gun nut, and posting racist shit online, he’ll have to divert his funds away from introducing himself to defending that. He’s spent 44% of his funds as is, and has little to show for it.

I have to admit, I did not think Lamont McClure would have this much trouble raising money, given his track record. But alas, here we are. McClure has raised $480,615.99 so far in the campaign, with $200k of that coming from himself. He raised just $21,770 in the last quarter. He has spent $193,025.79 to date. He has $287,590.20 on hand. Basically Crooksy has spent what he has on hand, Crosswell has spent more, and they’re still behind, which is really what he has to hang his hat on here. He has spent 40% of his money, which is far too much. His report is here. If everyone is going to be left throwing rocks though at the end, he probably wins that. The optics aren’t great, but he has less to introduce than these other folks.

Mark Pinsley’s campaign is in a worse version of the same situation. Pinsley raised $52,088 last quarter, and $125,194.46 for the year. He spent an utterly insane $75,177.31, or the majority of his money. He has $50,017.15 on hand, but also has a debt of $1,567.67. If you don’t believe me, check out his report. Listen, I actually like Mark personally, so don’t get this twisted. The guy has spent 60% of his money. I’m not sure anyone outside of Lehigh County knows much about him. He can basically afford like a little more than one piece of mail to the whole electorate right now.

Carol Obando-Derstine’s situation is interesting, because she raised six figures, but yet the finances look bleak. She raised $100,625 in Q4 and $431,919.36 for the year. She spent a crazy $308,411.36 so far, or most of her money. She has $123,508 on hand, and a $12,500 debt. She spent 71.4% of what she raised. You can check it out here. I guess she’s in a better place than Pinsley, but it feels like she should have spent much less.

Aiden Alexander Gonzalez report isn’t up yet, so we have no idea how he did. Lewis Arthur Shupe doesn’t even turn up a committee when you google him, so I’m going with God there.

Look, I think using fundraising numbers to pick your candidate is the dumbest thing ever. Does anyone really think the DCCC and national Democratic Party PACs aren’t going to come in here and spend in the general election? Of course they are, they have to, there’s no way we win the House and don’t win this seat- unless we nominate a dope of a candidate. You try to pick the candidate who has the best combination of good ideas and a chance to win, both at once. Perfect policy positions are meaningless if you have no shot of winning, and being the most electable candidate ever is worthless if you’re basically going to vote with the other side. The point of looking at these numbers is guessing what their chances of victory are. I don’t think any of them have enough money right now for the stretch run of this race. Television is expensive in the Philadelphia media market. Mail is not cheap in this day and age. Digital? Yeah, it’ll cost you. If you think field organizing is going to win you a race like this, just understand you need to scale up to a Congressional District’s sized field operation- which is expensive. Nobody has that here. Perhaps Crooksy’s dark money gets him there. Maybe Emily’s List gets Carol over the line. Maybe Crosswell just has another good quarter and out spends everyone two-to-one, and the fact that he’s a union-busting Republican doesn’t matter. Or, just maybe, McClure hangs on to this thing by spending wisely. I don’t know. This looks increasingly to me though like it’s a rock and spear chucking battle, and not an atomic age showdown.

As Crooksy Prepares to Debate (Without Press), Harrisburg’s Fat Cats Realize They Need to Buy Him This Race

/ Rich Wilkins / 2 Comments

Bob “Crooksy” Brooks had his office opening yesterday. There were about a dozen people who were in the photo one person posted, which is about what his excitement on the ground in PA-7 is- a couple of elected officials in Allentown, a couple of operatives, a couple of guys who are union members from unions that aren’t members of the Lehigh Valley Building Trades, a child who can’t vote, and like two people who came in from off the street. Quite impressive, right? Now to be fair, I’m not sure any candidate would have a huge number of people at an event like this yet, but both McClure and Obando-Derstine had more people at their announcements, Pinsley had more people at his meeting to organize petitions, and Crosswell isn’t even from here and had more people in some person’s living room the other night.

It’s right about now that “Crooksy’s” Harrisburg handlers are realizing they are going to have to astroturf this thing. There guy is getting out raised badly by Crosswell and even they know he’s much further behind McClure and Obando-Derstine than their poll that purposely excluded Pinsley said. So, here comes the astroturf group to save him:

Good Morning,

I hope this finds you well. I am writing today to invite you to a presentation regarding Stronger Together PA, an entity that will be supporting Bob Brooks in the race for Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional district.

Bob is a Bethlehem firefighter who spent 20 years protecting his community. He was elected President of the Pennsylvania Professional Fire Fighters Association where he led statewide fights for fair wages, benefits, and safety. Bob has earned the endorsement of labor leaders, including IAFF and SEIU, and elected officials such as Governor Josh Shapiro, Congressman Chris Deluzio, and Senator Bernie Sanders. In Congress, Bob will protect good union jobs, focus on affordability, support public safety, and strengthen the Lehigh Valley’s local economy.

PA-07 will be one of the most competitive districts in the country. Bob is facing a crowded primary field, featuring career politicians and out-of-district challengers, and a well funded Republican incumbent. This entity will reach voters to share Bob’s worker first priorities to deliver the 18,000-32,000 required to win the primary and position Bob for success in the general election. 

We will be holding a presentation on February 2 at 5:00 PM over zoomto introduce you to our team, give you an insight into our strategies, and update you on the state of the race. If you are interested in attending, please rsvp to me at mailto:simone@spbstrategies.com. A zoom link for this meeting will be sent upon rsvping. Thank you and we look forward to hearing from you.

Best,
Simone

If your product is defective, sometimes it takes more to fix him than it does to try and make everyone forget about it. How do you make people forget that he stiffed his mother-in-law out of $55k? How do you make people forget that he thinks Barack Obama “sucks?” How do you make people forget that he’s a religious radical and gun nut? How do you make people forget about racist posts? It takes a lot of coin.

One way is to make sure they never see it. So tonight is a Congressional debate at Lafayette College. The street word is that “Crooksy” and his team said they would not take part if media was invited. I’m sure they’d deny it, and I have no idea why any group would want to have a debate that isn’t covered, but I trust the source that told me this. I guess if no one sees that this fire is too big for Crooksy, nobody may know.

There are people sitting in jail right now for taking $50,000 and never paying it back. Crooksy is debating for Congress having done the same thing. And he’s doing it without public scrutiny.