Crooksy’s Crooked Poll

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

You knew this was coming. Crooksy’s allies released polling, and well, it was garbage. Change Research did the poll entirely online, and juiced it up as far as they could for Crooksy. It was much lower quality than earlier polling that showed Crooksy going nowhere. This garbage push poll omits Mark Pinsley, the race’s real far left-winger altogether, puts Crooksy first in their order, and waters down the other candidates bios about as far as they could. It’s almost like they wanted a result that matched their narrative?

Here’s what Crooksy’s poll said about each candidate:

Bob Brooks was a Bethlehem firefighter for twenty years and is the current president of the Pennsylvania Firefighters Association. As a former dishwasher, bartender, warehouse worker, and now a voice for Pennsylvania’s firefighters, Bob Brooks knows what it takes to fight for working people concerned about rising costs. He wants to make the rich pay their fair share of taxes and tackle rising prices. His broad appeal has won him the endorsement of Governor Josh Shapiro and Bernie Sanders. 

Ryan Crosswell is the son of a special education teacher and small business owner who became a Marine and federal prosecutor. At the Justice Department’s public integrity unit, he investigated corruption in government and had a long track record of prosecutions. When Donal Trump became president, he resigned on principle. He is running for Congress to be a voice in Washington for Pennsylvania families. 

Carol Orbando-Derstine was born in Columbia and immigrated to the US when she was three. After graduating from Penn State, she worked in a Head Start program and became the executive director of two Lehigh Valley non profits. She also worked as a regional manager for U.S. Senator Bob Casey. As the first Latina running in the 7th Congressional District, Carol understands local families’ challenges, and she has the experience to deliver real solutions. 

Lamont McClure is a lawyer and longtime member of the Northampton County Council. He is the current Northampton County Executive and is known for his work to protect workers and address the fentanyl crisis. McClure stopped the sale of the county’s nursing home to a for-profit company and prevented warehouses from destroying hundreds of acres of open space. He has won praise for improving county services.

Now, here’s what the PPP Poll back in the Summer said about all five candidates:

  1. Carol Obando-Derstine, is an engineer who has dedicated her life to her community. Immigrating from Colombia at three, she overcame financial and language barriers and now holds two master’s degrees. She worked in a Head Start program and became executive director of SkillsUSA Council and the Children’s Coalition of the Lehigh Valley and has taught at Northampton Community College. Carol spent nearly a decade working on energy issues at PPL Electric Utilities helping people and companies lower their utility bills. Do you find this a very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not a convincing reason to vote for Carol Obando-Derstine?
  2. Here’s the next one: Ryan Crosswell  is the proud son of a special education teacher and small business owner. After 9/11 he joined the United States Marine Corps, and he still serves as a Lt. Col. in the Marine Corps Reserve. After the Marines, Ryan became a federal prosecutor, serving in the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Baton Rouge, San Diego, and Washington, D.C., prosecuting fraudsters, violent criminals, and drug traffickers. Most recently, Ryan served in the Department of Justice’s Public Integrity Section but resigned rather than following politically motivated orders. Do you find this a very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not a convincing reason to vote for Ryan Crosswell?
  3. Here’s the next one: Mark Pinsley is the Lehigh County Controller and a local small business owner. He put himself through college by enlisting in the Army Reserves and working for his grandfather’s business, then raised money to start his own company after graduation. Prior to becoming Controller, he served as a South Whitehall Township Commissioner. As Lehigh County Controller, he has investigated Children and Youth Services to help parents who had their kids taken away without cause, and he has saved the county millions in healthcare spending. Do you find this a very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not a convincing reason to vote for Mark Pinsley?
  4. Here’s the next one: Lamont McClure is the current County Executive in Northampton County and is endorsed by many labor unions. Raised in Carbon County, McClure earned his law degree and fought in court to hold large corporations accountable, including working on behalf of former steelworkers who were poisoned by asbestos for 17 years and getting opioid manufacturers to pay for the damage they caused. As county executive, he led the effort to get 25 million for small businesses in the county to help them survive during the pandemic, he fought for working people, passed seven budgets without a tax increase and cutting property taxes, protected Gracedale nursing home from being sold to a for-profit corporation which would put our seniors at risk, and preserved over 3,800 acres of farmland.  Do you find this a very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not a convincing reason to vote for Lamont McClure?
  5. Here’s the next one: Bob Brooks is president of the Pennsylvania Professional Fire Fighters Association and a small business owner. He served more than 20 years as a firefighter and EMT for the city of Bethlehem before retiring in March. He has taken on many public safety leadership positions locally and statewide, including on Gov. Josh Shapiro’s transition committee on emergency management as a member of the Pennsylvania State Fire Advisory Board. He has coached many levels of baseball in the community, most recently at Nazareth Area High School.

So, I’m going to give you a bit of truth- removing Pinsley really makes this new poll absolute garbage. Mark isn’t dropping out, he has told the minions from Harrisburg as much. He’s also the candidate who would represent the biggest challenge to the Bernie Sanders endorsement of Crooksy. I guess if you removed that guy, put Crooksy first, give him the only bio even close to what any of them are going to say about themselves, and put the initial front-runner last, while leading off by calling him a lawyer and a politician, sure, maybe Crooksy does well. But if you’re going to do that, why not lead by calling Crooksy a deadbeat and Crosswell a Republican. About the only common ground in the two polls is Carol’s bio being similar, and she polls decently well in both.

Look, I think it’s fairly obvious that Crooksy’s team had this poll done, and McClure’s team was behind the first one. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure either out. Neither really tested negatives on each other, and this poll doesn’t include anything about negatives on Crosswell. At least the PPP Poll didn’t try to put McClure first and dumb down anybody’s bio though. This poll isn’t worth the paper it’s printed on.

None of this really matters, because even the best message still relies on money. You have to have enough money to tell someone your story before you even can hope they’ll believe it. You also have to hope no one else has enough money to tell people the down side of your story. In other words, will anyone have the money to tell the story I’ve told you about Crooksy? If the answer is no, then all of this is irrelevant. I guess you know my view of the guy, and again, if no one puts the money behind that, what does that matter? If McClure can cobble together a half-million dollars to tell his good bio, sure, I still think he wins this. That is, unless someone else has a 4:1 spending advantage on him. So basically, what I’m telling you is, unless independent expenditures and super pacs come into this primary, I doubt anyone actually spends enough money on their own to move this race.

Crooksy’s Hero Bernie to Kids With Cancer- Go To Hell!

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

There are useless people, and there’s Bernie Sanders. This man has single-handedly turned me from a liberal Obama supporter into a very certain left-of-center moderate that despises the DSA as much as MAGA. How? Well, our latest installment is Bernie killing a bill to fight pediatric cancer:

Pediatric cancer advocates scrambled to get to the Senate to watch the moment. Reporters who had covered the issue, including this one, were given the heads-up about its imminent passage. At least three kids who are bereaved siblings of cancer victims and one pediatric cancer survivor sat in the Senate gallery.

And then, it failed. A single senator stood in the way. It was Bernie Sanders.

In a dramatic, heated exchange on the Senate floor—caught by the C-SPAN cameras but largely missed by the news-consuming public—Sanders announcedhis opposition to quick passage for the bill. He did so not because he disagreed with its objective—which is to give the FDA the authority to push pharmaceutical companies to study combination drug therapies—but because he worried that extraneous provisions attached to it would make it harder to achieve other priorities. He argued that the Senate ought to be passing similarly important, bipartisan-supported health care measures along with it. His staff insisted to me that they would revisit the bill soon, and they seemed confident it would all get done in the new year.

I mean look, I say a lot of mean things about far lefties, and some of them are probably a bit hyperbolic. Not in this case. This ass hole literally killed a bill to help kids with cancer because the bill didn’t deal with other things he wants done. Like, really. Kids with cancer dude? The week before Christmas, he killed a bill to help kids with cancer. I knew he was a piece of shit before, but this is the kind of low that I did not think was possible.

We often have the argument over which side is worse. Both sides in politics claim the high ground. I think we are reaching the point where both parties literally have extremists so far out on the horseshoe that they’re just both assholes who need to go home. Bernie isn’t the only person who has played football with this bill, amazingly. Take his right-wing mirror, Rand Paul, for example:

The bill was on the doorstep of passage through the Republican-controlled House when Elon Musk suddenly decided to take it upon himself to kill it. In a series of caustic tweets, he called for GOP lawmakers to scrap every element of the legislation that wasn’t a simple continuation of the current government policy. The health care components that had been negotiated were scrapped.

And then, for a brief moment, they looked like they might be revived.

In the hours after Congress passed that pared-down December 2024 funding bill, lawmakers revisited three pediatric cancer provisions. One of them, which would provide money for pediatric cancer research, passed the Senate with unanimous consent. The Give Kids a Chance Act failed. This time it was Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) who objected.

Ok, so the socialist left-wing nut and the libertarian right-wing nut have taken turns blocking care for kids with cancer. Shocking? Not at all. What is this a fight over, you ask? What could possibly cause these two men to take turns sticking it to children with cancer? Trust me, it’s as dumb as you can imagine.

For example, Rand Paul had come around to support a unanimous consent request on the Give Kids a Chance Act in part because lawmakers had added to it a provision he wanted: one that would give the FDA authority to share information about innovator (i.e., brand-name) drugs to prospective applicants. That specific provision is projected to save roughly $1.2 billion over the ten-year budgetary window (according to Hill aides), which would go into a Medicare account. Why does that matter, you ask? Because Sanders wanted the savings to be used to fund community health centers instead. And once money goes into Medicare, it’s hard to take it out for use elsewhere. No politician wants to be attacked for raiding a social safety net program.

That was just one problem that Sanders had with the bill. He also wanted all of the provisions that Musk scrapped back in December 2024 to be passed as well, not just the Give Kids a Chance Act. Among them: mandatory funding for the national health service corps and mandatory funding for the teaching health center program. Were they not important, too, he asked on the Senate floor.

“We must revive that bipartisan agreement that was worked on month after month after month by Democrats and Republicans,” Sanders said.

Efforts were made to try and push through. Sen. Bill Cassidy, who took over the chairmanship of the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee from Sanders in 2025, tried holding out carrots, making what appeared to be a commitment to his colleague to help get community health care funding passed. Sen. Markwayne Mullin, a major proponent of the Give Kids a Chance Act, tried wielding a stick instead.

“He is literally killing kids in front of us because of his political movement,” he said of Sanders on the Senate floor. “It is ridiculous.”

Jesus f’ing Christ, Markwayne Mullin sounds like the f***ing adult in the room here! Does anyone know how ridiculous that is? Markwayne Mullin. From Oklahoma. The sane adult in the room. Are you for real?!?

Look, one can and should argue that this is Chuck Schumer and 8 Democrats who voted to reopen the government’s fault- they didn’t take easy victories like this and put it in their demands to vote to end the shutdown, let alone the health care subsidies for millions of Americans. Even so, this is not a bill that really should need to be in a negotiation. It’s not like money going into the Medicare fund is a bad thing, especially for the socialist that says he wants to put literally everyone on Medicare. But fine. This bill may be incremental progress on health care, but it’s progress no less, and lawmakers should vote for progress for their constituents any time they have a chance to. Moving legislation is hard.

Lawmakers like Bernie Sanders make it harder, doing stupid stunts like this on bills that no one wants them to fight over. There’s a reason this guy hasn’t passed very many bills in his 30 plus years in Congress. He’s the last person you should take advice from on who to elect to Congress to make American life better.

Just a reminder that Bernie Sanders endorsed Bob “Crooksy” Brooks for Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District on the day Bob announced. Yes, that Bob Brooks. And that Bob Brooks. And that Bob Brooks. Yep, still that Bob Brooks. He also supported Graham Platner in Maine, the guy who rocked a Nazi tattoo for a decade. He also helped give us lying grifter and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard with his praise, and the guy who killed ACA subsidies for millions, John Fetterman as our Senator.

Can’t Bernie go home and knit or something and stop hurting America?

An Updated Look at the Phillies Off-Season

/ Rich Wilkins / Leave a comment

The Winter meetings are over. The Phillies have what appears to be an outfield. The core of their lineup- Harper, Schwarber, and Turner- is sticking around together for the next five years. They have built a very strong bullpen, probably an over abundance of quality arms there even. The Phillies have 37 players now on the 40 man roster, and a current projected payroll of $288,258,771. I am including all guaranteed contracts, projected arbitration numbers from MLBTradeRumors.com, and filling in currently unfilled roster spots with young players on the 40 man roster.

Here’s a look at the current projected 26 man roster.

Catcher- Rafael Marchan ($1,000,000) and Garrett Stubbs ($925,000). $1,925,000

Infield- Bryce Harper- 1B ($25,384,615), Bryson Stott- 2B ($5,800,000), Trea Turner- SS ($27,272,727), Alec Bohm- 3B ($10,300,000), Edmundo Sosa- Utility Man ($3,900,000), and Otto Kemp ($820,000). $73,477,342

Outfield- Adolis Garcia- RF ($10,000,000), Justin Crawford- CF ($820,000, not yet on the roster), Brandon Marsh- LF ($4,500,000), and Johan Rojas ($820,000). $16,140,000

Designated Hitter- Kyle Schwarber ($30,000,000). $30,000,000

Starting Rotation– Cristopher Sanchez- LHP ($5,625,000), Zack Wheeler- RHP ($42,000,000), Jesus Luzardo- LHP ($10,400,000), Aaron Nola- RHP ($24,571,429), and Taijuan Walker- RHP ($18,000,000). $100,596,429

Bullpen– Jhoan Duran- RRP ($7,600,000), Jose Alvarado- LRP ($9,000,000), Brad Keller- RRP ($11,000,000), Matt Strahm- LRP ($7,500,000), Orion Kerkering- RRP ($820,000), Tanner Banks- LRP ($1,200,000), Zach McCambley– RRP ($820,000), and Max Lazar- RRP ($820,000). $46,120,000

Untraded Contract- Nick Castellanos ($20,000,000). $20,000,000

Additional 40 man roster players (All are pro-rated $820,000 deals)– Jean Cabrera- RSP, Moises Chase- RSP, Yoniel Curet– RSP, Nolan Hoffman- RRP, Seth Johnson- RRP, Alex McFarlane- RSP, Andrew Painter- RSP, Alan Rangel- RSP, Pedro Leon- OF, Gabriel Rincones- OF, Weston Wilson- OF

So there are a number of additions here, some that are exciting, some that are just upgrades. Obviously with Schwarber back, the DH spot is filled and the Phillies have two feared home run threats from the left side. Garcia had a season roughly equivalent to Castellanos offensively, but he was a considerably better defensive outfielder, so he represents an upgrade- even if another one year, reclamation project has serious shades of Max Kepler written on it. The signing of Brad Keller gives the Phillies a formidable front six in their bullpen to shut down games behind a very talented starting pitching group. McCambley comes over from Miami, via the Rule 5 draft, coming off of his best season in the minors for AAA Jacksonville, featuring a wipeout slider that generates a lot of swing and miss. The Phillies also snagged Yoniel Curet from Tampa Bay after he was a 40 man roster casualty. At 24, with a very live arm, he could turn into a starter or reliever with some tweaks and work. The Phillies also signed Bryse Wilson to a minor league deal as a potential swing man.

So with three open 40 man spots, what’s next? The obvious glaring, immediate need is a catcher. The Phillies made an offer to J.T. Realmuto last week according to reports, and he hasn’t signed yet. I’m guessing they offered him two years and he wants three. They certainly could wait him out and hope he comes back, which is probably the best case scenario. They could also search the trade market and see if there’s a catcher who comes at a lower price than the estimated $12-15 million a year that Realmuto is likely to get.

They do need to trade Nick Castellanos. He now has no real purpose on this roster and needs a fresh start. If the Phillies are willing to eat enough money, I do think teams like Cleveland, Miami, and St. Louis could be destinations for him to go serve as a fourth outfielder and DH option for them. There’s not really any urgency to get that done though, at least not yet.

Zack Wheeler is going to begin the season rehabbing, and I don’t think the Phillies can really afford to just roll with Walker and Painter potentially ending up making over 20 starts each this season. Walker is fine as a fifth starter or swing man, and the Phillies could eat some of his money to send him to a team looking for a more affordable guy to play that role. There is a lot of smoke to the rumors of the Phillies having interest in Tatsuya Imai, though reports today say the Cubs and Yankees are likely to be finalists for the Japanese ace as well. Of course there is Ranger Suarez as well, but the Phillies are unlikely to meet his market in the $25-30 million range unless they move other money off the books. Even so, the Phillies should still be talking to him.

Dave Dombrowski says the Phillies outfield is probably done for now. I tend to believe him. Bellinger and Tucker are the big impact outfield bats still available, and both are left handed. If things stay as is, Garcia will be in right, Crawford in center, and Marsh in left, with Rojas serving as the fourth outfielder. The Phillies will probably want a right-handed option to play against lefties for Marsh, and the internal candidates are Otto Kemp, Weston Wilson, Edmundo Sosa, and Pedro Leon (I suppose you could argue for Castellanos too since you’re going to pay him anyway, but that ship has sailed). I wouldn’t be shocked if the Phillies kick the tires on a Rob Refsnyder type of option as well. He and Marsh would form an ideal platoon and allow the Phillies to stash Rojas away in AAA for another year. I also would not totally dismiss a reunion with Harrison Bader yet. The Phillies could take him back later in the off-season on a shorter deal, move Crawford over to left for now, and trade Marsh to teams looking for a left handed outfield option. While the Phillies clearly like Marsh, they have not liked him enough to extend him yet, and only control him for two more seasons.

If there were to be an area of the team where there could still be major upheaval, I would say it is in the infield. There are still some impact free agents who don’t hit from the left side. Alex Bregman could be a great fit, the question is how much money and how long of a deal he wants, and if the Phillies can move enough money off the books to even consider it. I’d say it’s possible, but it’s a long shot. Eugenio Suarez is projected to get three years and roughly $70-75 million total, a number more in line with what the Phillies would probably like, but they may be weary of doing so at his age (34). Kazuma Okamoto, the 29 year old Japanese slugger who primarily (but not exclusively) plays third base is very intriguing, and seems to be a low risk, high reward option, but his market seems very uncertain between now and the end of his posting period on January 4th. 25 year old Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami is probably the most intriguing option out of the third base crowd, with his prodigious power and complaints about his struggles against high velocity. His market seems even less certain than Okamoto’s. Bo Bichette is a less obvious fit as a shortstop, but he could probably slot in at second or third and provide the major right handed bat the Phillies desire. He’s going to cost a lot though. Nolan Arrenado doesn’t seem like a fit unless the Phillies have another major move somewhere else, and are getting him in a trade involving Castellanos and Bohm.

Even if the Phillies sign none of those infielders, I would still guess that Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott can be had in a trade for the right price. The Phillies top offensive prospect, Aidan Miller, ended the season in AAA. He’s probably not going to be the shortstop in Philly, so he’s either going to second or third at some point this season. Bohm is in his walk year and there are no signs of him being extended, hence all the interest in third basemen on the market. Stott has two more years of control, but also doesn’t seem to be in line for an extension, and Miller could be ready to play his way into that spot at any time. There’s also all of the Ketel Marie rumors, and while I think he’s really good, he’s 32 and makes $19.4 million for the next five years (six if he opts into the $11.5 million final year).

I don’t think the Phillies off-season is nearly done, and so far I think I approve overall of it. Garcia doesn’t blow me away as an outfield signing, but an outfield that ends up consisting of him, Crawford, and probably Marsh is better and cheaper moving forward. The bullpen looks stacked, and now you just have to wonder if they will listen to offers on Strahm. I think it’s clear that a player, or players, will be traded away besides Castellanos, even if the only major addition left is a Realmuto signing. An additional right handed bat would really be huge though, particularly if they want to improve their odds against the Dodgers.