If the 2025 Election were a race for a new seat on the Supreme Court, I’d probably be predicting the GOP to narrowly win. It’s not though, and that is going to loom large in how people interpret tomorrow’s results. The Republican Party and their rich backers need voters to vote all the way to the end of the ballot, then vote “no” on retention for the three Supreme Court seats and the singular seat up for the Superior and Commonwealth Courts. That’s a tall task, history says.

Over 810 thousand votes are in already (810,377). The truth is that my numbers are a few hours behind, and that number is probably higher now. Democrats hold a roughly 336,000 voter edge in those votes. I expect 2,403,455 voters to vote in person tomorrow. I expect Republicans to hold about a 290,000 vote edge in registration tomorrow. That means Democrats come out around 46,000 voters up in registration. The roughly 245,000 independent and third party voters will decide tomorrow’s statewide races. Again, if this were a regular election where both parties had candidates on the ballot, I’d be predicting a nail biter.

It’s not though. I can only recall one statewide judge losing retention, and he was neck deep in the 2006 pay raise scandal. Democrats as individual candidates for retention and as a collective movement are spending like crazy to get their voters to vote “yes.” That seems like the likely outcome to me. What I sort of wonder to myself is if Alice Beck Dubow and Michael Wojcik might suffer from less notoriety in their retentions for the Superior and Commonwealth Courts. So if the Supreme Court Judges get 55% Yes tomorrow, do these two end up in a nail biter. The other thing I’m interested in is whether there are signs of a Democratic wave here. Friends working elections in Washington state and Virginia tell me that suburban voters are breaking hard towards Democrats in their polling, with even a substantial number of moderate Republicans (10-15% above normal) in suburban areas breaking towards Democrats. If we see numbers like that in Bucks, Lehigh, Northampton, Montgomery, Chester, and Delaware, it could be a very good night for Democrats. Look, if these retentions end up being blowouts with over 60% voting yes, you have to at least consider that’s what normally happens. For the partisan attention these races got though, I’d be surprised by that.

There are two stand alone judicial races tomorrow at the state level, and they are a very different story. Washington County Judge Brandon Neuman is the Democratic candidate for the Superior Court, and he faces horror movie character 2023 Republican nominee Maria Battista (I managed one of her successful opponents in 2023, so I definitely have some feelings about her). Philadelphia County Judge Stella Tsai faces Republican Matt Wolford in the race for Commonwealth Court. If I had to guess, this will end up in a split decision, with Neuman winning close and Wolford winning close. This will basically come down to the independent and third party voters. One thing I have to wonder is how well the voters know any of these four, compared to the Supreme Court race.

Even a blowout in Pennsylvania is closer than most elections in most of America. If someone wins by 100k votes, we act like that’s some blowout when over 3 million people vote. This election will generally be decided by two things. First, the 245,000 or so independent and third party voters, which probably will pick a winner. Second, the 282,088 vote by mail ballots that have not been returned. Democrats have 100,000 more votes in this group, so more returning is good for them. As is, I am predicting a turnout of 3,213,674 or more. I’m predicting the “yes” votes for Supreme Court to be around 55%, with slightly less for the lower courts. I’m predicting the new seats go to Neuman and Wolford.

Again, you can follow my work here. The numbers for the state are in tab 3.