The GM meetings are done. The deadline for adding prospects to the 40 man roster to protect the eligible ones from the Rule 5 Draft has now passed. Free agency has begun. Let’s take another look at where the Phillies 26 man and 40 man rosters are at to start the off-season. Here’s the current players on the roster, with likely payroll:

• Catchers– Rafael Marchan (approximately $1 million in arbitration) and Garrett Stubbs (approximately $925,000 in arbitration). $1,925,000
• Infield– Bryce Harper- 1B ($25,384,615), Bryson Stott- 2B (approximately $5,800,000 in arbitration), Trea Turner- SS ($27,272,727), Alec Bohm- 3B (approximately $10,300,000 in arbitration), Edmundo Sosa- Utility Man (approximately $3,900,000 in arbitration), and Otto Kemp ($820,000). $73,477,342
• Outfield– Nick Castellanos- RF ($20,000,000), Johan Rojas- CF ($820,000), Brandon Marsh- LF (approximately $4,500,000 in arbitration), Weston Wilson- DH ($820,000), and Gabriel Rincones Jr.- OF ($820,000). $26,140,000
• Starting Rotation– Cristopher Sanchez- LHP ($5,625,000), Zack Wheeler- RHP ($42,000,000), Jesus Luzardo- LHP (approximately $10,400,000 in arbitration), Aaron Nola- RHP ($24,571,429), and Taijuan Walker- RHP ($18,000,000). $100,596,429.
• Bullpen– Jhoan Duran- RRP (approximately $7,600,000 in arbitration), Jose Alvarado- LRP ($9,000,000), Matt Strahm- LRP ($7,500,000), Orion Kerkering- RRP ($820,000), Tanner Banks- LRP (approximately $1,200,000 in arbitration), David Robert-RRP ($820,000), Max Lazar- RRP ($820,000), and Andrew Painter- Long Man ($820,000). $35,960,000
• Additional 40 man rosterees, all at pro-rated $820,000 based on how many days they are in the majors this season– Jean Cabrera- RHP, Moises Chace- RHP, Nolan Hoffman- RRP, Seth Johnson- RHP, Alex Mcfarlane- RHP, Michael Mercado- RRP, and Alan Rangel- RHP.
• Payroll- $238,098,771

Alright, so as is the Phillies can fill out a 26 man roster that is not so good, and have 7 additional players on the 40 man roster (for a total of 33), at $238,098,771. They have seven available roster spots before spring training, and they will probably put Moises Chace on the 60 day IL (he’s coming back from Tommy John in Reading) to start the year, giving them an 8th spot to add then. Justin Crawford would probably make this team, but they don’t need to give him a spot yet (he could take Chace’s) before Opening Day.

So we now know some things based on Dombrowski’s public comments. Bryce Harper isn’t moving off of first base. Rojas is available in a trade. We already know Castellanos is. The outfield is an area of need. Teams are calling about the Phillies left relief trio, Jose Alvarado, Matt Strahm, and Tanner Banks. The Phillies would like to re-sign Harrison Bader, and want Crawford in the outfield. Schwarber and Ranger rejected the Phillies Qualifying Offer, so the Phillies will receive picks if they leave. The Phillies are prioritizing re-signing Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto.

Ok, so let’s do some things. Let’s assume Crawford will make this team, and will do so at Castellanos’ expense, who will be gone one way or the other. Even if they eat that whole deal, Crawford is at a league minimum. Let’s say they re-sign Schwarber for five years at $30 million per year, and Realmuto for three years at $15 million per year. With Crawford, that is $45,820,000 in added payroll. Let’s presume the Phillies also bring back Harrison Bader at two years and $13 million per year too. Now we’re at $58,820,000. We can now take Stubbs off the books, as the Phillies would highly likely not offer him arbitration since he wouldn’t make the team and is out of options. We’re already accounting for Castellanos going and Crawford taking his roster spot. Let’s just say that we’re hoping a team takes *at least* $820,000 of Castellanos’ deal for this year, thereby making Crawford a wash. Bringing back Schwarber means Gabriel Rincones Jr. returns to AAA this year as does Weston Wilson with Bader back. Rojas is your 4th outfielder, *for now.* So the Phillies add $55,435,000 in payroll, taking them to $293,533,771. One of Marsh, Bader, and Crawford would have to move to right, all three would start. Your bench would look similar to this year’s, with Marchan, Sosa, Kemp, and Rojas. Your catching is the same. Your infield is the same. Wheeler probably starts the year on the IL, moving Painter into the rotation and opening up another bullpen spot for a quarter of the year. That costs you about $205,000. You’re at $293,738,771 right now. You have 36 roster spots filled, four available.

Now again here, you’re trying to move Castellanos and maybe save more, Rojas is on the block, one would think that bringing back Bader makes you at least take calls on Marsh, teams are already calling you about your surplus of lefties (I would assume Strahm is the most likely to move), I would think Taijuan Walker is very available in a trade if you’ll eat some portion of his money, and one would have to assume that Bohm and Stott are very available to make room for the eventual arrival of Aidan Miller. Your priorities are probably a corner outfield bat, an upgrade at either second or third, a righty reliever you would throw in high leverage spots, and maybe a swing man type of starter to replace Walker. I’d like them to prioritize Ranger Suarez, but they would need to move some cash for that to be realistic. If you do the math, they have four spots available, and at least four spots of need. Because of both roster spots and money, I would think they will try to fill at least one of these needs by trading away at least one of the players above in a move to do that. The outfield free agent market lacks after your Tucker or Bellinger types, so could you trade for Jarren Duran or Stephen Kwan? It will cost you, and might require a third team. Then you get into the question of what kind of infielder you can even get. I bet the Phillies could sign Luis Arraez at their current budget, and I might prefer him on a two year deal to Bryson Stott, but is that the kind of move that wins you the World Series? And do you think Miller belongs at second or third? Do you scour the trade market for the right handed reliever you want, because the market costs too much? You at least think you try. You almost certainly need to clear some money to play in the Munetaka Murakami, Alex Bregman, and Eugenio Suarez pool at third base, unless you really might move Castellanos for Arrenado, in which case are you now in the big boy market in the outfield? Lots of moving parts here.

Even just as is, the Phillies are probably over last year’s budget. They were at $305 million without the tax (as best as I can tell), and when you add in all the benefits and bonuses they pay 40 man players and minor leaguers, you have to tack $30 million on to my nearly $294 million number. So that puts them almost $20 million over this year’s number. Dombrowski said payroll would be *roughly* similar. So any additional big moves you have in mind need a subtraction. The Phillies need at least another big move. Bringing back Schwarber, Realmuto, and Bader isn’t assuring you of anything. Sure, you can have high hopes for Crawford, Painter, and even Miller this season, but how high?

Let’s look at this one other way though. If you went out and did all of this, and added Bregman, or Kyle Tucker, or Cody Bellinger, or whoever you’d like, are you in any more certain of a situation to win than you are now? None of them played in this year’s World Series. They were all very good. Are you totally cooked if Arraez and Arrenado are in your infield next year? You’re probably not wildly worse off. You have a good pitching staff that probably pitches you into playoff contention unless it has massive injuries. We’re not talking about losing Schwarber, or Harper, or Turner, or Sanchez, or any other core player anywhere in my piece (I do realize we absolutely could lose Schwarber, or even Realmuto, even though I’m assuming their returns). If you keep your big three bats, your rotation, and the back end relievers you have, you were a 95 win team that won the division two straight years. You can get lucky in the playoffs with any set of role players around them, if they’re big enough for those October moments. That’s not something we have a stat for.

Part I. Part II.