The Latest on the Phillies Off-Season

Well, the Phillies were busy last week. Not busy, as in signing a major bat, or trading away someone from last year’s lineup, or even signing a starting pitcher. No, they were busy beginning to save some money and re-making the bullpen. Gone is Matt Strahm. In are Jonathan Bowlan, Kyle Backhus, and Zach Pop. The Phillies will have a very lively battle for spots in the bullpen.

There’s been a lot of talk about why Strahm is gone, but most of it is stupid talk. Strahm will make $7,500,000 this coming season. Strahm was set to be between the 4th and 6th option out of the bullpen. This means he wasn’t going to pitch in all high leverage situations. It also means paying him made little to no sense when they lack a starting catcher and anyone who could provide viable protection for their first three hitters from the cleanup spot. In short, it was an obvious need for a team that needs more, and is in the third level of the luxury tax.

Here’s a look at the roster now, as opposed to last week:

Catcher- Rafael Marchan ($1,000,000) and Garrett Stubbs ($925,000). $1,925,000

Infield- Bryce Harper- 1B ($25,384,615), Bryson Stott- 2B ($5,800,000), Trea Turner- SS ($27,272,727), Alec Bohm- 3B ($10,300,000), Edmundo Sosa- Utility Man ($3,900,000), and Otto Kemp ($820,000). $73,477,342

Outfield- Adolis Garcia- RF ($10,000,000), Justin Crawford- CF ($820,000, not yet on the roster), Brandon Marsh- LF ($4,500,000), and Johan Rojas ($820,000). $16,140,000

Designated Hitter- Kyle Schwarber ($30,000,000). $30,000,000

Starting Rotation– Cristopher Sanchez- LHP ($5,625,000), Zack Wheeler- RHP ($42,000,000), Jesus Luzardo- LHP ($10,400,000), Aaron Nola- RHP ($24,571,429), and Taijuan Walker- RHP ($18,000,000). $100,596,429

Bullpen– Jhoan Duran- RRP ($7,600,000), Jose Alvarado- LRP ($9,000,000), Brad Keller- RRP ($11,000,000), Orion Kerkering- RRP ($820,000), Tanner Banks- LRP ($1,200,000), Jonathan Bowlan- RRP ($820,000), Zach McCambley– RRP ($820,000), and Zach Pop- RRP ($820,000). $40,260,000

Untraded Contract- Nick Castellanos ($20,000,000). $20,000,000

Additional 40 man roster players (All are pro-rated $820,000 deals)– Kyle Backhus- LRP, Jean Cabrera- RSP, Moises Chase- RSP, Yoniel Curet– RSP, Nolan Hoffman- RRP, Seth Johnson- RRP, Max Lazar- RRP, Alex McFarlane- RSP, Andrew Painter- RSP, Alan Rangel- RSP, Pedro Leon- OF, Gabriel Rincones- OF, Weston Wilson- OF

This leaves the Phillies with 39 players on the roster at a cost of $282,398,771. Weston Wilson, Zach Pop, Jonathan Bowlan, Rafael Marchan, Garrett Stubbs, and of course Zach McCambley are bubble players with no options to go to the minors right now, so they would lose their 40 man spot if they don’t make the team. Moises Chase will go immediately on the 60 day IL, while recovering from Tommy John, so a spot will open at the end of Spring Training on the roster. Zack Wheeler will begin the season on the IL, but it’s questionable which list. By my count, that means the Phillies only have one 40 man spot to hand out right now, but can sign more players on minor league deals to come to camp and compete, as they will probably have one or two spots available.

The obvious issues are there right now- they don’t have a starting catcher, their rotation has a serious lack of depth, and they still don’t have a cleanup hitter. I probably would not have given Pop a guaranteed deal and roster spot given all of that, but you almost certainly need more relievers than you think. I don’t see many ways the Phillies can re-sign JT Realmuto AND add a middle of the order bat right now, let alone go sign Imai or Ranger Suarez to join this rotation. Yes, you’re going to get rid of Castellanos and at least $820,000 of salary almost assuredly, but that doesn’t change much. You need someone to take on Castellanos and something like $5 million of his salary to really free up much room, but the spot alone would be nice. It would be nice to trade Taijuan Walker and free up $8-10 million of his $18 million salary, but given the depth issues in the rotation, that’s not feasible. Unless there is payroll flexibility for a specific player (Probably Imai or Okamoto, given the Phillies stated desire to get into the Japanese player market), you really only have flexibility to make one big splash signing. If you want Bichette or Bregman, you probably can’t have JT or another starter, and you almost certainly need to move at least one of Bohm and Stott, if not both. There may be a world where you can do Okamoto and Realmuto both, given what Murakami ended up getting in the end, but even there you will need sign off from John Middleton to take the payroll up a bit, and you still have to move Bohm to do it.

What would I do? I’d go all in on one of Bichette/Bregman/Okamoto/Eugenio Suarez, try to dump Bohm, Stott, Castellanos, and maybe even Walker to free up the money, and pivot off of Realmuto to a cheaper catching option. I’d rather have Realmuto back, but if a guy with a .700 OPS, who gets most of his current value from his defense, is going to hold you hostage for a third year that you know won’t be ideal, just sign the best defensive catcher on the market (or trade for one), and bite the bullet that you’ll pick up the offense elsewhere. Hopefully they can still work a deal out with Realmuto and find a few bucks of savings somewhere else to pick up one more bat. I just am less and less hopeful for that.

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