Who Will Lehigh County Dems Pick?

Todays’ the day that Lehigh County Democrats will pick their candidate to replace incoming Lehigh County Executive Josh Siegel in his Allentown and Salisbury based 22nd District seat. The candidates are lining up:

Four Democratic candidates — precinct committee person Erlinda Aguilar; Allentown City Councilwoman Ce-Ce Gerlach; Julian Guridy, an aide to state Sen. Nick Miller; and Lewis Shupe, who attempted to launch a congressional campaign in 2024 — submitted their names for consideration ahead of Thursday’s 5 p.m. deadline, Lehigh County Democratic Committee Chair Lori McFarland said.

A fifth, Douglas Kunkle, withdrew his nomination.

Kunkle apparently withdrew out of frustration with the process. Gerlach has also complained about who is and who isn’t an eligible voter, from what I’ve been told. Many expected that. The Allentown City Democrats did fold several years ago, leading to some questions about who is and who isn’t still on the committee, though it actually appears that this isn’t as real of a question as some believed. Jessica Ortiz, who had a Facebook page to run for this seat, did not apply for the Democratic nomination either.

If you put a gun to my head and asked me who is going to win today, well you wouldn’t need the gun, because I would tell you that it will be Julian Guridy. Guridy is publicly supported by Mayor Tuerk, Siegel, and Allentown’s other two Representatives, Mike Schlossberg and Pete Schweyer, and a functioning adult would guess State Senator Nick Miller, Guridy’s current boss. Does anyone think the committee is going to go out of it’s way to embarrass literally every significant elected official at the state level from Allentown? Of course not.

Gerlach is formidable (I don’t know the other two candidates very well, so I can’t comment there) and this is not the end. She has support from most of the more leftist groups in Allentown, and this committee selection is only binding for the February 24th Special Election. She is still more than able to run in the May Primary, and has a base of support for that race.

With all of that said, Guridy is going to win today.

Collective Political Failure

Donald Trump is the President of the United States and Zohran Mamdani is the Mayor of New York. One, a raging madman that has re-defined conservatism around his cult of personality, hatred towards those he perceives of enemies, and the destruction of both our federal government and the existing world order since World War II. The other, a self-described socialist that won’t say “the Intifada” is bad, wants to open city owned grocery stores, and ran on a platform of giving away a lot of free stuff to city residents that he will need Albany to come in and foot the bill for. If you read my blog regularly, you know that I have no use for either one. In fact, I think the election of both is a sign of a society in decline.

As is true with all things though, Mamdani’s first day was a mixed bag, even if it was almost all bad. He did decide to keep the city’s office that fights antisemitism, even if he weakened it a bit, which is a good thing. He also is showing signs that he is willing to cut through some bureaucratic red tape in the government to help build more housing fast. Other than those two things, his first day in office was a hellscape of terrible. You know it’s bad when the speeches by AOC and Bernie were as much about criticizing Democrats as the Trump Administration, but they were nothing compared to Mamdani’s. One line, in particular, has received almost all of the attention- “We will replace the frigidity of rugged individualism with the warmth of collectivism.” If Mao or Stalin himself had said this, we would have zero shock. The speech was literally a call to return to at least “big government liberalism,” if not an outright socialist battle cry altogether. As Putin critic and former Soviet citizen Gary Kasparov put it on Twitter, “The “warmth of collectivism” is to freeze while those with heated dachas tell you how noble your sacrifice is.” Mamdani, a man born of economic and academic privilege, is what happens when limousine liberalism gets put on steroids and hyper-charged. There is a reason China rejected Mao, the Soviet Union failed, Cuba is a failure, Venezuela is now a living hell, and no one wants to go to North Korea. This kind of rhetoric leads to failure, because the underlying system of socialism has no grounding in practical reality, it cannot be run in a functional way. Mamdani’s solution is to get the city involved in things the city probably can’t do very well, like run a grocery store. His solution to expensive transit is to make it free. His solution to some crimes is to legalize them. What he doesn’t get is that someone has to pay for it all. Politicians in Albany aren’t going to be excited to raise taxes to pay for his programs, and they probably will just refuse to do it for the most part. To the extent he’s even allowed, he may try to pin that bill on the wealthy in New York City. At least some of them will just leave. No city, not even the greatest city, can survive with no taxpayer base.

My guess is Mamdani will mostly fail to deliver, and that’s my hope. If he succeeds, it will have long lasting impacts on the city, and a few will be good, but the net will be bad. How do you get to Mamdani though? You get there through electing a Trump. How do you get a Trump? You get there by a government that the public doesn’t think meets it’s needs. A world where more people live out of debt, work more hours, and get ahead less. In short, it is a collective failure that gets you to Mamdani. Oh, the irony.

Goodbye 2025

The first time I walked my dog again, this year.
I returned where my health issues began, Scottsdale, Arizona. It was much better this time.
The top of the hill, off roading in California.
The Oasis show at MetLife Stadium.
He’s always watching.
New York, New York.

I stared out across the mall, watching the fireworks. I realized I was completely burned out. The date wasn’t August 17th, 2024, the day my body failed and my life was on the brink. The date was January 20th, 2021. I was in Washington, DC and I had just finished working the inauguration of President Biden. I was over it all. I had been burning the candle further and further down that was my life. I was at the end. I wanted to turn down a job offer to manage a campaign, and I had already basically given up on joining the Biden Administration. I was in denial, that all I needed was a short break and then I’d be back to myself. I was at my wits end. I was probably already diabetic at that point, so my physical health was in decline. My mental health was shot. I was in denial about both, because well, I could make everything look fine.

From that day up until August 17th, 2024, I was able to fake it good sometimes. I had successes professionally. I went to the gym and had good work outs. I could make you think I was functioning. I did it better than anybody, trust me. I should have won an Oscar for the last five years of my life. I played my supporting actor role like an elite leading actor. Right until I got the infection in my foot, nothing was visibly wrong. Then it was. In the time since I almost died, my doctors have opened my eyes to where I was at. I was on a slow decline towards a young death that suddenly was accelerated by the blood infections. In a really, really weird way, almost dying literally saved my life.

2025 was the most adequate year ever. Not great, not bad, just adequate. Coming after the living hell of 2024, it was exactly what I needed at this time in my life. I needed to survive, heal, and get my strength back. I spent this year doing just that. I’m weirdly healthier than I was before. The fog in my mind has been lifting slowly over the course of this year. I’ve come around to the reality that is me. There wasn’t anything that great about this year, other than that I survived it. I’m not truly thriving yet. I’m much better than I was though. I also now know just how much I can actually take.

I’m afraid of nothing now. This year wasn’t the year I wanted, but it was the year I needed, to clear my mind and body. I did just that. I’m thankful for everything, every day, and every person. Thank you all, and god bless you in 2026.