When the confetti stops falling on Sunday night sports fans everywhere will turn their attention to Florida and Arizona (as well as the ongoing NBA and NHL seasons and Daytona), and the beginning of the long baseball season ahead. The “hot stove” offseason will have basically run it’s course, and now we’ll have to see how teams actually do on the field. Rarely is there a direct correlation between who wins the offseason and who wins the season, though it was fun. In truth, only a small few free agents have the ability to take a mediocre team and make them good on their own, or a good team and make them great. So the real question is, what has actually changed?

If you read the chronically online portion of the Phillies fan base’s posts, you would think the Phillies were an 83 win team that missed the playoffs last year. They certainly were not that. They were a 96 win team that was basically *three or four plays* from beating the best team in baseball in a playoff series last year. Sure, they lost Ranger Suarez, and that will hurt, but besides that, they have not lost any major difference maker from that team who they did not upgrade on in the off-season. The Phillies clearly went into the off-season with a couple of goals, and did most of them. They kept as much of their core together as they could, re-signing Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto. They wanted to upgrade their bullpen, something they believe they have done by adding Brad Keller and having Jhoan Duran and Jose Alvarado for the full 2026 season, as well as hoping for sleeper big seasons from Orion Kerkering (who despite the throwing error in game four of the NLDS, seemed to be throwing the ball better than anyone in that bullpen in the playoffs) and Rule 5 pick Zach McCambley. They also wanted to get Justin Crawford and Andrew Painter clear paths to help this Phillies team this season, something both will have a shot to do as the season goes on, as might Aidan Miller. They checked off all of those boxes. As for external upgrades, something that some fans are screaming about, the Phillies only seriously pursued one, a 27 year old right-handed bat who they offered the top market value for, before a team came in and offered 150% of their deal in average annual value. That gap is simply not something you match. On the whole though, the Phillies very clearly did the three things they felt were necessary to stay as a 90 plus win, playoff team.

I suppose it is too strong to say people screaming that this team is regressing are wrong, but there isn’t a lot of evidence for what they’re saying. Unless you think the aggregate output of Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, and Kyle Schwarber is going to fall off of a cliff, the lineup isn’t going to be a lot worse, and that’s even more true if you believe in Crawford as much as most of us who watched a lot of him in his time in Reading and Allentown do. Suarez hurts, there is no doubt about that, but Painter has been a super prospect for quite a few years now, and is only really being asked to be a fourth or fifth starter to start the season, not to mention the track record is decent for pitchers having big bounce back seasons in their second season back from Tommy John. You’re going to get slightly more Zack Wheeler than last season if he actually comes back in May and is healthy, so unless you think he’ll never be the same, the pitching staff could possibly even improve- and I haven’t even factored in that almost anything Aaron Nola does would be better than what he did in 2025, and possibly by a significant margin. Throw in a very, very good bullpen on paper and I don’t see why people are so down on this team. There’s no real reason to be.

There are two factors that can change their result from a third straight division title and possible postseason contender to a disappointment. The Mets did not improve as much as some people are acting (they lost their one big time power bat and an elite closer), but the Mets probably come about even on talent with last year’s group, and they frankly should have been much better then, as should have the Braves- a roster that has wildly disappointed two straight years and should be elite if they are healthy and click. That may or may not all happen though, and even if both of those teams are very good this year, the odds that there are four NL teams better than the Phillies for the four spots they could possible win (you can’t win the other two divisions) are slim. The thing that could bring down the Phillies is not something you can ever predict exactly- health. Major injuries, particularly to the big difference makers on this roster, could bring them down. That can happen to any team in the league though, the Dodgers included. Nothing in Schwarber, Turner, Sanchez, Luzardo, Duran, Alvarado, Keller, or Kerkering’s seasons last year suggest that they are at health risk or in some kind of decline right now. I’m slightly worried about Wheeler because his injury was serious, but all signs are that he’s progressing well. I’m slightly worried about Harper because he’s been on the IL every season since his NL MVP season in 2021, but he’s also still very productive when playing and frankly we just need him to be that in October. My big worries, if I have any, are really J.T. Realmuto and Aaron Nola. Realmuto was still very good defensively last year, but I’d love to get just a bit more from his bat (he is a catcher, so he doesn’t have to be incredible). Nola has five years left on his deal, and I’d at least like a couple of them to look like his top ten Cy Young finishes. If those two are even just better than last year, the Phillies could be really outstanding.

The Phillies chose to bet a lot on their young guys for this season, and I have always liked that idea. If Crawford and Painter are what we have been lead to hope, and Otto Kemp does well with increased playing time, I can be very excited about this team. I think a lot of fans and Philadelphia-based media are looking for a reason to be worried about this team, knit-picking about the team not going after aging, frankly only modest impact free agents that probably wouldn’t have wildly changed the odds that this team is good. That’s silly and really won’t matter later. Look, I get that Adolis Garcia doesn’t excite some people, but it would be hard for him to actually be worse than Castellanos was in reality last year. You don’t love Alec Bohm? Fine, but don’t act like he’s a plague on the lineup, or whether he hits fourth or sixth is the difference between them winning 96 again or winning 77. These are small matters. The core of the team is the core. How they perform is basically everything.

I’m bullish. Very, very bullish.