Mark Pinsley is running for Congress right now in PA-7, and at least according to Facebook, still has an even scheduled for this weekend. He should keep it up. Of course, the street rumors are churning that Pinsley will soon drop out of the race to run for the 16th District in the PA Senate. The preferred story out there is pretty predictable- that seat is winnable, the writing is on the wall, and he lacks money. Those are all pretty good reasons to make the move, if we’re being honest. The problem is, these stories are like a night club, you can get in, or if you know someone who owns the place, you can really get in. You see, Mark Pinsley is a serious problem for Bob “Crooksy” Brooks, the preferred candidate of the Harrisburg Good Ole’ Boys. They want to make Crooksy the “working class hero” of the left in this race, hence his endorsement from Bernie Sanders, but it’s all fraudulent. A lot of people are realizing that Mark has actually been honestly talking like a leftist populist for a long time. They are going to have to astroturf that kind of movement for Crooksy. So the more juicy version of this story that people who know, but don’t like it, are trying to get out there is this- the 16th State Senate District nomination to take on Jarrett Coleman can be had, if he just moves over to that race, from this one. They may insinuate support or money for that, I’m not privy to that, so it’s not clear.

Look, if in fact Mark can actually go to that race and cleanly clear the field and flip it, then he should do that. That’s not clear though. First, he did lose by nearly 10% last time. Second, this race is going to be anything but clean and clear. The Bucks County Democrats chose to endorse Pennridge School Board Member Bradley Merkl-Gump, who defeated the “Moms for Liberty” slate on that school board in 2023. That endorsement has come under fire by activists and other candidates alike. Lehigh County resident Juan Vargas decided he’s just going to run anyway. Ruby-red Richlandtown Mayor Wayne Codner, a Black veteran winning in deep red territory, is likely to run. And well, the commentary on the endorsement was basically awful in the article. The Red, Wine, and Blue organizer said no one likes it, a Democratic consultant said the party has no idea what they’re doing. This primary is going to be ugly and brutal.

There’s a fairly decent chance that Pinsley can win this primary. He has been the nominee before, he’s an elected official in the county with more voters, and he’s run before. That’s far from a sure thing though. And then there’s the question of whether he should want that. Does he want to run as an anti-establishment candidate against candidates who are literally living the anti-establishment mantra right now? Does he want to win an ugly primary and spend any money he has trying to claw through it? Does he really believe all the state leaders and labor unions saying the seat is open right now are going to fund him at the level he needs to beat a Yass-funded candidate? Yeah, there’s lots of maybes there. Maybes don’t often become yes’s, and they never do when you need a bunch of them in a row.

Yeah, I’m sure everyone is telling him he has no shot to win the Congressional race. I don’t think he’s a favorite or anything. But if he’s going to roll the dice on coming up with a flush here, why not go for more consequential victory?