I feel the need to keep reminding people that the Phillies were actually a 96 win team last year that won their division by a lot. If they’re “running it back,” which they really aren’t, that’s not a bad thing. The Mets maybe improved a bit on paper from last season, but it’s only a bit given the key players they let walk out the door to begin with. The Braves could get bounce back years from some of their best players, but so far in camp they’re losing players to injuries and suspensions. No, the Phillies didn’t sign a ton of new free agents, but given the young talent arriving and the few players they did bring in, I think you have to be trying to find fault with them to not pick them as at least a prohibitive favorite in this division.

Now, with all of that said, you don’t win the division in March. You pick a team in March. The question is, how does this team compare to the 2025 one. That may depend on if we’re talking about the Opening Day team or the playoff team, but the question remains. I’m going to walk through that a bit here.

The Line-Up

SS- Trea Turner

DH- Kyle Schwarber

1B- Bryce Harper

3B- Alec Bohm

LF- Brandon Marsh

RF- Adolis Garcia

C- J.T. Realmuto

2B- Bryson Stott

CF- Justin Crawford

Ok, so absolutely no shocks at all here. My guess is that on days where Otto Kemp is in left instead of Marsh, Garcia and Realmuto will move up and he’ll slot seventh. I’m expecting some regression from Schwarber (I’d be shocked if he hit 56 homers again), but nothing major- he still hits well over 40. I expect a similar season from Turner to last season, at least offensively, but his defense will probably regress. I’m expecting a big season from Bryce Harper, and he’s not off to a break neck pace so far. From there I expect pretty much career norms from four through eight. None are truly bad players, they probably all end up in the range of 2 WAR or better, but none are competing for All-Star nods or MVP’s. Then there’s Justin Crawford. I’m going to keep saying how much I like him, and I think others will eventually join. No, I don’t think he’ll ever hit 30 homers. I do think he’ll continue to grow into a double digit homer guy, and I think you’ll all see that he sprays a lot of extra base hits in the form of doubles and triples. If he’s hitting .300 and swiping 30 plus bags, I think he’s a real asset.

Rotation

LHP Cristopher Sanchez

LHP Jesus Luzardo

RHP Aaron Nola

RHP Taijuan Walker

RHP Andrew Painter

The backbone of this team remains pitching. Sanchez looked rusty in his first WBC start, but looks healthy. Luzardo got paid, and that’s good for everyone. I don’t see Sanchez regressing at all this season. Luzardo did have the best year of his career last year, which makes you think he could, but he also had a half dozen starts that prevented him from contending for the Cy Young, and he could improve on that. The success of this staff is really what happens after those two though. Nola has looked outstanding so far, which has me quite excited. Walker just threw very well for Mexico in the WBC, but I think it’s fair for us all to assume he’s a fifth starter type. Painter has had really, really good results so far. His delivery looks like it did pre-Tommy John, which is really good. He has not missed many bats so far this Spring though, and that is my one pause for concern. As long as one of these three is pretty good and another is a league average five, the staff should be fine though. Zack Wheeler is back throwing bullpens and on target to be pitching by May, meaning he may throw a full month more than last season. Obviously we need to see how he’s doing at that point, but if he’s 85% of the Wheeler we had, the rotation is very, very strong again.

The Bench

C Rafael Marchan

INF Edmundo Sosa

INF/OF Otto Kemp

INF/OF Dylan Moore

I think that Sosa and Kemp are locks to make this team. I think Sosa will continue to be who he has been since he got here in 2022, which is a very good utility player. Kemp is going to get his chance to answer the question of “what he is,” as I think we’ll see him face lefties in left field and accumulate several hundred MLB plate appearances this year. I have Marchan beating out Stubbs for one basic reason- Stubbs can’t hit at all. Neither is going to be an offensive juggernaut, but if you really want 40 or 50 starts from the back-up catcher this year, there’s no responsible way you go with Stubbs. The last spot is a tough one. Topper has said he wants versatility, so I’m taking Moore over Bryan de la Cruz. If I were the GM, I would go the other way. The last guy shouldn’t really get many starts anyway, so I’d rather take the guy I’d be happier with getting plate appearances as a pinch hitter. He also could take some starts in left, though I don’t think the Phillies really want that.

Bullpen

Closer Jhoan Duran

Top Righty Set-Up Man Brad Keller

Top Lefty Set-Up Man Jose Alvarado

Righty Set-Up Man Orion Kerkering

Righty Reliever Jonathan Bowlan

Lefty Reliever Tanner Banks

Lefty Reliever Zach McCambley

Righty Reliever Zach Pop

This seems to be a battle between McCambley, Pop, and Kyle Backhus, with Max Lazar and Seth Johnson on the edges with Lou Trivino and Tim Mayza. I’m taking McCambley and Pop because they have to make the team, or be gone. In the end, they’re going to be throwing mop up innings anyway. The front six in this bullpen are going to be very good. Remember last year, with Romano, Alvarado, and Strahm opening the season as your top three arms? Keep your eye on Bowlan, who appears to be a late bloomer. Last year as a rookie, he was one of the top rookies in opponent batting average. He can give you length and he’s good at limiting solid contact. I’m expecting good things.

Next time out I’ll try and predict the IronPigs as well. I’m not sure how or why people are looking at this roster and predicting a huge drop off from last year’s 96 wins? The Braves are a busted mess and the Mets bullpen will kill them, assuming they don’t miss Pete Alonso too much first. This team basically looks like they’re as better as Crawford and Painter make them, and I think that was always the plan. The Phillies have refused to move these prospects for several years, waiting for this point. I think they’ll be pleasantly rewarded for that.