I mostly stay out of social media posting about the PA-7 race for Congress. Here is the truth- no one reads it. Now before you say there are dozens of replies on posts about the race, let me just remind you that somewhere around 62,000 or so people are going to vote in this *primary*. Charitably there’s a few hundred total Democratic activists in this district, if you add up all three (I guess technically four) county committees and Lehigh Valley 4 All. In fact, add in the DSA folks and WFP, and we’re still talking a few hundred. The same people are at all the forums and all the debates. The truth is that they’ve been talking among themselves for a few weeks now. Even months. Most voters are only beginning to engage.

Privately though, I’ve had several people ask me why I think Ryan Crosswell is picking up endorsements right now from local folks. What do they like about a guy who was a Republican through the 2024 election, and at least from the records I viewed, failed to return his ballot for the 2024 General Election (so much for the theory that he had converted without converting)? The guy voted in Republican primaries in 2016 and 2020 (I’d love to know who he voted for in 2016). He voted as a Republican in the 2012 primary and general election in swing North Carolina. I mean, let’s be honest, the guy voted for Mitt Romney, then either voted for Trump or some other dipshit in the 2016 primaries (Does it matter if it was Rubio, Cruz, or any other clown in the group?), then probably voted for Trump in the 2016 and 2020 General Elections. He stayed Republican through all of that, through the fall of Roe v. Wade, January 6th, “Grab ’em by the pussy,” and every other Trump embarrassment along the way, until he saw an open Congressional seat in a good Democratic year, that was at least within 30 to 45 minutes of where he grew up. He worked at a union busting law firm. The guy is a moderate Republican. Look, that’s better than being Ryan Mackenzie, or worse yet, being a guy that stiffed his mother-in-law out of tens of thousands of dollars that multiple courts said he owes her. But let’s not lie about who he is.

All of that said, I do think this is an interesting question- why are there Democratic activists running in late in the game to endorse the guy with the least Democratic bona fides in the field? You have three other people who are running, and while Crooksy has been anything but a strong advocate for the party as a union President, Obando-Derstine literally worked for a Democratic U.S. Senator (who voted like a Democrat) and McClure spent his career advocating for steelworkers exposed to asbestos and serving as a solid Democratic elected official. So why not them? Specifically, with the Governor and some socialists running around telling everyone to get behind Bob “Crooksy” Brooks, why are these activists defying them and backing a lifelong Republican? I’ll answer this in two bullets:

• Crooksy is not what Democratic activists want. He doesn’t represent the coalition of college educated suburbanites, particularly women, that nominated and elected Susan Wild. The “white blue collar voters” that he claims he can bring back, largely living in the Valley’s boroughs and towns outside of the cities, are Republicans now. They aren’t voting in this race. There is no audience for this among activists. To the extent he has labor support, it’s SEIU and the fire fighters trying to push him through, and unions who largely have no footprint in the Valley, and very few votes in the district. This is why his supporters are trying to win this with endorsements and spending from outside groups. Their sell to Democratic primary voters, let alone activists, is do this because Josh Shapiro/Pete Buttigieg/Bernie Sanders say it’s a good idea. The guy is as impressive as two week old bread on his own.
• Crosswell’s story, however made up, mirrors a reality that Democrats want to believe is real. Crosswell is a moderate Republican, highly educated, white collar professional, and veteran who decided Trump went too far and left the Republican Party for the good of the country- at least that’s the made up spin his consultants are selling here. That’s exactly what a lot of Democratic activists have spent the last ten years trying to manifest into existence. Of course this is fictional because Crosswell was planning his run for years (he bought his websites long before Eric Adams was even heading to trial), and because of the reality that Trump actually got more votes and a higher percentage with each run for President that he made. There wasn’t a mass exodus from the GOP, nor will there really be. It’s possible they get killed in 2026, like they did in 2018 (I don’t think it will look exactly the same), but in 2028 the GOP nominee won’t suddenly fall to 42% of the vote or something unless it’s somehow a three way race, and then the Democrat won’t get Kamala’s 48% either. Crosswell is a confirmation bias candidate though, one who tells the story that a lot of activists want to hear.

Now, I know exactly what someone is going to say- but Lehigh Valley 4 All is literally an activist organization and backed Crooksy. Yes. It’s a membership required organization to vote (so the most interested parties you can find) and probably has the highest quantity of Bernie and/or Warren 2020 primary voters of any group (most of the standard committee people followed all the electeds who did endorse to Biden). But this also gets to my main, second point, in this article.

None of this means a damn thing.

Out of the 62k or so voters I estimate will vote, almost none of them will ever go to a forum or debate. In fact, let’s be honest, almost none of them are even going to watch taped debates on TV. I’d venture a guess that like 60k voters will never see these candidates campaign. Probably a similar number are not engaging any of the candidates on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, or any other social media. They’ll see their mail. They’ll see their TV ads. They’ll read their text messages. They’ll probably see digital ads. Most of them aren’t involved in the “invisible primary” though, and don’t care much about it. This is what gives a dud like Crooksy a shot. A six figure ad buy meant not to necessarily convince you that he’s better than anyone else (he’s not), but to convince you that even though he’s never been on the ballot or served the public, he’s favored because some folks not from here like him. Not that you like him, or have history with him. He solves the imaginary (and unsolvable) problem of bringing voters to the Democratic Party who have been voting Republican for 60 years now. And Pete Buttigieg and Josh Shapiro are telling you that.

The ads may not buy Crooksy this race. Crosswell has money too. My guess is both would still lose to McClure if the primary was held today. That could definitely change with weeks to go, but that’s kind of the point. There’s a maximum of around 300 committee people in Northampton and Lehigh County each (those seats are never filled). The months of outreach to those people is great and all, but not really indicative of anything. Even the door knocking they can do as supporters, it’s good and it’s helpful, but it takes such an overwhelming amount of that to matter. For perspective, we were sending several hundred shifts of door knocking out *a day* in the 2020 Georgia Senate runoff in just Cobb County (Atlanta metro) where I was. Honestly, short of that, you’re leaving stones unturned, and that costs cash.

Well, only a little over a month left now. We’ll see what voters get to see, and what they decide matters. I doubt it will be endorsements, unless they see them a lot.