Well, baseball season is about half over. The last time I did a power ranking was Memorial Day. Seeing as it’s almost the 4th of July, and the season is now about half over, it seems time for another. Several teams have fired their managers. The results have been mixed. Even as those teams made changes, some things remained constant- the Dodgers having the best record in baseball. The Brewers, Braves, Phillies, Cubs, and Padres as the predictable teams in pursuit in the NL. Meanwhile the AL is like 2/3 terrible. Some things make perfect sense. Others are just plain weird.
First thing I’ll do here is the rankings. Then I’ll give you my postseason projection for both leagues. Here was my last power rankings and pre-season predictions.
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Milwaukee Brewers
- Atlanta Braves
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Philadelphia Phillies
- New York Yankees
- Chicago Cubs
- Chicago White Sox
- Cleveland Guardians
- San Diego Padres
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Miami Marlins
- Washington Nationals
- Texas Rangers
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- Seattle Mariners
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- Houston Astros
- Sacramento Athletics
- Minnesota Twins
- Cincinnati Reds
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Baltimore Orioles
- Boston Red Sox
- San Francisco Giants
- Detroit Tigers
- New York Mets
- Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
- Kansas City Royals
- Colorado Rockies
Okay, so a lot of changes there from last time. The top four from last time are all re-arranged, but still right there. The Guardians, Yankees, Padres, and Cubs are all still top ten teams. The Phillies and White Sox are charging up the board though. The Cardinals have only lost a little steam, while Arizona has dropped off a bit, but remains alive. All told, I would tell you right now that the top 22 teams still have a realistic shot, while 23 and 24 are alive because the American League is hot garbage. After that, these teams should be sellers unless something changes in a hurry. The reality is that some of the teams I’m not calling sellers yet will end up as sellers soon.
So then, how do we separate real contenders from pretenders on this list? To be clear, this is a ranking of their performance so far this season, not a ranking of how I think these teams will end up. For instance, I think Washington has had a generally pretty nice season, but I doubt their starting staff will keep them at .500 for the long haul. Pittsburgh is having a pretty nice season, but do you buy that lineup? Meanwhile Seattle is a huge disappointment, as is Cincinnati and Toronto, but I think all of those teams will chip their way back into the race this season. Most of how I make these judgments is how I feel about starting pitching staffs and late inning relief corps, but I do look at lineups too. For the most part, if you don’t have enough starting pitching, it probably won’t end well for you. I don’t care how much you hit, if you can’t limit the other team’s lineup for the first six innings of a game most of the time, you’ll end up losing more and more as the season goes on, and the innings pile up on your arms.
If I had to predict the National League right now, I’d say two teams make the playoffs from each division- Atlanta, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Chicago, Los Angeles, and San Diego. I would give the best odds of breaking that group up to Arizona, Cincinnati, Miami, and Pittsburgh. St. Louis and Washington are really nice stories, but I think their rotations will hit a wall. In the American League, I’m honestly struggling to count to six. I have the Yankees, Guardians, Mariners, Tampa, Toronto, and Houston right now, with the White Sox obviously as the best positioned team to break through, and Texas as well. I don’t really trust Minnesota and Sacramento to pitch well enough. As I say all of that though, how the hell can I trust Toronto and Houston, given what we’ve seen. If I were being honest about the eye test, I’d be saying Chicago and Texas, but I am still giving some credit for recent success.
Only half a season to go.
Apocalypse Vibes 