We are 20 days from the 2026 Election. Here is my updated predictions, as of right now.

U.S. Senate- Democrats +5, capturing the Senate with 52 votes. They flip North Carolina, Ohio, Alaska, Texas, and Maine. I think the race in Iowa ends up in a coin flip, but the GOP hangs on by a couple of decimal points. I think the winds of anger help Democrats hang on to Michigan and Minnesota in fairly close races, while New Hampshire goes by about 4 points, and Georgia goes comfortably. I think Democratic expansion targets like Kansas, Florida, Mississippi, and Arkansas all fall short by single digits *in that order).

U.S. House- Democrats need to flip 4 seats. They will flip 4 seats. Put a gun to my head right now and I’d tell you the exact number is 14 or 15 seats to the net positive in the end. Cook and Sabato seem to agree that 213 or 214 seats, basically what the Dems have now, are safe. The rest of the battle is mostly on offensive terrain for the Democrats. I am saying Democrats hold most of their embattled seats that aren’t long gone from redistricting, and win about 60% of the GOP’s seats in play. On the high side, maybe this wave reaches 20. That’s a far cry from 2018. This Democratic Party isn’t super popular itself though. Re-districting changes took a pretty good chunk of seats and made many safer than they were. And well, in the end, 20 even bets on all of the Dem candidates with issues not shitting the bed. For what it’s worth, they have PA-7 and NJ-7 as Lean Democrats, PA-8 as a toss-up, and PA-1 as Lean Republican right now. I’d predict Bennett to win NJ-7 by 5% and Brooks to win PA-7 by 2-3%. So candidate quality is playing a factor in those results.

I’ll add that I think Governor Shapiro wins by 21% and the Democrats win 25 State Senate seats *on the dot*, flipping the chamber. But I could easily be dissuaded down to 24.