Well, it’s Election Day 2026. The expectation among most pundits is a Democratic landslide. You have a polarizing Republican President, an economy most of the public hates, an unpopular war, and a Republican trifecta in Washington, DC. Democrats are hoping for a 2006 or 2018 sized wave (very different things). Some pundits are making comparisons to 1994 and 2010 sized waves.

Presidential Elections can sometimes be about oversized personalities. Midterms are more so blocking and tackling. There are three basic components- persuasion of the 5-10% of the electorate who are at all persuadable, turning out your voters, and how your opponent does turning out their’s. I think the Democrats probably won the first two pretty well. The variable today, for me, is how Republicans do with Republicans. Many of the people who voted for Trump are clearly disappointed, hence an approval rating in the 30’s for a candidate who got 49% plus in 2024. If somewhere between 20% and 40% of GOP voters are unhappy with their President, that can manifest itself in two ways- Republicans voting Democratic and Republicans not voting at all. If we really get those kinds of numbers, tonight could be a cataclysmic event for the Republican Party. If the number is more like 10% or less, it’s just a normal loss of 15-20 House seats and a regular midterm.

I’m going to operate off of Nate Silvers D+9.3% generic ballot here for a moment as I do my predictions. Here we go.

Governors

Just using Nate’s number, NINE Republican Governors should be replaced by Democrats, while Democrats won’t lose a single state. I am not that bullish for Democrats. I am predicting Democrats to flip Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, Georgia, Nevada, and Vermont, and Republicans to flip Kansas. That would give Democrats a +5 night in Governor races. This would tilt the current 26-24 GOP split to a 29-21 split for the Democrats. More locally here, I’m calling Josh Shapiro a 60-38% winner in a major blowout.

U.S. Senate

Going into tonight, the GOP has a 53-47 edge, meaning Democrats need to flip four seats to flip the Senate. I feel relatively good about how Democrats will do overall, but this is the hardest lift for them tonight because almost every competitive race is in a state that leans or is substantially conservative. I expect the Democrats to cruise to victory in most of their competitive holds. Georgia will be a substantial win, and believe it or not, I believe Michigan and New Hampshire will be fairly early calls for the Democrats as well (this is not commentary on my opinion on El-Sayed, it’s analysis). The only seat I think might make Democrats sweat on their list of holds is Minnesota, where it seems that Tim Walz’s unpopularity is really dragging his Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan a bit. Even so, I think she wins by 3-5%.

That takes us to the flips, which I believe will be much harder. Roy Cooper will flip North Carolina tonight, and probably fairly early. From there? Maine is the best seat on the board, by the numbers, for Democrats tonight. If Troy Jackson gets to 50% on first choice, that will be it. If not? I don’t like him in the ranked choice vote as much. Susan Collins stunned everyone with how easily she won in a much more neutral environment in 2020. My super pac gave money to Jackson, so I’m invested here, for many reasons. I’m going to say he eeks out a narrow win over Collins because that’s how blue tonight will be. I think.

That would put Democrats at +2, already as good as anyone hoped for a year ago. After that? It gets tough. Florida was the next best state by the numbers, and well, I don’t think we got the right candidate. I think this again, comes down to GOP turnout for themselves tonight. Ohio, Texas, and Iowa are the next best three, followed by Alaska, South Carolina, and Kansas. I like Democrats to win Texas, Iowa, Alaska, and Kansas out of the group. I feel like I can’t trust Ohio and South Carolina. I believe you’ll be up all night watching Louisiana and Mississippi tonight, much to many peoples surprise. With a +6 night, I’m calling the Senate 53-47 for the Democrats and erstwhile returning Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. John Fetterman be damned, nobody gives a shit if you switch parties tomorrow after this. If the GOP voters don’t show, this could be considerably worse for them, with Florida, Louisiana, and Mississippi all possibly going, Nebraska maybe being close, and Ohio and South Carolina going easy.

More locally here, I have Cory Booker winning New Jersey by something like 20%. Not a race.

U.S. House

Ok, full disclosure here- If you just take the generic ballot at RealClearPolitics D+8.8 and put it over the PVI (Partisan Voting Index), Dems pick up 56 seats. Take Nate Silver’s 9.3 and it’s 57. Republicans win one Democratic seat at 9.3 and three if it’s 8.8. So the numbers say it’s between 53 and 56 seats going tonight. I am not that bullish, but…

I am predicting that the Democrats lose six seats tonight. I am also predicting that the Democrats win 46 seats tonight. You can do the hard math there, but I am predicting the Democrats win 40 seats and hold 254 seats in the House tomorrow, making all conversations about Hakeem Jeffries struggling to get the votes to be speaker to rest. He will be the Speaker of the House and the unhappy Democrats will grin and bare it.

Locally, yes I am predicting a 5-7% win for Bob “Crooksy” Brooks, and wins for Bob Harvie, Paige Cognetti, and Janelle Stelson on this side of the river, and I am predicting an easy win for Rebecca Bennett in NJ-7. My upset special of the night to be in NJ-2- Jeff Van Drew gets swept aside in the tide. Fitting.

PA Senate

I’ll keep this simple and short- my prediction is 26-24 GOP. I am predicting the flip SD-36 and hang on by a hair in SD-16 and SD-40, while Democrats flip SD-6 and SD-24. So James Malone, Mark Pinsley, and Brian Wrightson will decide everything No pressure or anything.

Lisa Boscola wins by 14% and Nick Miller by 10%. Never a doubt.

Follow all along with my work here- https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eZ8Ow09zY-KNt59PAIvlcq3KurwIFqMgavLnJe1n8sc/edit?gid=223769547#gid=223769547