An Updated Look at the Phillies Off-Season

The Winter meetings are over. The Phillies have what appears to be an outfield. The core of their lineup- Harper, Schwarber, and Turner- is sticking around together for the next five years. They have built a very strong bullpen, probably an over abundance of quality arms there even. The Phillies have 37 players now on the 40 man roster, and a current projected payroll of $288,258,771. I am including all guaranteed contracts, projected arbitration numbers from MLBTradeRumors.com, and filling in currently unfilled roster spots with young players on the 40 man roster.

Here’s a look at the current projected 26 man roster.

Catcher- Rafael Marchan ($1,000,000) and Garrett Stubbs ($925,000). $1,925,000

Infield- Bryce Harper- 1B ($25,384,615), Bryson Stott- 2B ($5,800,000), Trea Turner- SS ($27,272,727), Alec Bohm- 3B ($10,300,000), Edmundo Sosa- Utility Man ($3,900,000), and Otto Kemp ($820,000). $73,477,342

Outfield- Adolis Garcia- RF ($10,000,000), Justin Crawford- CF ($820,000, not yet on the roster), Brandon Marsh- LF ($4,500,000), and Johan Rojas ($820,000). $16,140,000

Designated Hitter- Kyle Schwarber ($30,000,000). $30,000,000

Starting Rotation– Cristopher Sanchez- LHP ($5,625,000), Zack Wheeler- RHP ($42,000,000), Jesus Luzardo- LHP ($10,400,000), Aaron Nola- RHP ($24,571,429), and Taijuan Walker- RHP ($18,000,000). $100,596,429

Bullpen– Jhoan Duran- RRP ($7,600,000), Jose Alvarado- LRP ($9,000,000), Brad Keller- RRP ($11,000,000), Matt Strahm- LRP ($7,500,000), Orion Kerkering- RRP ($820,000), Tanner Banks- LRP ($1,200,000), Zach McCambley– RRP ($820,000), and Max Lazar- RRP ($820,000). $46,120,000

Untraded Contract- Nick Castellanos ($20,000,000). $20,000,000

Additional 40 man roster players (All are pro-rated $820,000 deals)– Jean Cabrera- RSP, Moises Chase- RSP, Yoniel Curet– RSP, Nolan Hoffman- RRP, Seth Johnson- RRP, Alex McFarlane- RSP, Andrew Painter- RSP, Alan Rangel- RSP, Pedro Leon- OF, Gabriel Rincones- OF, Weston Wilson- OF

So there are a number of additions here, some that are exciting, some that are just upgrades. Obviously with Schwarber back, the DH spot is filled and the Phillies have two feared home run threats from the left side. Garcia had a season roughly equivalent to Castellanos offensively, but he was a considerably better defensive outfielder, so he represents an upgrade- even if another one year, reclamation project has serious shades of Max Kepler written on it. The signing of Brad Keller gives the Phillies a formidable front six in their bullpen to shut down games behind a very talented starting pitching group. McCambley comes over from Miami, via the Rule 5 draft, coming off of his best season in the minors for AAA Jacksonville, featuring a wipeout slider that generates a lot of swing and miss. The Phillies also snagged Yoniel Curet from Tampa Bay after he was a 40 man roster casualty. At 24, with a very live arm, he could turn into a starter or reliever with some tweaks and work. The Phillies also signed Bryse Wilson to a minor league deal as a potential swing man.

So with three open 40 man spots, what’s next? The obvious glaring, immediate need is a catcher. The Phillies made an offer to J.T. Realmuto last week according to reports, and he hasn’t signed yet. I’m guessing they offered him two years and he wants three. They certainly could wait him out and hope he comes back, which is probably the best case scenario. They could also search the trade market and see if there’s a catcher who comes at a lower price than the estimated $12-15 million a year that Realmuto is likely to get.

They do need to trade Nick Castellanos. He now has no real purpose on this roster and needs a fresh start. If the Phillies are willing to eat enough money, I do think teams like Cleveland, Miami, and St. Louis could be destinations for him to go serve as a fourth outfielder and DH option for them. There’s not really any urgency to get that done though, at least not yet.

Zack Wheeler is going to begin the season rehabbing, and I don’t think the Phillies can really afford to just roll with Walker and Painter potentially ending up making over 20 starts each this season. Walker is fine as a fifth starter or swing man, and the Phillies could eat some of his money to send him to a team looking for a more affordable guy to play that role. There is a lot of smoke to the rumors of the Phillies having interest in Tatsuya Imai, though reports today say the Cubs and Yankees are likely to be finalists for the Japanese ace as well. Of course there is Ranger Suarez as well, but the Phillies are unlikely to meet his market in the $25-30 million range unless they move other money off the books. Even so, the Phillies should still be talking to him.

Dave Dombrowski says the Phillies outfield is probably done for now. I tend to believe him. Bellinger and Tucker are the big impact outfield bats still available, and both are left handed. If things stay as is, Garcia will be in right, Crawford in center, and Marsh in left, with Rojas serving as the fourth outfielder. The Phillies will probably want a right-handed option to play against lefties for Marsh, and the internal candidates are Otto Kemp, Weston Wilson, Edmundo Sosa, and Pedro Leon (I suppose you could argue for Castellanos too since you’re going to pay him anyway, but that ship has sailed). I wouldn’t be shocked if the Phillies kick the tires on a Rob Refsnyder type of option as well. He and Marsh would form an ideal platoon and allow the Phillies to stash Rojas away in AAA for another year. I also would not totally dismiss a reunion with Harrison Bader yet. The Phillies could take him back later in the off-season on a shorter deal, move Crawford over to left for now, and trade Marsh to teams looking for a left handed outfield option. While the Phillies clearly like Marsh, they have not liked him enough to extend him yet, and only control him for two more seasons.

If there were to be an area of the team where there could still be major upheaval, I would say it is in the infield. There are still some impact free agents who don’t hit from the left side. Alex Bregman could be a great fit, the question is how much money and how long of a deal he wants, and if the Phillies can move enough money off the books to even consider it. I’d say it’s possible, but it’s a long shot. Eugenio Suarez is projected to get three years and roughly $70-75 million total, a number more in line with what the Phillies would probably like, but they may be weary of doing so at his age (34). Kazuma Okamoto, the 29 year old Japanese slugger who primarily (but not exclusively) plays third base is very intriguing, and seems to be a low risk, high reward option, but his market seems very uncertain between now and the end of his posting period on January 4th. 25 year old Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami is probably the most intriguing option out of the third base crowd, with his prodigious power and complaints about his struggles against high velocity. His market seems even less certain than Okamoto’s. Bo Bichette is a less obvious fit as a shortstop, but he could probably slot in at second or third and provide the major right handed bat the Phillies desire. He’s going to cost a lot though. Nolan Arrenado doesn’t seem like a fit unless the Phillies have another major move somewhere else, and are getting him in a trade involving Castellanos and Bohm.

Even if the Phillies sign none of those infielders, I would still guess that Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott can be had in a trade for the right price. The Phillies top offensive prospect, Aidan Miller, ended the season in AAA. He’s probably not going to be the shortstop in Philly, so he’s either going to second or third at some point this season. Bohm is in his walk year and there are no signs of him being extended, hence all the interest in third basemen on the market. Stott has two more years of control, but also doesn’t seem to be in line for an extension, and Miller could be ready to play his way into that spot at any time. There’s also all of the Ketel Marie rumors, and while I think he’s really good, he’s 32 and makes $19.4 million for the next five years (six if he opts into the $11.5 million final year).

I don’t think the Phillies off-season is nearly done, and so far I think I approve overall of it. Garcia doesn’t blow me away as an outfield signing, but an outfield that ends up consisting of him, Crawford, and probably Marsh is better and cheaper moving forward. The bullpen looks stacked, and now you just have to wonder if they will listen to offers on Strahm. I think it’s clear that a player, or players, will be traded away besides Castellanos, even if the only major addition left is a Realmuto signing. An additional right handed bat would really be huge though, particularly if they want to improve their odds against the Dodgers.

NFL Power Rankings, 12/16

How ’bout them Cowboys?

Ok, now that I got that out of my system, the NFL made sense of itself this weekend. The overwhelming majority of the league is now either in, out, or damn near out. Kansas City is eliminated and no longer has to be treated as a threat. Dallas did what Dallas does. Miami’s mini run is over and they’re done. Cincinnati is finished. Meanwhile Tampa tried to hand the division away, but Carolina handed it back. Buffalo is in fact not dead, and Denver is on it’s way to home field. Things make sense now. Mostly. Jacksonville makes no sense, but we’ll see where things are in a couple of weeks.

On to the rankings.

12/9 rankings. 12/3 rankings. 11/26 rankings. 11/18 rankings11/11 rankings11/4 rankings10/28 rankings10/21 rankings10/15 rankings10/8 rankings9/30 rankings9/24 rankings9/16 rankings9/9 rankings.

  1. Denver Broncos
  2. Los Angeles Rams
  3. Seattle Seahawks
  4. New England Patriots
  5. Buffalo Bills
  6. Jacksonville Jaguars
  7. San Francisco 49’ers
  8. Chicago Bears
  9. Green Bay Packers
  10. Los Angeles Chargers
  11. Houston Texans
  12. Philadelphia Eagles
  13. Pittsburgh Steelers
  14. Baltimore Ravens
  15. Detroit Lions
  16. Indianapolis Colts
  17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  18. Carolina Panthers
  19. Minnesota Vikings
  20. Dallas Cowboys
  21. Atlanta Falcons
  22. Miami Dolphins
  23. Kansas City Chiefs
  24. Cincinnati Bengals
  25. New Orleans Saints
  26. Washington Commanders
  27. Cleveland Browns
  28. New York Jets
  29. Arizona Cardinals
  30. New York Giants
  31. Tennessee Titans
  32. Las Vegas Raiders

Terminally Online People and Their Half Baked Plans to Make Donald Trump Go Away

I don’t like remembering December of 2016, but I think we all remember the SNL skit where Hillary Clinton showed up at the homes of electors and tried to convince them to vote against Donald Trump in the electoral college. One could certainly laugh at the skit, and one could even empathize with the shock many people felt after Trump won- I mean, he got less votes and won the election. If you go back and watch the speech, even Trump looked shocked when he came out to declare victory. The whole thing was surreal at the time. It was still absolutely batshit that people though the electoral college would be faithless enough to defeat the candidate they pledged their support to. It was a super long shot in 2000 when Al Gore needed less than five, and that wasn’t happening in 2016.

The problem with this is that it never ended though. People thought the Russian interference in our elections and every other scandal “would be the end of him.” When he was defeated in 2020, they wanted him punished for the very real wrongs he had done. Even now, they hope there is some early way out. The truth is that there never was. The even more real truth is that for most Americans, it was never really a priority.

I came across a tweet that angered me quite a bit. It’s tone deaf. There are truly a class of people in Washington who think that the top concern of most people is imprisoning Trump. You can read it here:

Basically the thought here is that Joe Biden, after receiving 81 million votes, should have made it his priority to prosecute and jail the guy he just defeated. Not stop Covid, revitalize the economy, expand health care, invest in green energy, or really any of the stuff he told people he would do. Never mind that the crimes committed in New York and Georgia were state crimes, never mind the need to investigate whatever involvement Trump actually had in January 6th, never mind that the Florida case hadn’t even happened yet, never mind that while Mueller found that Russia did interfere in the 2016 Election, there was no two party conspiracy, and never mind that neither impeachment ended in a conviction- lock him up. Look, do I think he did a lot of this stuff? Yes, and he was convicted in a state of doing it. The idea that someone was going to lock him in Leavenworth and we’d never hear from him again was nuts though. That locking the guy in Leavenworth, or Minersville, or whatever other crazy place you wanted him locked up in, should have been the top priority, well that’s just insane.

Yes, I’d love it if Donald Trump was gone from American politics. The reality though is that he’ll be gone when he’s done being President- which the Constitution clearly says will be January 20th, 2029, but don’t get too comfortable with this Supreme Court. In all seriousness, Trump and Trumpism will probably only be gone when the American people are ready to move on to something else. They will. They moved on from Obama, from Clinton, from Bush, from Reagan, from Nixon, from Eisenhower, from Truman, and even eventually from FDR’s politics (he of course was dead).

I stopped watching cable news a few years back, almost entirely, and it’s the best thing I ever did. I built a nice following on Twitter and other social media a few years back for my political opinions, but the truth is that I think that world is too segregated from normal society now. People only talk to people like them, then think the world is like them. Most people are much more mad that groceries and gas cost a lot than they are that Trump says mean and insensitive things. No, he’s not being hauled off to The Hague, or impeached and removed, or prosecuted, or any of that. Most people don’t care either. If you tell them this is your priority, they think you’re nuts. This is truly a level of strange that I think has infected most politically active people.

The Governor’s Endorsement of Crooksy is all About 2028 Politics

Josh Shapiro endorsed Bob “Crooksy” Brooks for Congress yesterday. The comments on the article’s Facebook page were brutal. I announced this a while back, I guess the Governor just wanted to put it out there at a time of year when less people were paying attention. I wonder why, why, why, why, why, and why he would want to do that?

If Bob Brooks is the nominee of the Democratic Party in PA-7, Republicans will swamp him with negative ads defining him as a deadbeat who took money from his mother-in-law and expresses racist beliefs on social media. In any normal time, I’d say that’s disqualifying, but there are a lot of people who would vote for O.J. Simpson if he ran on their party’s ticket right now. Even so, Crooksy is really the only candidate with a strong general election negative to run against, and Republicans are open that they feel most confident they can beat him. They’ll use his personal baggage, his endorsement from Bernie Sanders and other radical left wingers, and even negatives from his career that they have waiting to use. Democrats can’t afford that. Ryan Crosswell is completely unacceptable, but probably can win a general election, if you’re willing to vote for a Republican. There are three Democrats actually from the Lehigh Valley who are Democrats running in this race. We never needed the DCCC to mess this race up with this guy, but sure enough, it happened.

There’s absolutely no evidence that Crooksy brings anything to the table as a candidate, but that’s not what this is about. He raised $300k last quarter? So did like everyone across the river in NJ-7. Any candidate that gets nominated will raise plenty in the general election, and have PACs you’ve never heard of spending on their behalf. All that any of these folks endorsing him cares about is, he is the President of the IAFF’s Pennsylvania organization and the IAFF is really damn good at politics. When the IAFF backs a candidate for President, that candidate usually wins the Democratic nomination, at a minimum. The Governor wants the IAFF to support him in future campaigns, such as for Governor in 2026 and for President in 2028, and let’s be honest, one is more critical right now than the other. It’s very clear this is why this endorsement is happening, and anyone saying otherwise is a liar. Let’s be honest here, otherwise there’s no other reason to step into a competitive primary. Months ago, everyone claimed they would stay out. Plenty of people have appealed to the Governor directly and his insiders, pleading with them to not endorse this guy. None of that mattered, because this isn’t about this race. It’s about 2028.

I know this is an inconvenient truth to publish, but it’s a truth nonetheless. If I was worried about backlash for saying it, I wouldn’t have started in on Crooksy. I knew this from the start and made the decision on my own to write it. I’ve brought the receipts since day one. Frankly, I haven’t wrote the worst stuff, and probably won’t. Unions and elected officials are being pressured from the good ole’ boys club in Harrisburg to fall in line, to crush a primary here. I’m not invested enough in anyone’s success to play that game.

They Should Have Left the Government Shut Down.

Last week the Senate failed to extend subsidies for people buying health care on the Affordable Care Act Exchanges. This week?

Friday’s proposal from House Republicans includes measures that would allow small businesses to join together to buy insurance plans for their employees and put in place new requirements for pharmacy benefit managers in an effort to lower drug costs.

Starting in 2027, federal payments, known as cost-sharing reduction payments, would aim to lower premiums for some low-income Americans. Health plans that provide abortion coverage would be excluded.

A vote on the package is expected next week, House Speaker Mike Johnson said.

“House Republicans are tackling the real drivers of health care costs to provide affordable care, increase access and choice, and restore integrity to our nation’s health care system for all Americans,” Johnson said in a statement.

Democratic House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries blasted the proposal Saturday.

“Mike Johnson just released a toxic Republican Healthcare plan that hurts everyday Americans,” Jeffries wrote on X. “It fails to extend the ACA tax credits that expire this month. And is a deeply unserious proposal.”

This is a joke. Sure, let employers buy together, but what does that do for people who are buying their own health insurance? The answer is nothing. For people like me, who buy their coverage at full price, this will mean not only do I get hit with higher 2026 premiums, but when millions drop their coverage in 2026, my premiums will skyrocket again in 2027. Health care costs the least when the most number of people are able to pay for their care, or are insured. House Republicans actively are plotting to harm that. Why? Some sort of stubborn insistence on free markets? I doubt it. They simply don’t want the government to provide anything, so they can cut taxes more for wealthy people. At this point, it’s clear their goal is no income taxes at all.

This did not have to happen. The decision by Chuck Schumer to send Tim Kaine, Dick Durbin, John Fetterman, Jeanne Shaheen, Maggie Hassan, Angus King, Catherine Cortez Masto, and Jackie Rosen over to vote to end the government shutdown without even this small concession from Republicans will essentially do massive damage to the American health care system. If Republicans were going to re-open the government without these subsidies, Democrats should have forced them to end the filibuster to do it. Let them have the blood on their hands. Instead Democrats gave them a way out of their own mess, and we all know it was approved by their leader, because they gave just enough votes to get it done. Senate Democrats basically own this mess as much as Trump’s GOP, which is utterly embarrassing for a party whose crowning achievement of the last 20 years was a health care system that insured over 20 million people who were previously uninsured.

We really need to get rid of John Fetterman in 2028, by the way.