MLB Power Rankings, 10/6

A week ago I wrote up my rankings with 12 teams alive. Today, four of them are eliminated. Another is down 2-0. Two others are down 1-0. As I write this, the rankings are tremendously shook up by those facts, and MLB’s “second season” is a totally different world than we were living in a week ago. Teams #13-30 won’t be changing until free agency and other things happen. In the playoffs though, the world changes fast and furiously for those taking part.

Here is this week’s rankings:

  1. The Milwaukee Brewers
  2. The Toronto Blue Jays
  3. The Los Angeles Dodgers
  4. The Detroit Tigers
  5. The Seattle Mariners
  6. The Philadelphia Phillies
  7. The Chicago Cubs
  8. The New York Yankees
  9. The Cleveland Guardians
  10. The San Diego Padres
  11. The Boston Red Sox
  12. The Cincinnati Reds
  13. The Houston Astros
  14. The New York Mets
  15. The Kansas City Royals
  16. The Texas Rangers
  17. The San Francisco Giants
  18. The Arizona Diamondbacks
  19. The Miami Marlins
  20. The St. Louis Cardinals
  21. The Tampa Bay Rays
  22. The Oakland Athletics
  23. The Atlanta Braves
  24. The Baltimore Orioles
  25. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
  26. The Pittsburgh Pirates
  27. The Minnesota Twins
  28. The Washington Nationals
  29. The Chicago White Sox
  30. The Colorado Rockies

As was the case last week for teams #13-30, this is the end of the line for teams #9-12. Teams #6-8 are currently trailing in their series, and if that holds, next week will be their last new ranking, as it will be for whoever loses #4-5. At the end of the playoffs I’ll re-rank #3-12 based on opinion, but it probably won’t change a lot.

9/29 rankings. 9/22 rankings. 9/15 rankings. 9/8 rankings. 9/3 rankings. 8/25 rankings. 8/18 rankings. 8/11 rankings.

Sometimes the Hardest Part is Getting Noticed

There will be millions of dollars spent on Pennsylvania’s judiciary this year. Millions will be spent on the Supreme Court’s retention race, where simply vote yes or no on each of the three incumbents (I recommend yes). The same will be said for the Superior Court and Commonwealth seats up for retention this year. There will be at least a few hundred grand spent on races for new seats on the Superior and Commonwealth Court as well. Here in the Lehigh Valley there is a singular seat on the Court of Common Pleas in both counties that is being competitively contested. All of these races will get plenty of attention and will stir up people’s emotions, just as races for County Executive, County Council, and municipal office will.

You know what hopefully doesn’t get you all hot and bothered this year? Retention votes for the Court of Common Pleas in Northampton County. Judge Paula Roscioli and Judge Sam Murray are both up for retention this year. Judge Roscioli has been on for 20 years. Judge Murray has been on for ten years. Both come highly recommended for another term by basically every lawyer I know in the county. They’re qualified, they’re competent, neither has done anything stupid or embarrassing to the community up there. Their colleagues speak highly of them. Give them another term.

Now here’s the only reason I’m writing about this- voting on these questions can be confusing. First off, the retention votes aren’t on the same part of the ballot as the votes for open judicial seats, so you have to go and find them and vote yes. Second off, a lot of money is going to be spent telling people to vote yes or no on other judicial retentions. Those are completely separate, more partisan races. I’m voting yes on those too, but maybe your politics are different than mine. Even if that’s the case, Democrats and Republicans alike approve of these judges. Vote yes to retain them.

The Democrats Brand Problem, Made Simple

With the brief exception of right before the election, Donald Trump has been historically unpopular for ten years now. Most Presidents have a period of time in which they are very popular with the public, at a minimum after their inauguration. Trump never got there. He’s the first and only President to win twice and lose the popular vote twice, and not hit 50% in any of three runs. Many Democratic policy positions are reasonably popular, and even now they are winning on most issue polling. Most ballot initiatives, from expanding health insurance to protecting abortion rights, to funding schools, to protecting the environment, to legalizing weed, and so on, pass even in red states. Democrats may even win in both New Jersey and Virginia, not to mention the NYC Mayoral race and Pennsylvania Supreme Court retentions this Fall. There are a lot of reasons to think that Democrats could have a very good midterm, and Republicans could have a very bad one. And yet, there’s a lot of reasons to not think that too.

Anecdotal evidence on the ground here in Pennsylvania shows GOP gains in the turnout battle for 2025. There have been weak polls and anecdotal evidence in New Jersey of similar sluggishness in the Democratic Party. Talk to most professionals and they’ll tell you online fundraising has not picked back up since the 2024 Election. The enthusiasm isn’t great. It’s not a sure sign of defeat. It’s problematic though.

Polling on the Democratic Party, rather than their positions, suggests that just about everyone reviles this party right now. Conservatives and Republicans hate the Democratic Party, obviously. Leftists and Democratic Socialists hate the party too, for not radicalizing. Centrist and moderate Democrats generally think the party has lost it’s mind and doesn’t know how to win. Most of the major national figures in the Democratic Party are at least partially controversial to the Democratic base, if not the whole country. Many of the key national policy fights right now, such as “law and order,” immigration, trans-rights, and Gaza are fights that divide Democrats and tend to poll favorably for the GOP. This is astounding given the deep cuts to health care, the environment, student loans, and education that were just carried out in Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” but Trump is managing to push these issues to the forefront through over-the-top actions.

A lot of people in the Democratic tent want to take this time to argue about ideology and “the Overton Window,” and all kinds of largely academic fights that don’t mean anything and won’t change our fortunes right now. Tweaking our position on student loans or health care really isn’t going to change matters very much. Democrats have two main macro-sized problems that are going to drown out any nuance anyway.

  1. Voters don’t like who they think we are. This is sort of self-explanatory. Conservatives think Democrats are a bunch of wimpy nerds who want to make them eat kale, listen to some scientist tell them every decision to make in their lives, and want them to believe that terrorists, criminals, and illegal immigrants are the good guys, but the cops in their town are the bad guys. Leftists and Democratic Socialists think Democrats are a bunch of wimps who will either roll over and play dead in any policy fight, or are bought already and will sell out, or worse yet, are just a bunch of rich privileged kids that want to stay important. Then there’s the rank and file Democratic voter, who generally thinks we’re concerned with matters that don’t matter enough to people’s lives, and are losing elections because we attach ourselves to niche cause we can.
  2. Voters are unenthusiastic at best about the product we’re selling them. We have spent a lot of time fighting about whether we should have more or less identity in our politics, more or less economic ideology in our politics, or that we’re just packaging both wrong. Here’s the reality- a guy who is not popular with the overall public continues to grow his vote share in each election. We can argue about whether it was dislike directly toward Hillary and Kamala, or dislike with our policies, or something else, but voters do not like what we are offering them. I hear a lot of activists saying we can’t morally re-consider even what positions we talk about, much less moderate on them, but the reality is that what we’re doing now doesn’t work. The guy who was perceived as the most moderate candidate beat the crap out of 20 or so Democratic primary candidates and then won a majority to defeat Trump. Once he was seen as feeble and compromised to the party, we have had nothing. Clearly re-running the last decade isn’t going to work.

It is entirely possible that the Democrats can win in 2025 and 2026 without really changing anything. They almost certainly won’t win the Senate, as Democrats hold exactly zero seats right now in states Trump won all three times, and they would need to claw back seats in places like Iowa, Ohio, and Florida, which maybe they do once, but not across the board. In the House though it’s close, and most of the GOP members did take a vote to gut Medicaid. The Republicans were deeply unpopular in 2010 and won over 60 seats. Of course, they lost two years later. It wasn’t until they found a standard bearer that motivated voters and was “different” than the Bush Era GOP that they took back the whole government.

This is really unpopular with some of the most motivated Democrats, but here’s the reality- Democrats should run fairly normal (to regular people, not us), frankly successful people for office, and they should run on things that voters care about and agree with us on. No, I’m not saying you have to change your position on protecting trans kids from bullying, nor do I think you should. I am saying campaigning on broad amnesty for illegal immigrants or defunding the police is stupid and will lose us elections. Saying the War in Gaza should end is fairly easy and mostly agreeable, but don’t defend Hamas or say “Globalize the Intifada.” It’s a loser position. Raising the minimum wage, fixing the student loan system, making more people eligible for overtime, funding schools, building more affordable housing, legalizing marijuana- these are things that most people can support. If it sounds like I’m avoiding some of the bigger social fights, I’m not necessarily. I think we can win running on abortion rights and really most fights that involve protecting the rights of an individual to live how they chose. I think lecturing America about every social ailment it has though has gone piss poor for us, and has backed us into a political corner. So yes, I would try to run a product that people might relate to or even want. If that means talking a little differently to voters, I think the evidence is pretty clear we need to do that.

NLDS Prediction- Phils in Four

Well, Red October is here, and it starts with a bang. The Dodgers and their four (at least?) future Hall-of-Famers arrive in the Cradle of Liberty to kick off their best-of-5 NLDS this afternoon. It is a heavyweight fight between two of the consistently highest spending franchises in baseball. The Phillies have won the last couple of season series between the two. The Dodgers won the 2024 World Series. The Phillies had the better record and won home field for this series, and a bye to get here. The Dodgers won the NL West and swept Cincinnati.

Most teams would kill for most of either of these rosters, so there’s not many weaknesses. Both teams have been able to get to the others bullpens this year. I still think the bullpens will decide this series though. Dave Roberts does not push his starters super deep into games, which makes sense given their health. It’s hard to flip the switch on that in the postseason, even though they are healthy. Meanwhile the Phillies are built around their starting staff. Even without ace Zach Wheeler, they are the more durable staff, when on.

Both lineups are going to have their moments in this series. I’m assuming both teams will have reasonably decent starting pitching though. So this comes down to the bullpens. I think both probably lose at least one. I think the Dodgers blow two. Those guys, even with Sasaki and Kershaw out there, just aren’t good. For that reason, I’m saying the Phillies win this series. I’m going to say they do it in four.

In the other series, I’ve got Brewers in five, Yankees in five, and Tigers in five.

Welcome to Red October.

Did Ann Flood Really Yell “Shut the **** Up” on the House Floor This Week?

First off, let me just respond to my own headline- I hope so. Really, as a fellow Moravian alum, I hope Rep. Flood abandoned all decorum. Why do I care? Apparently back in the old days, Murtha, Kanjorksi, and the boys used to show up on the House Floor late at night and yell drunken obscenities from the one corner of the U.S. House. Oh you think that’s dirty or mean? Give me a break. From what I hear, Rep. Flood has been defending her party’s senate caucus for not coming to work. What’s wrong with a lady from the Northern Tier of Northampton County letting it fly and yelling shit at a fellow member. Let me loose on the floor and I’d commit more violations just for the laughs. What has decorum brought us? If your answer is nothing, the answer is yes. She’s embarrassing her constituents, but they also voted for that.

The ugly side of this story did not come from Rep. Flood though. From the story told to me, some hillbilly from Central PA walked up to Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta after the showdown and called him “boy.” Really, conservatives, why are you being racist? Tell him you don’t approve and be done. The racism proves the point that your party is the hub of Nazis in 2025, and makes you unacceptable to a lot of people. You can’t defeat narratives while you behave like this. You kind of are what you are. It’s not a foregone conclusion, but letting these idiots formally say racist shit helps nobody.

I probably yelled “shut the fuck up” at somebody when the Rams were blowing my parlay tonight. Even so, we don’t need to be a racist society. Do better House GOP. Nobody really needs this. Rep. Flood, I mean whatever, but still. I hope you didn’t do it.

Our Warriors Listened to a Lecture from a TV Personality and a Fat Beta Cuck

I’d be remiss if I didn’t comment on Secretary of Defense (not war, piss off) Pete Hegseth lecturing a bunch of Generals and Admirals this week in Washington. The inebriated drunk Fox News host brought them all to Washington to tell them to get on board with the agenda, and also to lecture them about fat people. He seriously brought Donald Trump up on stage with him and then lectured a bunch of certified BAMF’ers about wanting to get fat people out of the military. His three bills boss, also known as tubby gut, who hasn’t seen the inside of a gym probably since college, is up there while they told a bunch of guys in kick ass shape that they want to get rid of fat people.

Look, this like many things is another area where Trump is pretty terrible, but not nearly the worst. Taft was more fat. Harding more corrupt. Jackson more racist. Nixon more paranoid and vindictive. Buchanan was more unwilling to change with the times. I could go on. Trump is bad in all of these areas though, and he’s less self aware than anybody. If you’re looking in the mirror and your body is soft and saggy, don’t talk about physical fitness. If you haven’t been able to see your feet in the shower in years, don’t lecture Generals and Admirals about force fitness.

I know that everyone around Trump is an ass kisser and never tells him the truth about himself. I think that’s kind of sad for the guy. Even Melania won’t tell him her thing for the cleaning boy back at Trump Tower that she stays behind in their place for. I get it, he’d probably fly off the handle at her if he knew. But the result is he thinks people actually like his looks. It’s sad. He’s not aesthetically pleasing. He couldn’t have met the physical fitness standards he’s setting for the military even 30 years ago. Dude is an unhealthy lard.

And before you tell me I wouldn’t say this to his face- I would.

There is no Magic Money, Which is Why Leaders Have to Make Tough Choices

The federal government is shut down. The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania has no budget or appropriations bill. These are just words on a page to most people, because most people don’t eat, sleep, and pray politics, believe it or not. They go to work, take care of their families, and try to live their lives the best they can. They cannot simply decide to stop doing that, so their time to read about what the government is doing or proposing is very limited. They kind of need the cliff notes version so they have a basic understanding of the problems, and what should or can be done. I’m going to give it to them here- there is no money.

Your county, your city, and your school board basically are being kept open using your local taxes- often property taxes, but also sometimes sales and income taxes as well. Yes, the federal and state government are still collecting revenue from you right now (taxes), but they have no legal authority to spend new money moving forward. For now there are still some payments that were pre-approved that are going out, but even they are starting to run out of legal authority. In the not so distant future, there will simply be no more money going from the feds or the state out to counties, non-profits, cities, townships, public-private partnerships, or school boards. The net effect of this is devastating. Most of what counties, municipal governments, and school boards do are mandatory actions imposed on them from Washington or Harrisburg. A school can’t cut school lunches or busing, for instance. A city can’t stop providing a police department or fire department, in some form. The feds and the state send along a rather large chunk of cash to finance all of that. Local governments don’t tax nearly a high enough rate to pay for all of these programs on their own. They still must provide them either way.

In other words, there is a breaking point. I recently slammed Roger Maclean for saying “we’ll get our money” in his Lehigh County Executive debate with Josh Siegel, because that is an ignorant statement. Even before the Federal shutdown, the “Big Beautiful Bill,” DOGE, and the last appropriations bill all cut federal payments to state and local governments. Now that cut is currently a zero. Worse yet, the state contribution to local governments and services is now zero. If they don’t give you money, money does not magically show up. Lying to the public and to public workers and saying “it will all be okay” is not only irresponsible and immoral, it takes the heat off of the people who should be doing their jobs and funding the locals. Congress shut down the government to cut Affordable Care Act subsidies, aka health care for working people who buy it. The State Senate hasn’t come to work in three months because they want to kill SEPTA and make Josh Shapiro look like a weirdo. No local official should be giving these people a pass. Local elected leaders should be pointing out all the ways this is beginning to hurt normal people.

Unfortunately a month out from an election, there are a lot of irresponsible children running for office who want to pretend nothing is wrong. Unfortunately both parties are doing it. I get it, nobody wants to be mom telling you to eat your peas and carrots instead of cake, and certainly nonsense like this from “The Quiet Man” Tom Giovanni, silent because he’s confused, isn’t helpful:

“As a candidate for Northampton County Executive, I believe it is unacceptable that the current administration has chosen to cut essential programs and furlough hardworking employees simply because Harrisburg has failed to pass a state budget. Leadership is about preparation, responsibility, and putting people first. Our county should never be held hostage to gridlock in the state capital.

Instead of hurting workers to make a political point, I recommended that the administration follow Treasurer Stacy Garrity’s example of providing loans to counties to cover short-term budget needs. That would have protected services and employees while avoiding unnecessary disruption.”

Garrity’s loans will not be sustainable soon, and are not free money for the county, but let’s get to the heart of this- actually Tom, people suffer when Harrisburg fails to pass a budget. It turns out state and national government are actually important in our society, and we’re learning that in real time. The county does not tax their population a high enough rate to absorb the costs of running itself if the state just decides to stop paying them. If your response to that is “do less!,” then please proceed to tell us if you’re going to close the prison, stop providing a court system, get rid of the department of children and youth, or close the nursing home. If you can name another county office that actually exists, you can choose that too. For the most part though, cutting those services would run into legal trouble, because most of what they do is mandatory under federal and state law.

I would be remiss if I didn’t mention all the Democrats though who also aren’t willing to bite the bullet. The truth is that the solution to the counties and municipalities running out of money is Harrisburg and Washington making agreements that re-open the governments. There is no other answer, and frankly given that Democrats aren’t in charge of anything federally or the vacationing State Senate, we should be saying that. I’ll be voting for Tara Zrinski, but I don’t agree with her here:

We need to create avenues of mutual aid within the community by calling on community partners to fill some of the gaps in human services. We have already delayed funds to service providers but we did not entertain temporary redistribution of County Funds or a Tax Anticipation Note, which would allow us to borrow against anticipated property tax revenue. This TAN would be paid back when the State passes a budget but with approximately $350,000 – $400,000 of accumulated interest. This has been the sticking point for the administration that has no desire to bail the State out because the interest would not be paid back by the State. We cut our nose off to spite our face though. That interest is a small small price to pay for the safety of our community and the security of our workforce that knows we have their backs. Literally, it is an estimated 2 cents for every $1000 of assessed property value in the County. 

Well, here are my 2 cents– County Executive McClure has presented this as an inevitability. But there is nothing inevitable about abandoning our workforce. There are alternatives. There are reserves, reallocations, and other strategies available that don’t involve punishing workers or jeopardizing public safety. Leadership means problem-solving—not taking the easy way out by balancing the books on the backs of our workforce. When we destabilize human services, we invite higher long-term costs, greater risks, and more pain for the very residents we are sworn to protect. So today I stand with SEIU 668 workers, and I call on County Executive McClure: stop these furloughs. Protect the people who protect Northampton County. And I call on Harrisburg legislators: end the gridlock. Pass a fair budget now. You are literally arguing over what amounts to 6% of your overall budget– for what? To lower medicaid, to take away SNAP benefits. Where are the adults in the room?

Ok, so basically “the plan” here is to borrow money against money we’re supposed to get back in the future, never mind that we don’t know when that will be and therefore don’t really know if the $350-400k number will be final, and continue providing services? We should reallocate funds- should that be Medicaid/Medicare funds for Gracedale, the funding for the jail, the funding for the courts, or what mandatory spending should we end? And we should accept the 6% interest on a loan because Ann Flood and Joe Emrick don’t want to fund SEPTA and the GOP State Senators wanted to spend September and October at their beach houses?

Yes, I think it’s fucking awful and barbaric to do things like furlough caseworkers who literally work for way less than they’re worth to protect children, or to close Safe Harbor and services for the homeless, or to really lay off anyone who is working for the county, almost everything they do down there is to help those who are the least fortunate in our society. It’s awful and barbaric, and it’s who the hell we are as a society. The State Senate is not some abstract entity that has nothing to do with the people, the State Senate is the people. Ryan Mackenzie wants to cut subsidies for working poor people buying the Affordable Care Act and dramatically raise health insurance rates for people paying full price, such as myself (a recent amputee), but Ryan Mackenzie is in Washington shutting down our government for a reason- he was elected to go there. Let’s stop pretending we’re so much better than our government as a society, we picked the bastards who are in it.

What the local officials are proposing here is simply shifting the pain and suffering of the incompetence in Harrisburg and Washington from municipal and county employees to the broader society that pays their salaries. Is that fair and moral? Probably yes actually, you voted for this. Is it sensible or even remotely a sane way to run a community? No, of course not. Re-distributing the pain and suffering on to our full society sounds absolutely nuts if you say it out loud, and if you do it in front of someone they’ll either hit you or have you committed. Yes, it’s obviously an easier, temporary way out. It’s also utterly stupid.

If you sit here and say furloughs are a good thing, you’re a heartless moron that is robbing Peter to pay Paul. If you sit here and say we should just borrow our way through the ineptitude, you’re inept. The only good solution would be a Harrisburg and a Washington that aren’t trying to do anything possible to screw the least amongst them, and funded their governments. That is the solution. There is no “magic carpet ride” to utopia here. The money that keeps children, old people, the disabled, the sick, and the mentally incompetent safe in our society, it comes from the federal and state governments. Do I think McClure is insane to propose furloughs in the middle of both the campaign to succeed him and his own Congressional campaign? Yes, it could very well be political suicide. These are the actual choices being presented to us locally though by our elected state and national leaders.

Yesterday our neckbeard Vice-President basically suggested emergency rooms should not have to treat the “illegals” that are over-running them (that is not happening). That would, of course, be a violation of the law, everywhere in America. I wonder how many people have considered or fathomed what this would look like though? I have friends in foreign countries, some of them have seen dead bodies from people who starved or were left untreated while sick. This is a choice a society can make, and it’s a choice that the Vice-President of the United States is advocating. We really aren’t better than this.

Anyway, I lost you by the second paragraph I’m sure. My original point was people don’t have time to read all of this shit. So I lead with the point- there is no money, because Harrisburg and Washington. If you got anything, I hope you got that. There will not be any “magic money.”