When I was a new voter in my college years, the Lehigh County Republican Party had begun their Fall. Democrats took back the County Executive’s job in 2005, a job the GOP has not won since, across three different elected Executives. The Lehigh County GOP had just face planted in 2001 in Allentown after a couple of terms in charge, then they lost to Ed Pawlowski and never got that job back either, three elected Mayors later. Lehigh County only has a small piece of Bethlehem, but they lose a lot there too. They managed to hang on to some visible power for years with Pat Toomey, Charlie Dent, and Pat Browne, but all of them have been sent off to the GOP inquisition for excommunication at the altar of Trump. As all of this went on, the Lehigh County GOP managed to lose all four at-large seats in the 2019 and 2023 elections and be relegated into a deep minority status on the Commissioner board, regardless of who the Democrats run and who funds the race. In short, the Lehigh County Republican Party has a recent record of success that looks like the New York Jets.
It’s safe to say the Lehigh County GOP has no “Broadway Joe” walking in to save them anytime soon though, so the Jets comparisons are fair. Instead they have Roger Maclean, a former Democrat that says he was always a Trump voter, and served as Ed Pawlowski’s hand picked city councilman and police chief, rubber stamping Pawlowski’s corrupt budgets. Maclean made a fool of himself in a recent debate, where he said he would fix the looming fiscal crisis in the county caused by the state’s overdue budget magically- “we’ll get our money.” Despite complaints to the contrary, Maclean was actually a terrible police chief too. Not only was there law breaking going on in city hall, Maclean had cops arrested in connection with rape, sex trafficking, and other horrific charges while he was chief in Allentown. Basically his cops were assaulting prostitutes and stealing money they recovered in drug busts, allegedly. Not only that, but crime fell immediately after Maclean left the job, both overall and in violent crimes. This guy is a dud.
Not only is the Lehigh County GOP running an ex-Pawlowski Democrat that was asleep on the job, they’re encouraging voters to “vote to honor Charlie” Kirk. Look, it’s awful that the guy was gunned down by a psychopath, but he has literally nothing to do with Lehigh County. I would venture a guess that over 90% of the folks who have discussed him in recent weeks never watched him. This has nothing to do with keeping Cedarbrook open, or how much to cooperate with ICE detainers, or running the children and youth departments, or open space preservation, or really anything within Lehigh County Government. It’s just a straight appeal to the most animal instincts of one portion of the electorate to be mad. Of course, in fairly blue Lehigh County, that won’t be enough for them, but they’re kind of just hoping more normal, moderate voters don’t notice this.
Unfortunately for them, that probably won’t happen.
I haven’t seen any full reports yet, but apparently we’re in for a bit of a surprise. Bob “Crooksy” Brooks definitely didn’t “rake in the cash,” only so far saying he beat $300k. That’s definitely not the $400k the DCCC rumor mill pushed. Despite touting his backing from a bunch of people from out of town and the non-endorsement that is supposed to be an endorsement from Governor Shapiro, Crooksy isn’t keeping pace with what his handlers are saying about him.
Meanwhile the word was that Ryan Crosswell was going to underwhelm. Well it doesn’t matter if it’s crushing Coors Light in DC or raising cash, he’s apparently keeping a serious pace. His campaign says they’ve raised $700k so far in two quarters. That would mean he raised $380k this past quarter. He probably beat Crooksy pretty badly.
Both of these guys have awful negatives and I think are very vulnerable. I think Crooksy probably has insurmountable negatives, no one likes a guy who stiffs his mother-in-law. Neither is a Democrat really, so I guess they both have primary problems. Crooksy was already $320k behind Union Busting Ryan to begin with, now it’s probably like $350k. Nobody knows who Crooksy is out there, it’s so bad that Mackenzie just left him out of his poll this week. Of course, earlier polling showed people didn’t really love Crooksy even when they were read a positive bio, so that’s probably for the best. Neither of these two are well known, but Crosswell will at least have money to try and cover up his bad behavior. If Crooksy keeps spending away his campaign money and missing his goals, he’ll be lucky to finish fourth in this primary. He should never have ran.
Janet Mills is the Governor of Maine. She has won twice for her office, both times by a lot. She will also be 78 years old next year. There is zero sign that she has mentally slowed at all, but she will be 84 at the end of the Senate term up in 2026 in Maine. Frankly, I do not care. Age is a predictor of whatever you want it to be. If this were a race for President, I’d have added concerns. This is not though.
All of the worst people, the very worst people, the most awful people, maybe very well the very worst people hate that Governor Mills is running. Bernie wants her to not run so we can “not waste millions on an unnecessary and divisive primary.” Is this for real? The guy who made Hillary Clinton run primaries for months after he had no mathematical way to winning the *elected delegates* for our 2016 Presidential nomination now is worried about primaries. He’s telling us about how his chosen candidate, Graham Platner, is a “great working class candidate for Senate,” You know who else he said that about? John Fetterman. How has that turned out? Platner has hired the same media consultants as Mamdani, Fetterman, Bernie, and even our local Bernie bro, Bob “Crooksy” Brooks. They’re raking in the bucks, and to be fair, their work quality is solid. They are really selling us a lot of garbage people though.
Janet Mills might be a wonderful candidate, regardless of what Platner’s push poll (just read his bio they read voters, it’s horseshit) said. As I said above, she’s won twice for Governor, the same voters who will be voting in 2026. She’s a pro-choice, pro-ACA, and has real achievements fighting climate change, in her actual career in government. Graham Platner is out there saying Governors like Mills have taken the Democratic Party off track. I couldn’t agree less. Meanwhile he’s backed by Bernie Sanders, who has been rejected twice by our primary voters for President (including in Maine’s 2020 primary), says he’s for “Medicare for All,” which can’t even get a vote in Congress because it has no way to be funded, and talks a lot about “oligarchy.” This guy has no real, specific plans to do anything, and just talks in platitudes with buzzwords he learned from Bernie. Even so, I think it’s at least fair to let the two battle it out in a primary and see who the better candidate is. For me though, I’m not for the guy that worked at Blackwater in 2018 but calls himself a revolutionary. Sorry, no thanks, give me the lady that actually knows what she’s doing, no matter how damn old she is.
And then there were four. That’s it, four teams are left. One LCS already played a game. There’s really only four teams to rank, though this will be the final ranking for teams #5-8. A week from now there might only be two teams to rank. I’m basing this week’s rankings on 1. the state of their series, and 2. the state of their pitching. Enjoy.
I got chosen for a web poll- whoever did that should be fired. They asked how I felt about every Democratic candidate but Crooksy, and I only gave two of them positive marks. They asked my feelings about Governor Shapiro- I’ll vote for him, but I’m definitely not in the cult. They asked about Trump and Vance- I think they’re trailer trash. They asked about my top issues- I said healthcare and inflation. It was very vanilla. I think it was either Mackenzie or Pinsley/Carol doing the poll. If I had to guess? It was Mackenzie.
The interesting part? No Crooksy. My guess is if it’s Mackenzie he’s just not worried about a guy who robbed his mother-in-law. The conspiracy theorist in me thinks maybe Crooksy himself, trying to figure out how to pick up voters. Honestly though, he should just drop out. His negatives will burn him.
For the fourth straight year, the Philadelphia Phillies reached the Postseason. For the fourth straight year the Phillies did not win the World Series. For the second straight year the Phillies won the NL East. For the third straight year the Phillies lost a playoff series to a team they won more games than during the season. 96 wins be damned, the second Kerkering’s throw sailed past Realmuto, the season has felt like a loss. This really seemed like it should have been the year.
It was not though, and it looked a lot like the other recent failures, prompting me and others to say it’s time to break things up a bit. Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, Ranger Suarez, Max Kepler, David Robertson, Walker Buehler, and Jordan Romano are all going to be free agents. The Phillies hold a club option on Jose Alvarado and a mutual option with Harrison Bader. The Phillies only control the rights of Nick Castellanos, Alec Bohm, Jesus Luzardo, Taijuan Walker, and Matt Strahm for one more year. In other words, the group they built from 2022 until this past trade deadline is coming to the conclusion of their contracts. The ball club is coming to a crossroads.
The Phillies have guaranteed contracts with Trea Turner ($27,272,727 toward the luxury tax), Bryce Harper ($25,384,615), Nick Castellanos ($20,000,000), Zack Wheeler ($42,000,000), Cristopher Sanchez ($5,625,000), Aaron Nola ($24,571,429), Taijuan Walker ($18,000,000), and Matt Strahm ($7,500,000 option that vested). The owe a minimum buyout of $500,000 on Alvarado if they buy out his option ($9,000,000 if they accept it) and $3,000,000 on Bader if they decline ($10,000,000 if they accept it. That leaves them with a guaranteed payroll of $173,853,771.
The Phillies have a number of players who are also arbitration eligible. MLB Trade Rumors did a piece recently projecting what those players should get, you should give them a read. They project that should the Phillies agree to offer arbitration to these players (they can decline to and let the player go to free agency), Alec Bohm ($10,300,000), Brandon Marsh ($4,500,000), Bryson Stott ($5,800,000), Edmundo Sosa ($3,900,000), Rafael Marchan ($1,000,000), Garrett Stubbs ($925,000), Jesus Luzardo ($10,400,000), Jhoan Duran ($7,600,000), and Tanner Banks ($1,200,000) would cost the Phillies roughly (these are estimates) $45,625,000. Added together with their guaranteed contracts and the Phillies would have a starting payroll of $219,448,771. There are also a number of players on the Phillies current roster who neither have reached a guaranteed free agent contract or arbitration, and those players are renewed for next season at a minimum rate of $820,000 (if they’re up the whole season. Those players are Orion Kerkering, Max Lazar, Weston Wilson, Otto Kemp, Johan Rojas, Alan Rangel (spent some time up this year, mostly is a AAA starter), Moises Chace (coming back from Tommy John in AA, unlikely to pitch in the majors), Jean Cabrera (Pitched in Reading fairly well this year), Daniel Robert (was up and down a bit this season), Michael Mercado (has come up for short stints the last two years), Seth Johnson (has come up for short stints the last two years), Nolan Hoffman (made his debut for the Phillies late this season), Rafael Lantigua (spent the entire AAA season in Lehigh Valley and came up in the last week), and Brewer Hicklen (has spent much of the last two seasons in Lehigh Valley and appeared on the 40 man roster both years). Most of them won’t make their full salary because they will spend time in the minors, but however many spots you fill with these guys, you’ll pay out $820,000.
For our arguments sake right now, let’s assume everyone under contract is back in full, all of the players at arbitration are retained right at the rates above, and Alvarado and Bader’s options are exercised, putting the Phillies payroll at $234,948,771. In order to fill out the roster, let’s assume that Kerkering, Lazar, Robert, and Rangel are kept in the bullpen, and Kemp and Rojas are kept on the bench. They may interchange with some of the other guys on that list, but they would cost $4,920,000 more, setting the Phillies minimum payroll right now at $239,868,771. The luxury tax threshold for 2026 is $244,000,000. The Phillies would have $4,232,229 to spend before the tax, assuming they don’t non-tender some of these players or trade them.
Quite clearly, that is not enough money to bring back any of the free agents on this team right now, but I wouldn’t worry too much about that. For one thing, even cheaper players like Justin Crawford, Andrew Painter, Gabriel Rincones, and Aidan Miller all have varying chances to contribute to the team next season. Second, and probably more importantly, they will move some of the guys they have. Third, and most importantly, the Phillies are likely to go into the luxury tax again this season. With all of that said, I would be very surprised if they kept all of Schwarber, Realmuto, and Suarez- they probably can’t afford it. They also would probably be smart to not pile more money into players 32 and up (Schwarber and Realmuto) without at least trying to get younger and more athletic somewhere on the roster. With all of that said, there are other costs the team takes on- minor league payroll, player benefits, differed payments to past players (Realmuto and Didi Gregorius are both being paid next year), and the bonus pool for pre-arbitration players on the team. They come out to about $30,000,000 for the Phillies next season. So the Phillies are really only about $35 million short of what they paid out in 2025.
I would say they go into the offseason needing a catcher (Realmuto?), a power bat (Could be Schwarber, could be an outfielder or corner infielder too), and at least one high leverage reliever, if not two. If I were them, I’d take a good long look at their starting pitching, as it was great this year, but had cracks, and I’d consider bringing back Ranger Suarez. I would prioritize extensions for Luzardo and Duran, and I’d try to work out a two or three year deal at a lower average annual value (luxury tax hit) with Bader and Alvarado. Finally, I’d prioritize getting Crawford and Painter onto the active roster early next season, even if it’s not an ideal role. Notice the Dodgers had some young starting pitchers (Sheehan and Sasaki) in their playoff bullpen, it’s okay to bring a guy up and build his role there. This is where things start from. We’ll dive further in, in a couple of days.
I have no idea why literally anyone reads Vanity Fair right now, but meet West Coast Editor Olivia Nuzzi. Nuzzi once upon a time wrote about New Jersey politics, I think, but then she became a big time national writer. Then she had an affair a married RFK Jr. over FaceTime and basically cucked her fiancé, Politico’s Ryan Lizza, before slapping him with a restraining order for a bit. Now she’s an editor for Vanity Fair. You can’t make this shit up. From the New York Post:
Nuzzi’s year-long affair with RFK Jr. allegedly included “incredible” FaceTime sex, “demure nudes,” lengthy phone calls and “I love yous.”
The sexting scandal and subsequent fallout also impacted Nuzzi’s personal life.
She filed for a protective order against her former fiance, former Politico reporter Ryan Lizza, accusing him of committing blackmail and harassment when news of the affair broke — only to withdraw the petition weeks later.
Big dog! I’m only jealous she’s done all this behavior by the time she is 32. Ok, maybe not. She was sexting with a dude with a worm in his brain. I may not be proud of every lady I ever interacted with, but at least none of them were RFK Jr.
James Comey is an ass, I really don’t care what happens to him. Letitia James has her ups (fighting Trump, the nursing home report against Cuomo) and downs (her report not one prosecutor in the state would use against Cuomo), so while I think she’s being politically targeted for prosecution, I will admit that it at least looks plausible that she lied on a mortgage application. The problem here is really rather simple- you can probably get almost anyone for something. Prosecutorial discretion, and for that matter law enforcement discretion, is a thing, and all we really hope as a society is that it is exercised in a color-blind, totally fair way. Maybe Comey lied to Congress. Maybe James lied on her application. We are only having this discussion though because Trump does not like them.
So, let’s prepare ourselves for where we’re going. Trump is sending troops into large, Democratic American cities. People on the ground are protesting, some spontaneously and some in an organized manner. I have my doubts about the effectiveness of protest in the 21st century, but I am 100% certain it is legal and protected under our Constitution. Inevitably, some protestors will go beyond their legal rights though. In a lawful society, you deal with them individually. Trump will skip that step though.
Donald Trump’s executive order targeting ANTIFA is stupid. ANTIFA is not an organization, not even a loosely affiliated terrorist network like Al-Qaeda, Hamas, Hezbollah, or ISIS that is united by funding. ANTIFA has no financial leader, it has no headquarters, it has no structure or leadership. There is no ANTIFA, but there are individuals who refer to themselves as “anti-fascists,” which you know, was America’s position on World War II. Trump doesn’t care about all of that though. He’s issuing this order so his government can charge elected Democrats and major funders as domestic terrorists and leaders of an organized crime syndicate.
Think of it this way- there are organized protests, especially in the Trump era. Many of them receive funding from left-leaning and Democratic groups. To the extent there is an “organized left” in America today, it is a collection of mega donors that finance left-leaning organizations on everything from electing liberal prosecutors, to fighting climate change, to protesting on social issues. Most of these groups are funded by major donors, think like George Soros and Michael Bloomberg. These big donors often “pool” their resources together to fund organizations fighting for the things they believe in. I question if it’s been good for Democrats to be driven by each interest group all these years, but it’s certainly not illegal. Unless of course, the government now claims they’re basically organized crime units and domestic terror groups. Now all of a sudden they have to be broken up, and their funders have to be prosecuted. Is it bullshit? Of course. Is it about to happen? Yes.
Donald Trump is going to prosecute the hell out of these people in the coming years. The Department of Justice is going to start dropping RICO indictments and other conspiracy-esque charges on major left-leaning donors to shut down what’s left of the Democratic left in America. In the long term, could that free the Democratic Party from it’s least popular portions of the brand? Yes, it probably will. It’s incredibly problematic though. This is effectively the end of the First Amendment as a shield against government targeting. The real question is, is this still a functioning democracy? The answer is probably no.
I wonder if anyone is re-thinking the decision to try and prosecute Trump now? Honestly, it didn’t work, and it’s basically the pretense for what we’re seeing play out. Was he guilty? Technically yes. Was it worth it though? Probably not.
Ryan Crosswell’s manager says he’s feeling the love in Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District, but every other metric says otherwise. No elected in the district backs him. No union backs him. He had one donor from the district on his first report. Look, it’s hard moving to a new place and making new friends, I get it. Ryan’s struggling a bit.
I have to hand it to him though, he’s a man after my own heart. A couple weeks ago he ran off to Washington, D.C. for a few days. I like to do that when I’m depressed and want to feel completely hopeless about the future. He went hanging out at a bar called “Problem Child” over by Nats Park in the Navy Yard, also known as “RNC South” for the folks living there. You know what, I’m still right with him, that’s exactly where I go to feel better about all of my flaws, the Navy Yard is full of people who will make you feel better about yourself. So far, I’m with him. He also went out drinking beer, and well, I definitely like beer. More importantly than me liking beer, I think any good candidate who isn’t literally a recovering alcoholic should be able to drink beer amongst the people, it shows you can relate to the masses. So far, I’d say Ryan is kind of winning me over with all of this. But… Coors? I mean look bro, why don’t you just order a water? At least the water isn’t created by a notorious anti-union company, and it probably will get you more drunk. If I were being called a Republican and a union-buster, while running in a Democratic Primary in a district I’m not from, I’d probably put down the Coors for at least a bit so that people can’t make the point once again that I don’t care about labor rights. Hey though, we all make choices.
The photo and others (more for later, right?) were forwarded to me in an e-mail from a friend. They were dated 9/18 and 9/19, so a Thursday and Friday. I don’t mind that Crosswell likes beer, I do too. This just all screams the main points about him though- he’s running not to represent the Valley, but to get back home to DC, and he doesn’t give a damn about Democratic values, because he isn’t one.
Jimmy Carter made history with a deal between Egypt and Israel, but still couldn’t forge a lasting peace in the region. Bill Clinton got peace accords signed between the Palestinian Authority and Israel, and then very nearly got a permanent agreement creating two states, but he came up narrowly short thanks to Arafat. Barack Obama got a nuclear deal with Iran and removed many of the standing issues between the United States and the Middle Eastern nations, but still couldn’t build a lasting peace. Joe Biden ended our long occupation of Afghanistan and tried very hard to hammer down a lasting agreement in Gaza, but he couldn’t get it done. Of course the Bush Presidencies were bogged down in the region and did not leave popular in the region, and Reagan was illegally playing both sides of a brutal war in the region, so he’s not loved either.
To hear Donald Trump tell it, he has been more successful in the region. He negotiated the Abraham Accords, and has convinced multiple Arab states to recognize Israel. Now he has negotiated a new ceasefire in Gaza. This is driving some people nuts, as Trump and his followers are saying he should win the Nobel Peace Prize now. While that is ridiculously silly, Trump has had some real successes in the region. You have to be a total partisan hack to say otherwise. But why is this man succeeding there?
The long and short of why Arab states are willing to deal with Trump in ways they did not with previous U.S. Presidents is simple- they agree with him and share common goals. Past Republican Administrations had neoconservative leanings and wanted to spread democracy across the region, a goal Trump could not give two shits about, and a goal that most Middle Eastern leaders reject. Past Democratic Administrations very much wanted a two state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian question, and from 1948 to today, no Middle Eastern country has really wanted that to happen, especially not the countries closest to the West Bank and Gaza, while Trump has shown no real inkling of wanting a Palestinian nation to exist on any sort of terms that Palestinians would want. Past Democratic nations have also wanted to take up issues of human rights abuses in the region, which Trump is completely disinterested in. Trump is interested in making money with some of the rulers in the Middle East though, something they are very interested in with him as well. In short, his interests basically align with most of their’s, so they’re happy to deal with him.
There is of course the Israeli side of this, and again, I think this comes down to simple interests. Past U.S. Administrations have wanted a two state solution, and governments in Israel after Oslo I have either opposed that outright or been wary of it. While I think Netanyahu has tested Trump’s patience a bit by not just giving him the headlines he wants, in the end neither has any burning interest in a two-state solution. Netanyahu may prefer a “Hot War” to a “Cold War” with Hamas, but even in a ceasefire state he can continue to make the case for his right-wing positions on the Palestinians as long as Hamas is there. Trump is fine with Hamas being there, as long as they sign his ceasefire to make him look good. Neither Hamas or Bibi Netanyahu have any real interest in ending this state of war. Trump has no interest in making them do so. They’re all pretty happy with it.
Now, I don’t think you really need to worry about Trump winning a Nobel Peace Prize, if you really care all that much about it (I don’t). The prize is based in Oslo, Norway, and the politics behind who wins it are largely driven by Western European politics. On the issue of Gaza, Western Europe is basically moving the goalposts so far left on Trump now that they will not have to really consider giving it to him. Governments across Western Europe are going for full-blown Palestinian statehood, which is fairly popular with their publics, which is frankly a position that Carter, Clinton, Obama, and Biden all could not have met realistically in a real political sense. So Trump’s position on a ceasefire will still look fairly reactionary to most of Western Europe, and his reluctance to full embrace Ukraine in their war with Russia will disqualify him across the continent. In short, they’re not going to give him the prize, no matter what.
With that all said, we shouldn’t all dismiss this ceasefire agreement, or at least the desire for one, out of hand. Israel had every right to respond after October 7th, but both their government and Hamas have drug this conflict out well beyond what was necessary or useful. The return of any remaining Israeli hostages and a halt to the violence that is killing thousands of Palestinians each month is a good thing for both groups of people. While I think anything short of the eradication of Hamas is a recipe for future disaster, that doesn’t make this deal a bad short-term thing.
Some things are bigger than our feelings about Trump, and even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Apocalypse Vibes 