Author: Rich Wilkins

PA-7 Poll Shows McClure Up Big

/ Rich Wilkins / 6 Comments

People get caught up in “horserace coverage” during elections, but the reality is that nothing actually happens until money is being spent and votes are being cast. With that said, I told you about a poll a couple of days ago that was out in the field for the PA-7 Democratic Primary. I didn’t know who had actually done it then though. It turns out the poll was done by PPP (Public Policy Polling). For who? I don’t know. I managed to get the results though. McClure holds a 16% lead in the initial ballot, with Pinsley and Obando-Derstine tied for second. Brooks and Crosswell are within the margin of error of zero initially. After bios McClure and Obando-Derstine are the only serious candidates, with McClure’s lead only mildly changed. Crosswell gets out of being within the margin of error of zero, but only up to 7%. Even after bio, Brooks is only at 5%. The concept of a candidate like Brooks does better with the public than the actual candidate does. Pinsley actually goes down after people heard his bio. When informed that Crosswell is a lifelong Republican, with a union buster past, and no ties to the community, 88% of Democratic voters said they had very serious or somewhat serious concerns.

Only the Pinsley part of this shocks me. Lamont McClure has a base of support that he built up winning races over the past 15+ years, there’s probably no way to really drive him down in Northampton County. While Carol Obando-Derstine is a relative unknown, Democratic voters like voting for an educated woman who is an immigrant to this country. There’s a rationalization for these candidates running. I would think the same for Pinsley, as he’s occupying the political “left lane” in this race, but the polling didn’t bare that out. Crosswell is the creation of some Beltway consultants who want to just pour money into creating a fictional story that didn’t really happen. As for Brooks, while people say they want to vote for a blue-collar bio, fire fighter, and little league coach, that’s not what they end up selecting when push comes to shove.

Again, this isn’t votes being cast. Polling assumes everyone can get their message out at equal levels, which they can’t. On top of this, almost 40% are undecided at the end of the poll, which I’m sure some Carvillian Geniuses in DC and the Valley will say shows this race is going to change. This race is starting to shows shades of the 2018 primary though, in which Susan Wild won by 2.4% with 33.5%. There are five candidates this time instead of six, but were Roger Ruggles or David Clark running to actually win in that race? Carol, by way of bio, is probably going to grow into a candidate who gets close to 30% simply by staying viable. I don’t see how or why she would do better than Congresswoman Wild did in that race though, seeing as how the district is more conservative than it was then. McClure’s positives are very high, like Morganelli in that race, but he isn’t out of step with the party on Trump, immigration, or abortion, like Morganelli was. In this race it will be Crosswell answering for negatives. Brooks kind of looks like the Ruggles in this race. Pinsley wants to be the Edwards. At least right now, this race looks like maybe it’s a two dog hunt. Maybe.

Pinsley Enters PA-7

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Lehigh County Controller Mark Pinsley just became the fourth Democrat to officially enter the race for the PA-7 Congressional seat. Pinsley told one Democratic insider last week that he will be the “progressive” in the race. Others have told me he is hoping to garner support from “Make the Road,” and other Lehigh County progressive groups.

Pinsley becomes the second elected official and third Lehigh County based (allegedly) candidate in the race. He will attempt to consolidate the “Bernie crowd.” He has previously run for State Senate and Auditor General. Despite his progressive views, he has struggled in the past with earning union support.

I still expect Bob Brooks to enter and make it five. Very clearly, this field is not closing off and consolidating behind one candidate. We are looking at a crowded 2026 primary.

A New Poll in the Field for PA-7?

/ Rich Wilkins / 1 Comment

About a half hour ago my mother received a text poll on the Democratic Primary in PA-7. The poll asked her about Ryan Crosswell, Lamont McClure, Bob Brooks, Carol Obando-Derstine, and Mark Pinsley. It gave some biographical information on each. My mother thought they were “impressive.” No idea who did it, but I’d be interested to hear the results. She didn’t mention any negatives, but I didn’t see it for myself.

Why Bipartisanship is Important- Irony

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I registered as a Democrat in no small part because of George W. Bush. I was unhappy with how he had won the 2000 election and decided to be a Democrat because of this (and a few, very important, other reasons). Then Iraq, the Patriot Act, Katrina, and a market collapse pushed me firmly left of center. I had grown up in a union household, but those young adult years really made me a Democrat. I couldn’t stand Bush 43.

Fast forward to last year. I lose my lower left leg. By Thanksgiving I have my prosthetic. A couple setbacks later, I’m walking for real at New Years. In May I had another issue, back to the hospital for three days. After some healing, I was back up, and this week I get a state of the art brand new leg. Medicine and science are great. For those of you who hate the industries, let me tell you that those of us living with major issues thank God every day that we live with today’s advancements.

Now, the ironic part- I would not have the medical blessings I have without the Bush (and Obama) era VA. I owe 95% of my thanks to the brave Americans who lost limbs in Iraq and Afghanistan, they were the reason the VA and medical field poured money into prosthetics research. Every ounce of faith I have in humanity goes to them. But it was the Bush Administration’s investment that got me walking today. Hence I will tell you- it’s not worth the partisan hate we put out into the universe. Almost always, someone is doing good for others. Embrace that.

Brooks to Enter PA-7 Race

/ Rich Wilkins / 7 Comments

Pennsylvania Professional Fire Fighters Association President (IAFF) and retired Bethlehem Fire Fighter Bob Brooks will reportedly enter the race for Congress in the Lehigh Valley this week, according to a source in labor. He joins a field of three, with one more person reportedly about to enter. This primary is getting crowded.

Brooks has an excellent profile to run in this district, at least on paper. Every time I’ve ever seen it polled in Pennsylvania, fire fighters are the most overwhelmingly popular group tested. He has an authentically blue collar profile, which fits well trying to win over the district’s crucial swing voters. If he had come out months ago, one wonders if the field would be this crowded.

With that all said, I think this is a fool’s errand. No one knows who Brooks is right now, and there’s no reason to believe he’ll be the kind of fundraiser that Crosswell has been, on his own. Unless he can drive McClure out (he can’t), he’s not going to get enough votes out of his home county. He’s a very risky unknown as a first time candidate in a crucial seat. He claims some major people are backing him, or have promised to back him if he starts out well. Let’s see if they’re willing to not only endorse, and campaign for him, but also to raise him the kind of money he needs. Short of an insane investment from others, I see no path to victory.

Crosswell- Come Check Out My Local Firm in San Diego

/ Rich Wilkins / 1 Comment

At this point, I think this is simply comedy hour. Imagine you’re a Republican carpetbagger. Imagine you also have a history of being a union buster. Now imagine you raise $320k and only $500 of it is from the district you want to represent. Ok, you’ve got all of that? Now you see a story in the Morning Call, a story that ends up being made up, but you don’t know that at the time. You spring to action, because to your credit, you want to help.

Ok, hey, your heart is in the right place, but you’re not in the right place. Your law firm is 3,000 miles away from this family.

Can this firm do the work? I’m sure they can. But if you already are being hit for being a carpetbagger in the Lehigh Valley, maybe hunting for business for a firm in California isn’t the best look. Like I’m 2,000% sure there is an immigration attorney in the Lehigh Valley.

Of course, there was the whole matter of being caught on the wrong side of the lie too. Lyin’ Ryan Mackenzie’s team had a field day with him.

Look, this is amateur hour. This is why you can’t just throw any first time candidate into a Congressional race. This guy is totally out of his element and should probably have shopped for a safer seat in Louisiana, North Carolina, Schuylkill County, Washington DC, California, ah, I give up. He should have just run as a Republican in PA-9, or something.

Washed Up Post

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I’ve decided to take down yesterday’s post. Two reasons:

  1. I’m 10,000% sure the right audience read it. Like all of the right audience. So the point got made. No need to beleaguer the point.
  2. The goal was to let the persons involved know I hear everything they say. They can’t talk freely and safely, even to their candidate.

The race is about the candidates, not some guy not working on the campaign. There will be much more where that came from. Now that I know I can make him mad, you can bank on it.

Are the Democratic Elites Going to Push the Lone Lady Out of the PA-7 Race?

/ Rich Wilkins / 4 Comments

Carol Obando-Derstine is running for Congress in PA-7. I don’t think we’ve ever met, but we have some common friends. She describes herself as “An engineer, advocate, educator, bilingual leader, Mom, and Democrat running for Congress in #PA07 to continue serving her community.” She’s worked for PP&L and Senator Bob Casey. She’s an immigrant to us in the Lehigh Valley, but her roots here include years and years of work time, at least one degree from Lehigh University, and time serving the public in this area. She’s a Democrat, and she is not a carpetbagger. I have many of the same doubts others express in private about her electability, particularly as a first time candidate. With that said, she has picked up major endorsements from our last Congresswoman, EMILY’s List, and BOLD PAC. She is not embarrassing herself in this race whatsoever. Her fundraising so far isn’t super impressive, but it is competitive.

Word on the street though is that the powers that be in the Democratic Party, in both Harrisburg and Washington, are going to ask Carol, Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure, Ex-Republican Ryan Crosswell, and a yet unannounced local office holder who is getting ready to enter the race to all stand aside for a white male, who is also a first time candidate like Carol, and who seems to who have stiffed an old lady out of $55,000. These powers that be are claiming the Governor himself is going to ask all of the candidates to drop out, ask all of the unions who have endorsed to switch their endorsements, and everyone to genuflect to a complete neophyte candidate. They’re going to ask the only woman, and the only person of color in the race to stand down for a white guy who has even less experience than she does running for office, and who has yet to prove he can raise money or do any of the other things a Congressional candidate needs to do. Apparently it’s a much bigger problem that Carol is new to this and hasn’t raised a million dollars yet than it is that this white guy is inexperienced and has no money at the end of July. Do I believe the Governor is actually in on this? No. I can’t believe he’d even entertain such a stupid idea.

I’m going to give Carol some completely unsolicited advice- if someone actually calls her and asks her to get out of the race, be with the Governor or some staff person in DC, she should politely decline. Why would she, as the only woman in a field of four or probably five candidates, drop out? Especially with the support of major political organizations inside the Democratic Party who are going to stick with her as long as she’s in the race? Frankly if they spend on her behalf, in a field that is so male heavy, she’s probably going to win. Again, I have my concerns about her, but a woman held this seat literally until the third day of this year, it’s kind of insulting to think she’s D.O.A. and this yet unnamed new candidate (at least here) is some sort of savior that is going to beat a sitting Congressman. I see no reason Crosswell would or should drop out of this now, almost all of his money is out of state and won’t care what in state powers want. The chances McClure is going to drop out after not running for re-election as Executive are absolutely flat zero. Why would Carol drop out? There’s really no reason she should. I see no way this guy can win the primary with multiple other guys, one from the same geographic space, and at least one other in a similar ideological space. He starts with zero name recognition, less time to raise money, and opposition in his way. There’s no reason Carol should capitulate to his quixotic dreams.

Hunter Biden, Our Spirit Animal

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Let’s be honest- nobody likes the Democratic Party. The left hates them, the right despises them, and the base of the party wonders why we platform every weirdo and nerd that steps forward and can put together a sentence. Political people argue about this as though policy choices cause this. It’s really that our party is infested with inauthentic ass holes and we are run by people who have never met our own base.

But from the rubble… emerges an unlikely hero… Hunter Biden?!?

You couldn’t make this up if you tried. Sure, maybe he’s a crackhead. Maybe he’s weird. But he’s saying what we’re all thinking, and he’s saying it authentically. George Clooney is an asshole and blew the election. The podcast bros are a bunch of trust fund dorks, still living off of writing some other guys speeches ten years ago. Nobody outside of the Beltway gives two shits what Jake Tapper said in his fictional book about Joe Biden. Yes, the party abandoned Biden for all of the dumbest reasons, and they’re basically cowards. Kamala Harris may be flawed, but she’s loyal and gave it her best shot. Joe Biden knew more in his pinky about his job than most of these idiots will learn in their lifetime. Yes, the media gives Trump a pass to say dumb things and make up his own reality, for their benefit. I’m not co-signing everything Hunter has to say here, but let that man cook. All the hit dogs are hollering.

A bunch of mega donors are going to spend lots of money, paying consultants to focus test a bunch of stupid shit to try and create an interesting, authentic, plain spoken face for our party moving forward. For obvious reasons Hunter Biden shouldn’t run for anything, but he’s showing all of the trust fund dorks and fancy degrees exactly what it looks like in the wild. Instead of defending the indefensible, listen to what the guy is saying, and more importantly, how.

Would You Recruit This Candidate to Face Lyin’ Ryan Mackenzie?

/ Rich Wilkins / 44 Comments
This Goof Represents The Most Swing District in America.

There’s not many scenarios where Democrats win the House in 2026 and don’t win PA-7. Joe Biden won it in 2020, Donald Trump did so in 2024, and both times the margins look similar to the state margin, and Pennsylvania basically is the tipping point state right now. One of the reasons I never registered to vote anywhere else while out on the road (besides the fact I was coming back) was that I really do live in the most swing spot in the country.

So it seems that the DCCC may not have been as thrilled with how the race was shaping up. Fundraising amongst the candidates in the field wasn’t matching up with the more metropolis swing districts in New York and California. That sort of makes sense though. There’s not a lot of big donor money in this district. The big donors in Philadelphia and New York are hesitant to put money into a competitive primary. So two of the three candidates are finding it a little harder to raise cash than expected. The other, we’ll just say he’s problematic. Problematic in big ways. Problematic in many ways.

I can’t blame the DCCC for going looking for more candidates. Why not? The more seats you can put on the board, the better. If you don’t feel absolutely great about the candidates you have, keep finding more. Competition should be fierce for an important job. Right? Unfortunately, maybe the DCCC is not looking in the right direction. The candidate they are supposedly recruiting now has some, let’s just say, issues.

Out of respect for the man, I won’t name this first time candidate, yet. He has never held public office, but he has spent his career working for the public. He’s got no experience being a candidate though, and running for Congress is not the place to learn. Digging in a little deeper, things get a little difficult for him though. A friend whom I will not name dropped me a note on the guy today, and he’s got some problems that will dog him in his race. He’s been in foreclosure twice, in 2012 and 2016. One could write that off, all of us normal people have financial problems at some point. He also had a $5,000 legal judgment rendered against him to Midland Bank, which sounds like a credit card or some small loan that he failed to pay. Again, no judgment here. This part of what they told me stuck out though. It goes well beyond just some hard economic times:

He borrowed $55,000.00 from his mother-in-law. Signed a promissory note. Refused to pay. Got sued. Had a trial. Lost. Appealed. Lost. There is currently a unsatisfied $55,000.00 judgment hanging over his head.

Ok, look, there’s being a working class guy that is behind on some bills, which I think we all can sympathize with. Congress could use more guys that understand that feeling. Then there’s stiffing your mother-in-law for $55k and not paying it back even after you lose in court twice. This friend goes on to note that there’s also a divorce with the potential candidate’s first wife out there, which they don’t know what is in there. I don’t know if this was mother-in-law one or mother-in-law two, but I’m guessing this judgment was from the first one. If that’s the case, I’m sure that divorce is messy and I’ll probably get something sent my way on that later.

Stiffing old ladies isn’t a good look. Especially when it fits with a pattern of being bad with money. Stiffing a family member makes it look like maybe the money problems aren’t just a case of tough times, but maybe something worse. It’s hard to tell, but I will bet bourbons to beers that Ryan Mackenzie and the Republican Party will take information like this and absolutely slime this guy if he’s nominated. By the end he’ll be the symbol of elder abuse and financial misconduct in America, not the next Congressman.

This new candidate has went around the district telling people he will enter with the public support of the DCCC, the Governor of Pennsylvania, and the Democratic Leader in the House. I find it hard to believe any of them would be so stupid as to promise all of that to a candidate without doing a little more research than this friend of mine did before sending this info to me. In fact, I first met the Governor like twenty years ago when he was a State House member, the guy is way too smart to put himself into a nasty, competitive primary like this right before re-election (and maybe a run for President?). I definitely don’t see that happening, once they do their research.

Campaigns are hard. This guy has had an honorable career serving the public. This may be biting off a bit more than could be chewed.