We just passed the 34th anniversary of one of the greatest days in the post-World War II world- the death of the Soviet Union. A bunch of hyper-ambitious morons decided to create a government on a theory and a myth, and ended up creating a failed shit hole of a state, an authoritarian, corrupt, awful nightmare of a state. As with most Socialist nations in our world, it turned into a cult of personality towards it’s leaders, complete with rampant corruption and “black markets,” poverty, and all kinds of human rights violations. The world is better off for not having the Soviet Union around today, whatever you think of the governments in the republics that replaced it.
Sure, there are Russians and others from the old empire that miss the power they had at that time. Even so, they’re not desperate to return to the system of government they had. Meanwhile, socialism has failed pretty much everywhere else- North Korea is a hellhole, China basically abandoned the system, Cuba is on the verge of collapse, Venezuela has literal pirates off their coast, Yugoslavia collapsed into a state of war and ethnic cleansing, the rest of Eastern Europe threw out their dictators, East Germany had to build a wall to keep people from leaving, and Bolivia’s economy is now in ruins. Socialism just doesn’t work anywhere. Even countries that didn’t end up in violent chaos ended up turning away from the failed system.
So why do progressives in the Western World, who are actually just old European Social Democrats (a very generous government “safety net.”) want to brand themselves as far leftist nuts? To be clear, Bernie Sanders, AOC, Graham Platner, Bob Brooks, and others are not calling for the government to “seize the means of production.” They don’t want a “First National Energy Company,” and even their “Medicare for All” is just covering everyone under Medicare- which is generally administered by private companies. Why are they associating the policies of a full social safety net with a failed economic and political system that allowed Joseph Stalin to kill millions and millions of his own people? How is this good politics?
Americans are generally smart enough to know that these people are idiots, which is why they don’t win elections outside of comfortably Democratic jurisdictions where primaries decide the winners. It’s one thing to want a generous Social Security program or a higher minimum wage, it’s another altogether to brand yourself a part of a murderous, failed political system. Somehow, a lot of Democrats want to turn to these people to turn their 2024 fate around. It’s a foolish strategy.
Well, the Phillies were busy last week. Not busy, as in signing a major bat, or trading away someone from last year’s lineup, or even signing a starting pitcher. No, they were busy beginning to save some money and re-making the bullpen. Gone is Matt Strahm. In are Jonathan Bowlan, Kyle Backhus, and Zach Pop. The Phillies will have a very lively battle for spots in the bullpen.
There’s been a lot of talk about why Strahm is gone, but most of it is stupid talk. Strahm will make $7,500,000 this coming season. Strahm was set to be between the 4th and 6th option out of the bullpen. This means he wasn’t going to pitch in all high leverage situations. It also means paying him made little to no sense when they lack a starting catcher and anyone who could provide viable protection for their first three hitters from the cleanup spot. In short, it was an obvious need for a team that needs more, and is in the third level of the luxury tax.
Catcher- Rafael Marchan ($1,000,000) and Garrett Stubbs ($925,000). $1,925,000
Infield- Bryce Harper- 1B ($25,384,615), Bryson Stott- 2B ($5,800,000), Trea Turner- SS ($27,272,727), Alec Bohm- 3B ($10,300,000), Edmundo Sosa- Utility Man ($3,900,000), and Otto Kemp ($820,000). $73,477,342
Outfield- Adolis Garcia- RF ($10,000,000), Justin Crawford- CF ($820,000, not yet on the roster), Brandon Marsh- LF ($4,500,000), and Johan Rojas ($820,000). $16,140,000
Untraded Contract- Nick Castellanos ($20,000,000). $20,000,000
Additional 40 man roster players (All are pro-rated $820,000 deals)– Kyle Backhus- LRP, Jean Cabrera- RSP, Moises Chase- RSP, Yoniel Curet– RSP, Nolan Hoffman- RRP, Seth Johnson- RRP, Max Lazar- RRP, Alex McFarlane- RSP, Andrew Painter- RSP, Alan Rangel- RSP, Pedro Leon- OF, Gabriel Rincones- OF, Weston Wilson- OF
This leaves the Phillies with 39 players on the roster at a cost of $282,398,771. Weston Wilson, Zach Pop, Jonathan Bowlan, Rafael Marchan, Garrett Stubbs, and of course Zach McCambley are bubble players with no options to go to the minors right now, so they would lose their 40 man spot if they don’t make the team. Moises Chase will go immediately on the 60 day IL, while recovering from Tommy John, so a spot will open at the end of Spring Training on the roster. Zack Wheeler will begin the season on the IL, but it’s questionable which list. By my count, that means the Phillies only have one 40 man spot to hand out right now, but can sign more players on minor league deals to come to camp and compete, as they will probably have one or two spots available.
The obvious issues are there right now- they don’t have a starting catcher, their rotation has a serious lack of depth, and they still don’t have a cleanup hitter. I probably would not have given Pop a guaranteed deal and roster spot given all of that, but you almost certainly need more relievers than you think. I don’t see many ways the Phillies can re-sign JT Realmuto AND add a middle of the order bat right now, let alone go sign Imai or Ranger Suarez to join this rotation. Yes, you’re going to get rid of Castellanos and at least $820,000 of salary almost assuredly, but that doesn’t change much. You need someone to take on Castellanos and something like $5 million of his salary to really free up much room, but the spot alone would be nice. It would be nice to trade Taijuan Walker and free up $8-10 million of his $18 million salary, but given the depth issues in the rotation, that’s not feasible. Unless there is payroll flexibility for a specific player (Probably Imai or Okamoto, given the Phillies stated desire to get into the Japanese player market), you really only have flexibility to make one big splash signing. If you want Bichette or Bregman, you probably can’t have JT or another starter, and you almost certainly need to move at least one of Bohm and Stott, if not both. There may be a world where you can do Okamoto and Realmuto both, given what Murakami ended up getting in the end, but even there you will need sign off from John Middleton to take the payroll up a bit, and you still have to move Bohm to do it.
What would I do? I’d go all in on one of Bichette/Bregman/Okamoto/Eugenio Suarez, try to dump Bohm, Stott, Castellanos, and maybe even Walker to free up the money, and pivot off of Realmuto to a cheaper catching option. I’d rather have Realmuto back, but if a guy with a .700 OPS, who gets most of his current value from his defense, is going to hold you hostage for a third year that you know won’t be ideal, just sign the best defensive catcher on the market (or trade for one), and bite the bullet that you’ll pick up the offense elsewhere. Hopefully they can still work a deal out with Realmuto and find a few bucks of savings somewhere else to pick up one more bat. I just am less and less hopeful for that.
We have a new #1. At least for now? Sure, Seattle took over the lead in the NFC by themselves on Thursday. Now all they have to do is beat Carolina and San Francisco on the road to hold it. No big deal. The Rams have a stupid easy finish, so there’s no margin for error for Seattle. Meanwhile San Francisco and Chicago remain alive as well, and well, they play each other this week. Green Bay still could factor into everything, and they finish with a desperate Baltimore team and a game in Minnesota. Philadelphia will be #2 or 3, and it’s probably three, but they have a tough game in Buffalo before coming home for Washington.
In the AFC everything is a mess. Denver probably still finishes first, but the Chargers still can catch them for the division, and they just lost to Jacksonville, who can also catch them. New England loses the tiebreaker to Denver, but that’s assuming they don’t win the top spot outright. Of course, if they don’t win out, they may not even hold off Buffalo. By the way, Houston is right in this thing too. And Pittsburgh, they just keep winning.
You knew this was coming. Crooksy’s allies released polling, and well, it was garbage. Change Research did the poll entirely online, and juiced it up as far as they could for Crooksy. It was much lower quality than earlier polling that showed Crooksy going nowhere. This garbage push poll omits Mark Pinsley, the race’s real far left-winger altogether, puts Crooksy first in their order, and waters down the other candidates bios about as far as they could. It’s almost like they wanted a result that matched their narrative?
Bob Brooks was a Bethlehem firefighter for twenty years and is the current president of the Pennsylvania Firefighters Association. As a former dishwasher, bartender, warehouse worker, and now a voice for Pennsylvania’s firefighters, Bob Brooks knows what it takes to fight for working people concerned about rising costs. He wants to make the rich pay their fair share of taxes and tackle rising prices. His broad appeal has won him the endorsement of Governor Josh Shapiro and Bernie Sanders.
Ryan Crosswell is the son of a special education teacher and small business owner who became a Marine and federal prosecutor. At the Justice Department’s public integrity unit, he investigated corruption in government and had a long track record of prosecutions. When Donal Trump became president, he resigned on principle. He is running for Congress to be a voice in Washington for Pennsylvania families.
Carol Orbando-Derstine was born in Columbia and immigrated to the US when she was three. After graduating from Penn State, she worked in a Head Start program and became the executive director of two Lehigh Valley non profits. She also worked as a regional manager for U.S. Senator Bob Casey. As the first Latina running in the 7th Congressional District, Carol understands local families’ challenges, and she has the experience to deliver real solutions.
Lamont McClure is a lawyer and longtime member of the Northampton County Council. He is the current Northampton County Executive and is known for his work to protect workers and address the fentanyl crisis. McClure stopped the sale of the county’s nursing home to a for-profit company and prevented warehouses from destroying hundreds of acres of open space. He has won praise for improving county services.
Now, here’s what the PPP Poll back in the Summer said about all five candidates:
Carol Obando-Derstine, is an engineer who has dedicated her life to her community. Immigrating from Colombia at three, she overcame financial and language barriers and now holds two master’s degrees. She worked in a Head Start program and became executive director of SkillsUSA Council and the Children’s Coalition of the Lehigh Valley and has taught at Northampton Community College. Carol spent nearly a decade working on energy issues at PPL Electric Utilities helping people and companies lower their utility bills. Do you find this a very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not a convincing reason to vote for Carol Obando-Derstine?
Here’s the next one: Ryan Crosswell is the proud son of a special education teacher and small business owner. After 9/11 he joined the United States Marine Corps, and he still serves as a Lt. Col. in the Marine Corps Reserve. After the Marines, Ryan became a federal prosecutor, serving in the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Baton Rouge, San Diego, and Washington, D.C., prosecuting fraudsters, violent criminals, and drug traffickers. Most recently, Ryan served in the Department of Justice’s Public Integrity Section but resigned rather than following politically motivated orders. Do you find this a very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not a convincing reason to vote for Ryan Crosswell?
Here’s the next one: Mark Pinsley is the Lehigh County Controller and a local small business owner. He put himself through college by enlisting in the Army Reserves and working for his grandfather’s business, then raised money to start his own company after graduation. Prior to becoming Controller, he served as a South Whitehall Township Commissioner. As Lehigh County Controller, he has investigated Children and Youth Services to help parents who had their kids taken away without cause, and he has saved the county millions in healthcare spending. Do you find this a very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not a convincing reason to vote for Mark Pinsley?
Here’s the next one: Lamont McClure is the current County Executive in Northampton County and is endorsed by many labor unions. Raised in Carbon County, McClure earned his law degree and fought in court to hold large corporations accountable, including working on behalf of former steelworkers who were poisoned by asbestos for 17 years and getting opioid manufacturers to pay for the damage they caused. As county executive, he led the effort to get 25 million for small businesses in the county to help them survive during the pandemic, he fought for working people, passed seven budgets without a tax increase and cutting property taxes, protected Gracedale nursing home from being sold to a for-profit corporation which would put our seniors at risk, and preserved over 3,800 acres of farmland. Do you find this a very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not a convincing reason to vote for Lamont McClure?
Here’s the next one: Bob Brooks is president of the Pennsylvania Professional Fire Fighters Association and a small business owner. He served more than 20 years as a firefighter and EMT for the city of Bethlehem before retiring in March. He has taken on many public safety leadership positions locally and statewide, including on Gov. Josh Shapiro’s transition committee on emergency management as a member of the Pennsylvania State Fire Advisory Board. He has coached many levels of baseball in the community, most recently at Nazareth Area High School.
So, I’m going to give you a bit of truth- removing Pinsley really makes this new poll absolute garbage. Mark isn’t dropping out, he has told the minions from Harrisburg as much. He’s also the candidate who would represent the biggest challenge to the Bernie Sanders endorsement of Crooksy. I guess if you removed that guy, put Crooksy first, give him the only bio even close to what any of them are going to say about themselves, and put the initial front-runner last, while leading off by calling him a lawyer and a politician, sure, maybe Crooksy does well. But if you’re going to do that, why not lead by calling Crooksy a deadbeat and Crosswell a Republican. About the only common ground in the two polls is Carol’s bio being similar, and she polls decently well in both.
Look, I think it’s fairly obvious that Crooksy’s team had this poll done, and McClure’s team was behind the first one. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure either out. Neither really tested negatives on each other, and this poll doesn’t include anything about negatives on Crosswell. At least the PPP Poll didn’t try to put McClure first and dumb down anybody’s bio though. This poll isn’t worth the paper it’s printed on.
None of this really matters, because even the best message still relies on money. You have to have enough money to tell someone your story before you even can hope they’ll believe it. You also have to hope no one else has enough money to tell people the down side of your story. In other words, will anyone have the money to tell the story I’ve told you about Crooksy? If the answer is no, then all of this is irrelevant. I guess you know my view of the guy, and again, if no one puts the money behind that, what does that matter? If McClure can cobble together a half-million dollars to tell his good bio, sure, I still think he wins this. That is, unless someone else has a 4:1 spending advantage on him. So basically, what I’m telling you is, unless independent expenditures and super pacs come into this primary, I doubt anyone actually spends enough money on their own to move this race.
Apocalypse Vibes 