I read today’s Politico piece about Biden Administration alums being mad about Karine Jean-Pierre’s upcoming book. I’ll be honest, I went into the piece expecting to agree with them. I didn’t think she was a very effective Press Secretary. I did think she was self-promoting. I had my biases. Then I read the article. Karine Jean-Pierre is right. From what it sounds like her book is going to say, she’s also writing something that absolutely, positively, without one shadow of a doubt had to be written.
Joe Biden’s White House never behaved as Joe Biden’s White House. It never did feel loyal and authentic to Joe’s brand. I would have guessed that Jean-Pierre was a part of that. It definitely appears not to be so. Her discontent with the decision of party elites to dump Joe Biden in last summer’s “switcheroo” was probably shared by a larger number of people than the margin of defeat for Vice-President Harris. Essentially a group of donors and a few has-been high level Democratic elected officials decided to nuke his re-election over their concerns and nominate someone who could not possibly win (This would have been true with virtually any Democrat, for the record.). What I think is more nauseating for some of us is the continual patting on the back that Beltway Democrats still give themselves for doing this. It failed miserably. There is nothing to be proud of. I was fine voting for Vice-President Harris myself, but I said on the day he dropped that she had no chance. Any non-brain dead Democrat knew the election was over when Biden dropped out.
I rarely read these books, so don’t hold your breath that I’ll read it. I will say this though- I’m glad someone is doing the pushback. While anonymous aides and donors further their narrative through corporate tools like Jake Tapper, the truth is very clear and obviously in front of us- the Democratic Party nuked their only chance to win because many of the people tasked with keeping the party in power never really wanted him anyway. Would Biden have won? His poll numbers were really not all that much changed after his June debate. We’ll never know. The disloyalty to him made it virtually impossible anyone was going to win though. Maybe it was mishandled from the decision to run again, maybe we blew it in June, but who cares? The incompetence at the high levels was laid bare before us, and I’m glad someone said it.
It takes a lot to get me excited to see another person, especially if they are famous. I must admit that when I took the above picture of Pope Francis during his 2015 visit to America, I was in awe of him. For the most part, even famous and powerful people are just people. Sure, he’s the only Pope I’ve ever seen in person, but that’s not what excited me. What excited me was that in a world full of leaders who inevitably disappoint you, he actually tried very hard not to. I’ll always appreciate that.
Most of the eulogies we’ll hear about him will either focus on the politics of his papacy or on the doctrinal proclamations he made, and I think they both miss the point. As a matter of policy, Pope Francis did not change the church’s position on gay marriage, abortion, female priests, the death penalty, charity for the poor, or accepting refugees. On all of those issues he was essentially in the same place as Benedict or John Paul. Even so, he completely reset the tone. He said “who am I to judge,” echoing Jesus saying “let he who is without sin cast the first stone.” He went into the streets with the poor, the sick, and the homeless. He walked the walk on acts of charity. He used his great power to shine light on the people that needed light. His presence, as an Argentinian Pope, opened the doors of power to the global South. He met with leaders across faith lines and held dialogue. Pope Francis sent a clear message- the doors to his church and his faith were open to everyone, even the sinners.
So much of his Papacy was about healing wounds and divides in the church, and the biggest one he faced was the child sex abuse scandal that scarred the faith for decades. He was the first Pope in a while who wasn’t clearly tarnished by it, and I would have liked him to have gone further in his condemnation of it. I think that has to be said. I think he struggled with how far to go at times. He did eventually defrock bishops and cardinals for their failings though, and offered the first truly sincere apology of the church for their failings. It was, more so than not, a step in the right direction. I would say the same for his acknowledgement of other atrocities, such as those committed against Native Americans, as well. You can’t heal all past wrongs on this Earth, but honesty is at least a start.
Pope Francis was a mainstream Catholic leader, however he was a Pope of the people. He wanted to be inclusive in his faith and help people who needed helping. He achieved his mission. Now we can only hope a new leader emerges that is committed to taking the cause further. May God have mercy on his soul.
Allegations about the U.S. government hiding extraterrestrial beings or technology often point to specific locations, primarily based on whistleblower claims, declassified documents, and popular culture. These claims lack definitive evidence and are frequently dismissed by official sources, but they persist in public discourse. Below are the key sites commonly mentioned, based on available information, including recent web sources and posts on X:
Area 51, Nevada:
Claims: This secretive military base, part of the Nevada Test and Training Range, is the most famous alleged storage site for alien spacecraft and bodies. Whistleblower David Grusch, a former Air Force intelligence officer, testified in 2023 that the U.S. government has recovered “non-human” biologics and spacecraft, with Area 51 often cited in related conspiracy theories. X posts, like one from @uBF2fV1cVQxRjQo in 2023, claim “dozens of alien bodies” are stored there, though these reference unverified sources, including a video flagged as containing fake or unrelated content. Another post from @1996ID4 in 2024 claims Area 51 has held an alien spacecraft and three preserved bodies for nearly 40 years, calling it a “win for big tin foil” but offering no evidence.
Official Response: The Pentagon and the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) deny these claims, stating in a 2024 report that no credible evidence supports extraterrestrial activity or storage at Area 51. The base is known for testing classified aircraft, like the U-2 and F-117 Nighthawk, which may explain some UFO sightings.
Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio:
Claims: This base, particularly its Hangar 18, is frequently mentioned as a storage site for alien craft and biologics, especially tied to the 1947 Roswell Incident. A 2023 X post by @UAPJames cites rumors among staff about “bodies stored in freezers” at Wright-Patterson, referencing journalists George Knapp and Chris Sharp. Another post by @planethunter56 in 2024 claims the base stores “recovered craft/NHI biologics,” though without substantiation.
Official Response: The Air Force’s 1995 “Roswell Report” concluded that materials recovered near Roswell were from a classified balloon project, not extraterrestrial. AARO’s 2024 report found no evidence of alien storage at Wright-Patterson, attributing claims to misinterpretations of classified programs.
Nellis Air Force Base, Nevada:
Claims: Less commonly cited, Nellis is mentioned in some conspiracy circles as a “spaceport” for non-human intelligence (NHI) ships or a base for extraterrestrial entities. An X post by @planethunter56 in 2024 alleges it serves as a “Tall White home” and spaceport, but this lacks any verifiable backing and leans heavily on speculative lore.
Official Response: No official reports or investigations link Nellis to extraterrestrial activity. It’s a major testing and training site, often associated with Area 51 due to proximity, which may fuel speculation.
Porton Down, United Kingdom:
Claims: Though not a U.S. site, recent X posts from April 2025 (e.g., @TruthSeeker84x3, @Lizzie_d30, @Sheeraz037) highlight claims that this British defense laboratory stores alien bodies. These stem from a news article, but the posts express skepticism about government denials, with @TruthSeeker84x3 questioning official trustworthiness.
Official Response: Porton Down’s official statements deny such claims, focusing on its role in chemical and biological defense research. No credible evidence supports extraterrestrial storage there.
Other Alleged Sites:
Dulce Base, New Mexico: An unverified underground facility rumored to house aliens, mentioned in fringe theories but absent from credible reports or official investigations.
Kona Blue Program: A proposed Department of Homeland Security initiative, referenced in AARO’s 2024 report, was allegedly meant to cover up “nonhuman biologics” but was rejected for lacking merit. It’s not tied to a specific location but fuels speculation about secret programs.
Overseas Facilities: The @planethunter56 X post vaguely mentions an overseas building used for “laudatory purposes,” but this is too ambiguous to verify.
Critical Analysis:
Lack of Evidence: Despite high-profile claims, like Grusch’s 2023 testimony about a “multi-decade” UAP retrieval program, no physical evidence—photos, documents, or artifacts—has been publicly verified. AARO’s 2024 report, based on 80 years of investigations, found “no empirical evidence” for extraterrestrial technology or bodies, suggesting many claims stem from misidentified classified projects (e.g., high-altitude balloons, stealth aircraft). Grusch himself admitted his knowledge is second-hand, based on interviews with 40 witnesses, and he couldn’t share specifics in public.
Misinterpretation: AARO notes that witnesses often mistook sensitive U.S. programs for alien activity, citing examples like the F-117 Nighthawk, which one interviewee claimed was an extraterrestrial craft.
Cultural Influence: Public belief, reinforced by media like The X-Files and viral X posts, amplifies these narratives. A 2019 Gallup poll found 68% of Americans believe the government hides UFO information, showing widespread skepticism.
Secrecy Concerns: Whistleblowers like Grusch and Luis Elizondo (2024 testimony) argue excessive secrecy hides UAP programs, potentially misallocating taxpayer funds. However, their claims remain unverified, and AARO denies any cover-up.
Sentiment on X: Recent X posts reflect distrust in government denials, with users like @TruthSeeker84x3 questioning official narratives about Porton Down. Others, like @1996ID4, treat Area 51 claims as a lighthearted victory for conspiracists, while @planethunter56’s detailed list of sites leans into speculative enthusiasm without evidence. These posts highlight ongoing public fascination but lack credible substantiation.
Conclusion: The most frequently alleged U.S. sites for storing aliens or extraterrestrial technology are Area 51 and Wright-Patterson AFB, with Nellis AFB and vague overseas locations mentioned less often. Internationally, Porton Down has surfaced in recent claims. However, no concrete evidence supports these allegations, and official reports consistently attribute sightings to terrestrial technology or misidentification. The persistence of these claims reflects distrust in government transparency, amplified by whistleblower testimony and social media, but without verifiable proof, they remain speculative. If you want me to focus on a specific site or dive into a particular claim, let me know!
The JFK Files are many pages. So I asked Twitter/X’s AI, Grok to answer an easy question- are there any bombshells? Here’s what I got:
The newly declassified JFK assassination files, released in March 2025, contain over 77,000 pages of documents. While they provide details on CIA operations during the early 1960s, particularly in Cuba and Mexico, no major revelations directly challenge the Warren Commission’s conclusion that Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone in assassinating President John F. Kennedy on November 22, 1963. Here are the key points:
CIA Surveillance and Operations: The files reveal specifics about CIA surveillance of Oswald in Mexico City, where he visited Soviet and Cuban embassies months before the assassination. They also detail covert operations, like tapping phones in Mexico City and infiltrating Fidel Castro’s government with agents, including 14 Cuban diplomats on the CIA payroll. One document mentions a CIA plot to contaminate Cuban sugar shipments to the Soviet Union with a chemical to ruin its taste.
JFK’s Mistrust of CIA: Unredacted memos, such as one from Arthur Schlesinger Jr., highlight Kennedy’s concerns about CIA influence, noting that nearly half of U.S. embassy political officers in 1961 were CIA agents. This underscores tensions between JFK and the agency, though it’s not directly tied to the assassination.
No Smoking Gun: Experts like Jefferson Morley call the release significant for transparency, shedding light on CIA propaganda and Castro assassination plots. However, historians like Fredrik Logevall and Timothy Naftali say nothing upends the lone gunman theory. The files don’t include some expected records, like 2,400 newly discovered FBI documents or certain IRS files.
Privacy Issues: The release controversially included personal information, like Social Security numbers of House Select Committee on Assassinations staff, raising concerns about sloppy handling.
Conspiracy Theories Persist: Despite no earth-shattering evidence, the files fuel speculation due to their volume and details about CIA activities. Posts on X claim “bombshells,” but these often exaggerate existing theories, like unverified CIA conspiracies, without concrete proof.
The documents enrich Cold War history but don’t resolve the assassination’s core questions. If you’re chasing a specific angle—like a particular document or theory—let me know, and I can dig deeper
Happy Opening Day of the 2025 Major League Baseball season. As we begin the six month slog that is baseball’s regular season, I will remind everyone of the cardinal rule of baseball- the law of averages will always win. Bad teams will win games, bad players will have good moments, and good teams will have losing streaks, but in the end the deepest and best rosters will survive the season. We tend to try and not freak out about one NFL game going badly, well that equals approximately 9.53 MLB games. So at least wait 19 games in until you freak out.
My Phillies won 95 games and the NL East last year, but losing to the god damned Mets in the playoffs and watching the Dodgers (who we went 6-1 against) win the World Series made last year one of the most agitating seasons ever. There seems to be two schools of thought on the team. One is that they’re a year older, haven’t won yet, and are in the hardest division in baseball, so they should step back. The other is that they have the best rotation in baseball, have seen their win total go up in each of the last six full seasons, and have the most post-season wins in the league the last three years, so they should finally get lucky. It remains to be seen if they can stop chasing pitches out of the strike zone, but they still should be among the elites in a National League that is better than the American League. For my money, the NL East will be the most fun to watch division in the league, with three elite teams, a young and talented fourth place team, and Miami to go visit if you want to see your team win some games and lay on a beach.
A lot of national writers seem to want to pick Atlanta to win the NL East, mostly because at some point soon they will add Ronald Acuna and Spencer Strider back to the roster healthy, and with all due respect to Juan Soto, no team in the division will add that kind of talent this year. That’s assuming both come back at consistent 100% form, which eventually they will, but shouldn’t be assumed immediately. This team did lose a consistent high end starter though in Max Fried. The Braves feel like a playoff lock to me, even so.
The Mets are hard to read. By keeping Pete Alonso after signing Soto, this is a really scary lineup. Francisco Lindor was MVP level last season and they have some young talent ready to help this group. Can they pitch though? They already have some injuries, and this is a rotation that lacks a high end #1 (I’d hear an argument on a healthy Senga, but the Mets aren’t exactly raising expectations on him). What they lack in ace material, the Mets do make up for with starting depth. I don’t like writing this, but I do think they will hang in there enough to win a lot of games.
The shame for these three teams is that there’s really only four playoff spots available to them, so the room for error is minimal (you can’t win the other two divisions, so only 4 of 6 spots are possible). As I look around the rest of the NL, I see six other teams with some degree of a chance. Out west the Dodgers are a lock, Arizona and San Diego are very good, and San Francisco is worth watching. In the central, the Brewers and Cubs are the only two teams with the depth and talent to win. So by my math, nine teams will battle for six spots.
Over in the AL, it’s a bit of a mess. The Yankees pitching is kind of a mess, the Astros no longer terrify everyone, Cleveland tends to be good every other year, Baltimore seems to have stepped back, Kansas City and Detroit are hard to project, Texas looks good, Boston is back, Seattle feels unpredictable, nobody knows if Minnesota can recover from last year’s collapse, and everyone but me seems to be hating on Toronto (with good reason). That really only leaves four bad teams, some being historically bad. There’s no obvious runaway favorite though.
So, with all of that said, here’s some regular season predictions:
AL East- This feels to me like there’s no right answer. I like Boston to edge out the Yankees, mostly because I like their health and pitching better, right now. If the Yankees health improves, a month ago I thought they’d run away with it. This really should be Baltimore’s time, but they will need to pick up a pitcher to have a shot. I still like Toronto’s roster, but the uncertainty around their future seems to be a distraction. Tampa plays in minor league park, and maybe that’s an omen for the season.
AL Central- Other than the White Sox finishing last, anything could happen here. On paper, Cleveland could be better than last year, with Bieber and Means getting healthy and joining an already good rotation. I feel safer that Kansas City will repeat last year than Detroit, but both have a lot of talent. Unfortunately I don’t see the Twins pulling it together, though I guess the talent is there. I’ll take Cleveland here, because I don’t think last year was a fluke.
AL West- I feel pretty strongly that the Rangers bounce back this year. I see the Astros stepping back to at least second, if not third. The Angels are literally hoping Trout is healthy enough to trade, so figure they get last. The A’s play in a minor league park, which is again, an omen. Seattle is the team I can’t figure out. I’ll put them in second for now.
AL Playoff Prediction- Cleveland (AL Central), Texas (AL West), Boston (AL East), New York (Wild Card 1), Kansas City (Wild Card 2), and Baltimore (Wild Card 3).
NL West- There’s just too much talent and depth in Los Angeles for the Dodgers to not win. I like Arizona’s off-season more than San Diego’s, so put them in that order. I liked San Francisco’s off-season, but they’re not there yet. It will be fun to see how many games behind Colorado ends up.
NL Central- Pittsburgh and Cincinnati often behave like poverty franchises, but it’s impressive to watch St. Louis try to pull it off. I’m going Cincinnati three, Pittsburgh four, and St. Louis five. That leaves two teams to fight for the division. Chicago is here based solely on being the only real big market. Milwaukee has actually run their team pretty well. Seriously, Chicago traded for one year of Kyle Tucker, then traded Cody Bellinger in a salary dump, then DFA’ed the guy they got for him today. Wtf? They have talent, but seemingly no idea how to use it. Milwaukee may have taken a step back, but they still seem to be the smart ones here. Eventually someone else has to win though, right? Ok, I’ll take Chicago.
NL East- Ok, the easy parts first here- Washington fourth, Miami dead last. Then it gets fun. My concern with the Mets is pitching. I worry about the Phillies line-up after Harper and Schwarber. Atlanta has to stay healthy and maintain last year’s pitching, which feels unlikely. I’ll take my Phillies, because I expect big years from Harper and Turner, to go along with great pitching. I think the Mets out slug the Braves for second, mostly because I think Acuna will need to get his feet under him for a while after his latest ACL injury.
NL Playoff Prediction- Los Angeles (NL West), Philadelphia (NL East), Chicago (NL Central), New York (WildCard 1), Arizona (Wild Card 2), and Atlanta (Wild Card 3).
We’ll come back to who wins in October in a moment. Shohei Ohtani will win the NL MVP, because it’s preordained, but he won’t be the best offensive player or pitcher. I expect Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, Kyle Tucker, Francisco Lindor, and Freddie Freeman to all have MVP level seasons. I’m taking Trea Turner to win the batting title and Pete Alonso to win the RBI title. Ohtani will win the homer title and win the award. Corey Seager will edge out Jose Ramirez on the AL side. Aaron Judge will be good, but I’m guessing he misses some time. I still think Judge edges out Vlad Jr. for the home run title, Jose Ramirez edges out Vlad in RBI’s, and Bobby Witt Jr. edges him out in batting again.
Paul Skenes seems to be everyone’s Cy Young pick, and he’s nasty, but the field will be stiff. Corbin Burnes, Zack Wheeler, and Spencer Strider will be in the mix. Never pick the favorite, so I’m taking my guy, Wheeler. As an aside, I’m predicting Ohtani throws about 100 innings. In the AL, it’s hard to argue with Tarik Skubal. Garrett Crochet and Jacob de Grom will make a fight of it. I’m going to get risky and pick Jacob de Grom.
I’ll take Cam Smith to win AL Rookie of the Year and Bruce Bochy to be AL Manager of the Year. Roki Sasaki will win the NL Rookie of the Year award, while Rob Thomson will win the NL Manager of the Year award.
Ok, so now the playoffs. I’m taking Boston over Baltimore and New York over Kansas City in the AL Wild Card round. I’ll take Texas over Boston in the AL divisional round, while Cleveland beats New York. I have Cleveland edging Texas for the AL Pennant.
In the NL, I’m taking Atlanta over Chicago in the NL Wild Card round, while the Diamondbacks beat the Mets. I’m taking Arizona to again beat the Dodgers, and the Phillies to beat the Braves in the NL divisional round. I have the Phillies winning the NL Pennant over Arizona.
So a Philadelphia-Cleveland World Series… of course I’ve got my guys. Play ball.
A week ago today, Congressional Democrats sure had some real leverage. The Republican Party controlled the White House, both houses of Congress, every agency in the government, and the courts, but needed Democratic votes in the Senate to pass a funding bill to keep the government open. Senate Democrats half the ability to kill the completely partisan House spending plan and force a bipartisan plan that rolled back much of Donald Trump and Elon Musk’s DOGE cuts. If Republicans refused to make an agreement, Democrats could have walked away and left them holding the bag. After all, the offer on the table was absolutely nothing at all. Trump told them to pound sand.
By now you know what happened. Chuck Schumer’s Senate Democrats, fearing that Trump’s White House would destroy the government if they let it shut down, sent 20% of their caucus over to bend the knee. They took the offer of nothing and gave the Republicans a hand. In the week since, the Trump Administration has still managed to burn down the government. He signed an executive order to basically close the Department of Education. He held an infomercial for Tesla at the White House. They ignored a court order to halt deportations without having hearings to determine if the people being deported were even immigrants or not. They even took down Jackie Robinson’s biography page at the Department of Defense, saying the Hall-of-Famer and veteran of war fell under their anti-DEI policy. It turns out that regardless of whether the Democrats voted to fund the government or not, Trump was going to Trump.
We just had a four year Presidency where the underlying theme was restoring normalcy. It turns out the public was completely not interested. This shouldn’t be that shocking. Basically since 9/11, public polling has said the American public almost constantly feels our country has been on the wrong track. It turns out that terror attacks, Enron, Iraq, priests molesting kids, a bank crash, Bernie Madoff’s ponzi scheme, school shootings, the Patriot Act, Afghanistan, the bank bailouts, COVID, Me Too, Epstein, celebrities stealing PPP loans, opioids, inflation, a broken immigration system, wars in the Ukraine, Syria, and Gaza, and probably lots of bad shit I’m forgetting, has left people feeling as though the world is in decay. It turns out that giving us some unchecked social media, cryptocurrencies, and trash reality TV isn’t making us feel better. Returning to normal doesn’t sound that appealing. Being the party that insists we’ll make it normal again doesn’t help much. Maybe, just maybe, burning it down in the name of a fight over something, like maybe Social Security and Medicaid, would be pretty appealing.
Democrats need to lay out some sort of new vision. Many people who were loyal Obama voters 15 years ago have given up on the product being offered. Responding to banks melting down our economy with a bailout and not jail sentences in the name of a better regulatory system for the economy we have wasn’t it. Responding to people without health care with a better system to buy health care doesn’t excite people. Responding to a crooked student loan system by giving people some forgiveness while leaving the system in tact, only to predictably have it struck down in court, wasn’t popular. Responding to a broken and unfair immigration system with some executive orders and hoping it went away, well you get the point. Continuing to put up some smart, corporate, highly educated Congressional candidates who promise to “run the system better” and maybe throw around some buzz words like “empathy,” is about as appealing as Taco Bell leftovers in your fridge from two weeks ago. The status quo blows, and everyone knows it. Not one fucking halfway normal human being wants to “bend the cost curve” on health care, they want greater coverage for less money out of their pockets.
The Democrats had a chance to demand some good things a week ago, and they passed on it. They passed on it because they were afraid that if they shut down the status quo they’ve spent a generation defending, we would be worse off. Most of the public thinks we’ve been worse off for many years. All the shock to the system they were afraid of, we’re getting anyway. Say whatever you want about Trump, at least he can tell which way the wind is blowing.
One of the most debated questions of 1960’s politics is still a subject of great debate: what would have happened if LBJ hadn’t dropped out in 1968? If you want to get older political hacks into a debate, just ask them this. Some of them literally end up debating themselves.
The new emerging “group think” inside the Beltway and the political press is that if Joe Biden had never run in 2024, or dropped out earlier, Kamala Harris or some other “stronger” Democrat would have been better off. The number of “if/then” off ramps in the theory alone probably should disqualify it. The popular theory now though is that the problems in 2024 were somehow “local” to Biden and his team, and the party would have been better with some other mythical candidate that could separate from his record. I’m making the assumption that they think some other candidate could have taken some demonstrably different position that would have drawn out more Democrats or converted some third party or Republican voters. I’m very skeptical. Joe Biden had political weaknesses. There’s no one else who would seem likely to navigate those rough waters easier in the party and environment that existed in 2024.
Presidential elections are not a job interview. Resume comparisons don’t win or lose them. They are not battles to show who has superior white paper positions on specific policy issues. They are largely contests to articulate a broad cultural vision for the country that appeals to more people. The Democratic Party being mostly a coalition of interest groups puts them at a disadvantage against a party that is mostly a cultural and ideological unified front. Democratic candidates have to do outreach that is interest group specific, and sometimes puts groups at odds with each other. It’s very hard to do that and also present that as a strong, unifying cultural vision of what kind of country you’re building. Biden, for his faults, had a fairly sturdy brand. Anyone running in his place in 2024 would have had to build that. Yes, more time would have been nice. Given that they would not have been President at the outset, I’m not sure how anyone believes they wouldn’t have been forced into some fairly uncomfortable political compromises. This was an issue for Kamala Harris, but it would have been even worse for someone attempting to beat her for the nomination.
The truth is that the Democratic brand is further from the average voter right now than the Republican brand. Given how ideological wealthy, big Democratic donors and small dollar online Democratic voters are right now, no one was going to enter and move the Democratic Party fundamentally in its image, unless they were personally a billionaire that could somehow evade those donors demands. Virtually no Governor or Senator currently alive could have entered the race and evaded Republican attack ads on inflation and being for “they/them,” or not backing police. Maybe a major celebrity with a brand could have outrun those labels. Democrats have been resistant to nominating those kinds of candidates.
Biden and his inner circle, after a deceptively good midterm election, decided to run him for re-election because they thought he had the best chance of winning. My estimation is that they were likely right, and certainly no definitive evidence exists that says they’re wrong. Had Biden not been the nominee in 2020, Democrats probably would have lost. There’s sufficient evidence to say they’re wrong were likely to lose either way in 2024. Biden started from a better position than anyone else though, and remains the only person to have beaten Trump. Most of this narrative that Democrats probably would have been better if Biden was out of the way earlier is just spit balling by interest group and media leaders that didn’t get why Biden won the first time. This is why I have genuine worries about the future of the Democratic Party.
I realize we’re here because the Democratic Party decided to surrender all of it’s credibility in recent times trying to be a pluralistic political party in a time of simplistic, contrarian thought, but hear me out- we actually owed a better fate to Ukrainians. We owed them better morally. We owed them better as a matter of policy. We owed them better based on promises and obligations. Late last week our resident edge lord Vice-President made sure to make clear, right next to his boss, that we withdrew from all of that. I’m sure the corks popped in the Kremlin.
First, a bit about the country they are abandoning. The Ukraine as a country and culture is one of the oldest, pre-dating Russia even by about 400 years. It is the second largest nation by land in Europe, and has it’s own language. There’s exactly no reason to think they should actually be a part of Russia. They were absorbed into the Soviet Union in 1919. In 1941 they were overrun by the Nazis. Over 1.5 million Ukrainian Jews were murdered. Over 2 million Ukrainians were enslaved in Germany. The Nazis withheld food from the country. Some Ukrainians cooperated with the Nazis, mostly in exchange for food, so after the Soviets regained control, they punished Ukrainians. After losing 5 million in the war, and having 10 million left homeless, Stalin sent hundreds of thousands of “disloyal” Ukrainians to Siberia and other work camps. Much like Putin today, Stalin accused Ukrainians of generally being Nazis. He closed down the Greek Catholic Church. His policy of Russification moved Russians in to replace Ukrainians and pushed people to speak Russian. Greek Catholics were “reunified” with the Russian Orthodox Church. Ukrainians artists and writers were persecuted. While things got somewhat better under Khrushchev, his decision to give Crimea to the Ukraine was a big part of why today’s war is happening. In 1959 he forced schools to start teaching in Russian, as he began his own Russification efforts. Following Khrushchev’s removal, Brezhnev cracked down even further on Ukrainians, installing his protege Shcherbytsky, who lead the Ukrainian Soviet until 1989. It was a period of economic deterioration, nuclear crisis (Chernobyl), a crack down on human rights activists, and Russification. The horrors of the Soviet period badly damaged Ukrainian political and cultural life.
Now that the history lesson is mostly over, here’s the important part. In 1994 the United States, Russia, France, and the United Kingdom signed the Budapest memorandum with Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Belarus. The Ukraine agreed to surrender their vast nuclear weapons cache from the Soviet Union, in exchange for the nuclear powers protecting and respecting their sovereignty. It was supposed to mark a clear end of Cold War era hostilities. In 2014, Russia broke the agreement in Crimea. Last week, we all but gave them the green light. Using excuses like Zelensky didn’t wear a suit and didn’t thank us profusely enough, Donald Trump and J.D. Vance verbally assaulted Zelensky and notified Moscow that we will not honor our agreements to our allies anymore. To be fair, I don’t think we should give Barack Obama a pass here- he chose to not engage Russia in any significantly agressive way after they invaded Crimea in 2014, which also violated the Budapest memorandum. To be clear, if Ukraine had said no and kept their nuclear weapons, no one would be invading them today. They did so under an agreement with us. We’re going to break that agreement now. One could argue we already have.
I doubt Ukraine surrendering some land to Putin’s Russia means the United States is in physical danger. At least not right now. The signal is out though to other American allies in the region- they can’t depend on us. If Putin comes for them, they’re on their own. Putin, who was stationed in Europe when the Berlin Wall fell, probably will. He doesn’t believe Slavic nations in Eastern Europe should be independent. Obviously those nations don’t agree. So now the threat of him creating some neo-Soviet version of the Russian Empire is real. In Berlin, Warsaw, and capitols all over the Eastern Bloc, the alarms are going off. They’ll start ramping up for potential war, and a few of them will even try to build nuclear bombs. This hellish reality will roll back nearly 30 years of peace in Europe.
It’s almost like everything America won with the end of the Cold War will be rolled back at once. But without the word “almost.”
Six months ago right now I was laying in the ICU, having just lost half my foot and fighting an infection in my blood that was an immediate threat to my continued existence. That I was closer to death that day than I have ever been at any other moment in my life can almost get lost in the shuffle now. Today I got up, had some coffee while my cousin and his fiancée visited, then went to the chiropractor, visited my grandparents grave, drove around a bit, and took myself out for lunch. I can walk on my new leg, even hands free. I can drive and come and go as I please. My life is not, and will never again be totally “normal,” but it is trending back that way. I’ll soon return to the gym. I’m making travel plans. You could be forgiven at this point if you forget how close to the other side I was six months ago, it would be fair to say that life has begun to move on. For all things a season, and maybe very soon a new one for me.
Try as I might though, I’m changed by it. Maybe it was the weeks in the hospital bed, alone with my thoughts. The dark thoughts of how close I was to a funeral, and the pondering of who would of been there. There was also the beauty of watching the sun rise over the crosses on tops of buildings in Allentown’s East Side. There was the hours of putting on my headphones and listening to my favorite songs, and how some of them have taken on a different meaning to me now. All I had time to do was think. What and who I found important after hasn’t been the same since.
I’m recovering, and you should view me that way. I’m not quite the same though. I still don’t go out and go to places the way I used to, and only part of that is from physical challenges. I’m just changed by it. In no small way, I find my former self disinteresting. I find important parts of my life feeling trivial. I’m largely unconcerned now, but not in a bad way. I guess something like this just changes how you view people in your life. It definitely has for me, for better or for worse. You don’t just go back to how things were, even as you heal. To do so would almost feel like a betrayal of what was done for you. It would be to sell short the perspective you have been gifted with now.
I’m lucky. Modern science and medicine is amazing, and I’m grateful for it. The doctors, nurses, and techs who took care of me are true miracle workers. One of these days I’ll see the pathway and realize why they did it.
“This is not who we are.” During Trump’s first term as President this was the standard position of Democrats and lefties of all stripes. There was at least some argument for that position then- while Trump had been elected in 2016, it seemed more like an unlikely error than the judgment of the people. After all, he had only received 46% of the vote, and Hillary Clinton had more votes than him. No one can claim that now. Joe Biden’s attempt at normalcy was basically rejected by the public. Trump won again. This time he won the popular vote too. And he has a supportive Congress. It can’t be argued now- the public wants to disrupt the status quo. They don’t mind the “mean tweets” and nastiness. They’re for this.
Oh I know the refrains. “What about egg prices,” and other mocking statements. It is sort of true. Trump made mildly aggressive statements about Gaza and Ukraine, said provocative but limited things about federal employees, and generally focused on what was “wrong” in Biden’s America. So sure, in theory he’s now overstating his mandate. Let’s not pretend he didn’t say he would be chaos. He did say he would overturn Washington’s “status quo.” He promised to be a hurricane. He is.
Democrats are simply unable to respond. Congressional Democrats can’t stop anything. State Democrats have extremely limited ability to stand in the way. Rallies and protests often come off looking more silly than strong. Unlike 2017, people aren’t rallying to the cause. The Democratic Party is the least popular it has been in a generation plus. Further left elements are less popular yet. They all lack the credibility with the public to attack. People aren’t taking them seriously.
Trump promised to hurt the people who oppose him. He’s carrying through on it. Unfortunately we may have to see ourselves through some of this mess before there is a public will to stop it.
Apocalypse Vibes 